Kapadokya Gezgin Profili Analizi : Kriz Sonrasi Değişim Ve Dinamikleri

Öz

Kapadokya, dünyada mevcut 1031 miras alanı içerisinde, bünyesinde hem doğal hem de kültürel özellikler barındıran 32 ender bölge arasında (%3) yer almaktadır. Doğal, tarihi ve kültürel alanda yüksek ürün çeşitliliği ile ön plana çıkan önemli bir destinasyondur. Diğer yandan gezginlerin seyahat tercihleri sadece destinasyon özelliklerine değil, o ülkedeki makro kriterlere (güvenlik, ulaşılabilirlik gibi) bağlı olarak da değişkenlik göstermektedir. Pazarlama karması kapsamında pazarı bölümlendirebilmek, hedef pazarlara farklı hizmetler sunabilmek adına son derece önemlidir. Pazarda meydana gelen değişimleri ölçümlemek, bir yandan neden sonuç ilişkisi kurulabilmesini sağlarken, aynı zamanda geleceğe ilişkin alınması gereken tedbirleri/gelişim noktalarını da tayin eder. Bu çerçevede, bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Nevşehir İli (Kapadokya) sınırları içerisinde 2011-2015 yılları arasında konaklayan yabancı turistlerin, ülke, konaklama gün sayısı ve dönemi bazında benzerliklerine göre sınıflandırılması; bu ülkelerin/grupların Kapadokya ziyaretini etkileyen faktörlerin ve etki düzeylerinin belirlenmesidir. Bu ülkelerin kendi aralarındaki ilişkilerinin, stokastik eğilimi de dikkate alarak ortaya konması, çalışmanın ikincil amacını oluşturmaktadır. Bu kapsamda kümeleme analizi ile gözlemlerin benzerlikleri temel alınarak objektif bir sınıflandırma yapılmıştır. Gezginlerin Kapadokya ziyaretine etki eden faktörler ise panel regresyon analizi ile analiz edilmiştir. Uzun vadede birlikte hareket eden ülke gruplarını belirlemek için ise eşbütünleşme analizi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, incelenen dönemde Fransa, Almanya ve Türkiye'nin incelenen kriterler bazında farklı bir tutum sergiledikleri; Kanada, Fransa, HongKong ve Japonya'nın ise uzun dönemde birlikte hareket ettikleri görülmüştür. Avrupa Birliği ülkeleri ise Kapadokya seyahatlerinde orta kuvvette benzer bir davranış sergilemişlerdir. Sabit etkiler panel regresyon sonuçları ise, ekonomik büyümenin, farklı ülkelerden Kapadokya'ya gelen turist sayıları üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Kapadokya, gezgin profili değişimi, kümeleme analizi, eşbütünleşme analizi, panel regresyon

CAPPADOCIA VISITOR PROFILE ANALYSIS : POST-CRISIS CHANGE AND ITS DYNAMICS

Abstract

Cappadocia which is both UNESCO cultural and natural heritage area is in 32 (3%) very rare area in 1031 UNESCO heritage sites. It is an important destination with high potential product diversity in the field of natural, historical and cultural circumstances. On the other hand, destinations' performances do not just depend on the feature of destinations, but also the macro-criteria (such as security or transportation capabilities) of related countries. To be able to make segmentation in terms of marketing mix theory, analyzing the visitor profile has crucial role. Measuring changes on market provides decision makers to make root cause analysis and put forward which countermeasures should be taken/developed. In this perspective, aim of this study is to classify the visitors stayed in Cappadocia country, term and stayed nights basis and to determine the factors (and effect levels) affecting their travel choices in a macro environmental perspective between 2011 and 2015. The secondary aim of the study is to figure out the long-term relationship among countries' travel behaviors to Cappadocia considering stochastic trend. For these aims, cluster analysis is done for objective classification. The factors (and affects level) that affect visitors' travel are figured out via setting panel regression model. In addition, cointegration analysis is used to figure out the long-term relationship among visitors. Results show that while Germany, France and Turkey had unique visiting time pattern which means that they all have a specific visiting behavior, European Union countries had medium sized similar strength on Cappadocia travel. And Canada, Hong Kong, France and Japan had long term similar visiting pattern. Finally, fixed affect panel regression analysis results present that GDP is the only significant variable that affects visitors' visiting behavior for Cappadocia.

Keywords

• Cappadocia, destination profile change, cluster analysis, cointegration analysis, panel regression

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