GENİŞ KARADENİZ BÖLGESİNDE ASKERİ HARCAMA VE ÜLKE KIRILGANLIĞI İLİŞKİSİ / The Relationship between Military Expenditure and State Fragility in Wider Black Sea Region

Öz

Çalışmanın amacı 2006-2019 dönemi itibarıyla Geniş Karadeniz Bölgesi içinde yer alan ülkelerde askeri harcamalar ile ülke kırılganlığı arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktır. Çalışmanın temel hipotezi askeri harcamalar ile ülke kırılganlığı arasında uzun dönemli nedensel bir ilişki olduğudur. Tahmin için panel analiz yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Bu bağlamda Delta homojenlik testi, Breusch-Pagan yatay kesit bağımlılık testi, Pesaran CADF birim kök testi, Westerlund eş bütünleşme testi ve Dimutrescu-Hurlin nedensellik testi tercih edilmiştir. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, askeri harcamalar ile ülke kırılganlıkları arasında uzun dönemde eş bütünleşme ilişkisi vardır. Ayrıca, askeri harcamalar ile ülke kırılganlıkları arasında karşılıklı nedensel bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Panel Eşbütünleşme
• Askeri Harcama
• Ülke Kırılganlığı
• Yatay-Kesit Bağımlılığı

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MILITARY EXPENDITURE AND STATE FRAGILITY IN WIDER BLACK SEA REGION / Geniş Karadeniz Bölgesinde Askeri Harcama Ve Ülke Kırılganlığı İlişkisi

Abstract

The aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between military expenditures and state fragility in the countries within Wider Black Sea Region as of 2006-2019. The main hypothesis of the study is that there is a long-term causal relationship between military expenditure and state fragility. Panel analysis method was used to the estimation. In this context, Delta homogeneity test, Breusch-Pagan and Pesaran CD Cross-sectional dependency test, Pesaran CADF unit root test, Westerlund cointegration test, FMOLS and DOLS long-term parameter estimation tests and Dimutrescu-Hurlin causality test were have been preferred. According to the findings of the study, there is a positive long-term relationship between the military expenditures and state fragility. In other words, if there is a 1% increase in the state fragility, military expenditures increase by approximately 16%. Also, a reciprocal causal relationship was found between the variables. While there is a statistically significant causal relationship from military expenditures to the state fragility at 5% (0.0261), there is a statistically significant causal relationship from state fragility to the military expenditures at 5% (0.0120) as well.

Keywords

• Military Expenditure
• Fragile States Index
• Cross-Sectional Dependency
• State Fragility
• Homogeneity

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