DO SHOCKS HAVE PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY EFFECTS ON CONTAINER TRAFFIC IN TURKISH PORTS? / Şokların Türk Limanlarındaki Konteyner Trafiği Üzerindeki Etkisi Kalıcı Mıdır Geçici Midir?

Abstract

Container ports are one of the most important parts of the supply chain. Due to high investment and operating costs, the structure and predictability of current and future demands are very important. To investigate this structure, this study aims to determine whether the shocks to the export and import container quantities handled in Turkish ports are temporary or permanent. Both standard unit root tests and unit root tests with structural breaks were applied to export and import container amounts. According to the results, when the structural breaks are considered, it has been determined that both export and import container quantities are stationary. This situation shows that the effects of the shocks to the container traffic are temporary, the applied policies lose their effect in a short time and the future container traffic can be predicted using historical data.

Keywords

• Unit Root Test
• Structural Break
• Container Traffic
• Policy Effectiveness

DO SHOCKS HAVE PERMANENT OR TRANSITORY EFFECTS ON CONTAINER TRAFFIC IN TURKISH PORTS? / Şokların Türk Limanlarındaki Konteyner Trafiği Üzerindeki Etkisi Kalıcı Mıdır Geçici Midir?

Öz

Konteyner limanları, tedarik zincirinin en önemli parçalarından biridir. Yüksek yatırım ve işletme maliyetleri nedeniyle, mevcut ve gelecekteki taleplerin yapısı ve öngörülebilirliği çok önemlidir. Bu yapıyı incelemek için bu çalışma, Türkiye limanlarında elleçlenen ihracat ve ithal konteyner miktarlarına yönelik şokların geçici mi yoksa kalıcı mı olduğunu belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. İthal ve ihraç konteyner miktarlarına hem standart birim kök testleri hem de yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlara göre yapısal kırılmalar göz önüne alındığında hem ihraç hem de ithal konteyner miktarlarının durağan oldukları tespit edilmiştir. Bu durum, şokların konteyner trafiğine olan etkilerinin geçici olduğunu, uygulanan politikaların kısa sürede etkisini yitirdiğini ve geçmiş veriler kullanılarak gelecekteki konteyner trafiğinin tahmin edilebileceğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Birim Kök Testi
• Yapısal Kırılma
• Konteyner Trafiği
• Politika Etkinliği

Kaynakça

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