Aktif İşgücü Politikaları İşsizlikle Mücadelede Ne Kadar Etkili? Türkiye İçin Nicel Bir Etki Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de aktif işgücü politikalarının (AİP) işsizlik ve açık iş oranları üzerindeki etkisini ampirik olarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. 2016-2024 dönemine ait TÜİK ve İŞKUR verileri kullanılarak, Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla'dan (GSYH) aktif işgücü politikalarına ayrılan kaynakların toplam, kadın, erkek ve genç işsizlik oranları ile açık iş oranı üzerindeki etkileri regresyon analiziyle incelenmiştir. Normallik, çoklu doğrusallık ve otokorelasyon testleriyle model geçerliliği sağlanmıştır. Bulgular, AİP harcamalarının açık iş oranını istatistiksel olarak anlamlı derecede etkilediğini, ancak genel ve demografik gruplardaki işsizlik oranları üzerinde belirgin bir etki oluşturmadığını göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, aktif politikaların açık pozisyonların doldurulmasında etkili olduğunu, ancak işsizliği azaltmak için demografik özelliklere uygun hedefli politikaların gerekliliğine işaret etmektedir. Literatürde Türkiye'de AİP’nin işsizlik ve açık iş oranlarına etkisini inceleyen çalışmalar sınırlıdır. Bu araştırma, özellikle aktif işgücü politikalarının etkinliğini açık iş oranları ve işsizlik verileri üzerinden değerlendirerek literatürdeki boşluğu doldurmayı amaçlamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Aktif işgücü politikaları
• İşsizlik
• Regresyon analizi
• Açık iş
• Türkiye

How Effective Are Active Labor Market Policies in Combating Unemployment? A Quantitative Analysis of Effectiveness for Türkiye

Abstract

This study aims to empirically analyze the impact of active labor market policies (ALMP) on unemployment and job vacancy rates in Turkey. Using data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) and the Turkish Employment Agency (İŞKUR) for the period 2016-2024, the effects of resources allocated from the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to active labor market policies on total, female, male, and youth unemployment rates and the job vacancy rate were examined using regression analysis. Model validity was ensured using normality, multicollinearity, and autocorrelation tests. The findings show that AIP expenditures significantly affect the vacancy rate but do not have a pronounced effect on unemployment rates in general and demographic groups. These results indicate that active policies are effective in filling open positions but highlight the need for targeted policies tailored to demographic characteristics to reduce unemployment. Few studies have examined the impact of ALMPs on unemployment and open job rates in Turkey. This study aims to fill this gap in the literature by evaluating the effectiveness of active labor market policies, particularly through open job rates and unemployment data.

Keywords

• Active labour force policies
• Unemployment
• Regression analysis Open work
• Türkiye

Kaynakça

1. Akbaş, S. (2015). Aktif işgücü piyasası politikalarının etki değerlendirmesi: Denizli ili örneği. Denizli: Pamukkale Üniversitesi/Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
2. Albrecht, J., Navarro, L. and Vroman, S. (2009). The effects of labour market policies in an economy with an informal sector. The Economic Journal, 119(539), 1105-1129.
3. Algan, Y., Crépon, B. and Glover, D. (2020). Are active labor market policies directed at firms effective? Evidence from a randomized evaluation with local employment agencies. J-PAL Working Paper. 5484_Active-Labor-Markets-Evidence-from-Public-Service-France_January2020.pdf
4. Anna, B. and Slavomíra, M. (2017). Active labour market policies of selected European countries and their competitiveness. Journal of Competitiveness, 9(3), 5-21.
5. Ayta, F. ve Şen, M. (2023). Türkiye’de kadın istihdamının genel görünümü: istihdamın artırılması kapsamında seçilmiş ülke örnekleri. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 9(2), 421-454.
6. Benda, L., Koster, F. and van der Veen, R. J. (2019). Levelling the playing field? Active labour market policies, educational attainment and unemployment. International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 39(3/4), 276-295.
7. Boeri, T. and Burda, M. C. (1996). Active labor market policies, job matching and the Czech miracle. European Economic Review, 40(3-5), 805-817.
8. Boone, J. and Van Ours, J. C. (2004). Effective active labor market policies. Iza Discussion Papers, No. 1335.

9. Burger, A., Kluve, J., Vodopivec, M. and Vodopivec, M. (2022). A comprehensive impact evaluation of active labour market programmes in Slovenia. Empirical Economics, 62(6), 3015-3039.
10. Caliendo, M. and Schmidl, R. (2016). Youth Unemployment and Active Labor Market Policies in Europe. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 5(1), 1.
11. Calmfors, L. and Skedinger, P. (1995). Does active labour market policy ıncrease employment? Theoretical considerations and some empirical evidence from Sweden. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 11(1), 91-109.
12. Ciarini, A., Franconi, A. and Villa, A. (2023). Social investment, labour market participation and public debt sustainability: an empirical analysis of European countries. Social Policy and Administration, 57(7), 999-1013.
13. Clemens, M. A., Lewis, E. G. and Postel, H. M. (2018). Immigration Restrictions as Active Labor Market Policy: Evidence from the Mexican Bracero Exclusion. American Economic Review, 108(6), 1468-1487.
14. Crepon, Bruno and van den Berg, Gerard J., (2016). Active labor market policies Annual Review of Economics, 8, 521-546. Didmanidze, I., Motscobili, I., Didmanidze, M. and Zakaradze, Z. (2023). Unemployment and problems of employment in an economically less active region. In Modeling, Control and Information Technologies: Proceedings of International Scientific and Practical Conference, No. 6, 33-34.
15. Diriöz, S. Ç. (2012). İstihdamın artırılmasında aktif işgücü politikalarının rolü. T.C. Kalkınma Bakanlığı, Yayınlanmış Uzmanlık Tezi.
16. Eppel, R., Huemer, U., Mahringer, H. and Schmoigl, L. (2024). Active labour market policies: What works for the long-term unemployed?. The BE Journal of Economic Analysis and Policy, 24(1), 141-185.
17. Escudero, V. (2018). Are active labour market policies effective in activating and integrating low-skilled individuals? An International Comparison. IZA Journal of Labor Policy, 7(1), 1-26.
18. Escudero, V., Kluve, J., López Mourelo, E. and Pignatti, C. (2018). Active labour market programmes in Latin America and the Caribbean: evidence from a meta-analysis. The Journal of Development Studies, 55(12), 2644-2661.
19. Estevão, M. (2007). Labor policies to raise employment. IMF Staff Papers, 54, 113-138.
20. Fay, R. G. (1996). Enhancing the effectiveness of active labour market policies: evidence from programme evaluations in OECD countries. OECD Labour Market and Social Policy Occasional Papers, No.18, 1-64.
21. Filges, T., Smedslund, G., Knudsen, A. S. D. and Jørgensen, A. M. K. (2015). Active labour market programme participation for unemployment insurance recipients: A systematic review. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 11(1), 1-342.
22. Forsythe, E., Kahn, L., Lange, F. and Wiczer, D. (2020). Labor demand in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from vacancy postings and UI claims. Journal of Public Economics, 189, 104238-104238.
23. Franz, W. and Siebeck, K. (1990). Theoretical aspects of the relation between unemployment and vacancies. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/101483
24. Gökçe, P. Ö. and Erol, H. (2022). Aktif istihdam politikalarının etki değerlendirmesi: Aydın ili örneği. Çalışma ve Toplum, 5(75), 2795-2838.
25. Gürbüz S. ve Şahin F. (2015). Sosyal bilimlerde araştırma yöntemleri. 2. Baskı. Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık.
26. Haapanala, H. (2022). Carrots or sticks? A multilevel analysis of active labour market policies and non‐standard employment in Europe. Social Policy and Administration, 56(3), 360-377.
27. Heckman, J. J., LaLonde, R. J. and Smith, J. A. (1999). The Economics and Econometrics of Active Labor Market Programs. In Handbook of Labor Economics Elsevier.
28. Hur, H. (2019). Government expenditure on labour market policies in OECD countries: responding to the economic crisis. Policy Studies. 40(6), 585-608.
29. ILO, (2024). Employment and social outlook in the world: Trends 2024, https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@inst/documents/publication/wcms_908142.pdf
30. ILO, (2025). World employment and social outlook: Trends 2025, https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2025-01/WESO25_Trends_EN_WEB5.pdf
31. ILOSTAT, (2025). ILOSTAT data explorer https://rshiny.ilo.org/dataexplorer02/?lang=en&segment=indicator&id=UNE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_NB_A
32. Irandoust, M. (2023). Active labor market as an instrument to reduce unemployment. Journal of Government and Economics, 9, 100065.
33. İŞKUR, (2024). İstatistik yıllıkları, 2024 yıllık tabloları, https://www.iskur.gov.tr/kurumsal/istatistikler/istatistik-yilliklari/
34. İŞKUR, (2025). İşgücü piyasası araştırma raporları, https://www.iskur.gov.tr/kurumsal/raporlar/isgucu-piyasasi-raporlari/isgucu-piyasasi-arastirmasi-raporlari/2024/
35. Jackman, R., Pissarides, C. and Savouri, S. (1990). Labour market policies and unemployment in the OECD. Economic Policy, 5(11), 449-490.
36. Kalaycı, Ş. (2010). SPSS uygulamalı çok değişkenli istatistik teknikleri. 5. Baskı. Ankara: Asil Yayın Dağıtım.
37. Karagöz, Y. (2016). SPSS 23 ve AMOS 23 uygulamalı istatistiksel analizler. 2. Baskı, Ankara: Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık.
38. Kluve, J. (2010). The effectiveness of European active labor market programs. Labour Economics, 17(6), 904-918.
39. Knapińska, M. and Woźniak-Jasińska, K. (2024). The impact of labour market policies on outcomes in OECD countries: An empirical analysis. Journal of International Studies, 17(2), 38-52.
40. Laffineur, C., Barbosa, S. D., Fayolle, A. and Nziali, E. (2017). Active labor market programs’ effects on entrepreneurship and unemployment. Small Business Economics, 49(4), 889-918.
41. Lastauskas, P. and Stakėnas, J. (2024). Labor market policies in high-and low-interest rate environments: Evidence from the Euro area. Economic Modelling, 141, 106918.
42. Levy-Yeyati, E., Montané, M. and Sartorio, L. (2019). What works for active labor market policies?. Cambridge: CID Faculty Working Paper, No. 358.
43. Lubik, T. A. (2021). Revisiting the Beveridge curve: why has it shifted so dramatically?. Richmond Fed Economic Brief, 21(36).
44. Lubishtani, A. (2018). The effectiveness of active labour market policies in reducing unemployment in transition economies (Doctoral dissertation, Staffordshire University).
45. Mascolo, F., Bearth, N., Muny, F., Lechner, M. and Mareckova, J. (2024). From average effects to targeted assignment: a causal machine learning analysis of Swiss active labor market policies. arXiv preprint arXiv:2410.23322.
46. McKenzie, D. (2017). How effective are active labor market policies in developing countries? A critical review of recent evidence. The World Bank Research Observer, 32(2), 127-154.
47. Nie, J. and Struby, E. (2011). Would active labor market policies help combat high us unemployment?. Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 35.
48. Orfao, G. and Malo, M. Á. (2023). Are active labour market policies effective for the older unemployed? A meta-evaluation. Ageing and Society, 43(7), 1617-1637.
49. Penn, R. and Huang, V. (2023). Job openings reach record highs in 2022 as the labor market recovery continues. Monthly Labor Review. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2023/article/job-openings-reach-record-highs-in-2022-as-the-labor-market-recovery-continues.htm
50. Pignatti, C. and Van Belle, E. (2021). Better together: active and passive labor market policies in developed and developing economies. IZA Journal of Development and Migration, 12(1), 1-27.
51. Plavgo, I. (2023). Education and active labour market policy complementarities in promoting employment: reinforcement, substitution and compensation. Social Policy and Administration, 57(2), 235-253.
52. Sahnoun, M. and Abdennadher, C. (2018). The assessment of active labor market policies: evidence from OECD countries. Economia Politica, 35(2), 257-283.
53. Sahnoun, M. and Abdennadher, C. (2020). A simultaneous-equation model of active labour market policies and change in unemployment rate: evidence from OECD countries. Policy Studies, 43, 3-20.
54. Sahnoun, M. and Abdennadher, C. (2025). The moderating role of corruption-nexus between active labor market policies and unemployment in OECD countries. Social Policy and Society, 1-14.
55. Špadina, H. (2020). Responsible employment policy: comparative analysis of croatian, swedish and danish active labour market policies. Zbornik Radova Pravnog fakulteta u Nišu 59(89), 181-203.
56. Speckesser, S. S., Gonzalez Carreras, F. J. and Kirchner Sala, L. (2019). Active labour market policies for young people and youth unemployment: An analysis based on aggregate data. International Journal of Manpower, 40(8), 1510-1534.
57. Stuken, T., Lapina, T. and Korzhova, O. (2022). Active labor market employment policy as a factor in reducing the unemployment duration. Herald of Omsk University. Series: Economics. 20(1), 115-124
58. Şen, M. (2018). İşsizlikle mücadelede İŞKUR mesleki eğitim kurslarının istihdama katkısı: Trabzon ilinde bir araştırma. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 10(18), 200-220.
59. Taşdöken, Ö., ve Bölük, G. (2023). Türkiye’de işsizlikle mücadelede aktif istihdam politikalarının etkililiğinin değerlendirilmesi. Sosyal Bilimler Araştırmaları Dergisi, 18(2), 271-286.
60. TÜİK, (2025). İşgücü İstatistikleri, https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/?kn=72&locale=tr
61. Vooren, M., Haelermans, C., Groot, W. and Maassen van den Brink, H. (2019). The effectiveness of active labor market policies: A meta‐analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 33(1), 125-149.
62. Wiśniewski, Z. (2022). The effectiveness of polish active labour market policies. Bulletin of geography. Socio-Economic Series, (56), 125-132.