Politik, Ekonomik ve Finansal Risklerin Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımlar Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye için politik, ekonomik ve finansal risklerin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar (DYY) üzerindeki etkisi ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Aylık verilerin kullanıldığı analiz 1992:M1-2016:M12 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, uzun dönemde düşük politik ve ekonomik riskin (politik ve ekonomik istikrarın) DYY üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönem sonuçlarına göre ise finansal istikrar DYY’yi pozitif yönde etkilerken, politik ve ekonomik istikrar, beklentilerin aksine, DYY’yi negatif yönde etkilemektedir. Bu sonuçlar politik, ekonomik ve finansal istikrarın Türkiye örneğinde doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerini güçlü bir şekilde etkilediğini göstermektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Politik Risk
• Ekonomik Risk
• Finansal Risk
• DYY

The Effect of Political, Economic and Financial Risks on Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the effect of political, economic, and financial risks on foreign direct investments (FDI) was analyzed for Turkey using the ARDL bounds test approach. The analysis using monthly data covers the period of 1992:M1-2016:M12. According to the results of the study, found that low political and economic risk (political and economic stability) have a positive effect on FDI in the long run. According to the short-term results, while financial stability affects FDI positively, contrary to expectations, political and economic stability affects FDI negatively. These results show that political, economic, and financial stability strongly affects foreign direct investment inflows in Turkey. 

Keywords

• Political Risk
• Economic Risk
• Financial Risk
• FDI

Kaynakça

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