Türkiye’den OECD Ülkelerine Nitelikli İşgücü Göçü: Bir Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Türkiye, sahip olduğu iktisadi ve demografik dinamikleri paralelinde uluslararası göç trendlerinin oldukça zengin bir şekilde gözlemlenebileceği bir ülkedir. Yurtdışına göç eden insan sayısı geçtiğimiz on yıllık dönemlerde sürekli artış eğiliminde olmuştur. Bu eğilim kadın ve nitelikli gruplarda çok daha da belirgin olarak gözlenmiştir. Öte yandan, mikro verilerin yetersizliği ülkenin göç dinamiklerinin detaylı bir şekilde incelenmesine engel olmuştur. Bu çalışmanın amacı söz konusu boşluğu doldurmak adına, Türkiye’den göç eden bireyler üzerinden göç ve insan sermayesi arasındaki ilişkiyi irdelemektir. Bu doğrultuda, ilk olarak IAB’nin Brain Drain Veritabanı kullanılarak, 1980-2010 yılları arasında Türkiye’den 20 OECD ülkesine yönelik gerçekleşen göçün boyut ve niteliği, cinsiyet ve eğitim seviyesi ayrımlarında analiz edilmektedir. Bu toplamcı analizi takiben, gözlemlenen göç trendlerinin altında yatan dinamikler rassal etkili panel veri modeli ile incelenmektedir. Tahmin sonuçları, cinsiyet, zaman ve eğitim değişkenlerinin uluslararası işgücü hareketliliği ile yakından ilişkili olduğuna, ve Türkiye çıkışlı göçmenlerin eğitim seviyesi dağılımındaki belirgin sola çarpıklığın zaman içerisinde kaybolduğuna işaret etmektedir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Uluslararası göç,Göçmen,Nitelik,Türkiye,Rassal Etkiler

An Outline of Skilled Emigration from Turkey to OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis

Öz

Turkey provides rich evidence for the current international migration trends given its economic and demographic dynamics. The number of people moving overseas to settle permanently has been following an increasing trend in the recent decades, particularly remarkable for skilled and female groups. However, given the micro-level data limitations the migration outlook of Turkey is still quite bleak. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap and analyze the relationship between migration and human capital in the context of Turkish immigrants. First, aggregate trends of the Turkish emigrants in the 20 OECD destination countries by gender and educational level over the 1980-2010 period are examined using the IAB Brain Drain dataset. Next, a random effects panel estimation is applied to scrutinize the underlying dynamics of observed migration patterns adopting economic size, unemployment, demographic profile, urbanization and proximity as explanatory variables. The results reveal that gender, time and education are found as significantly related to international mobility trends, and the substantially left-skewedness of the distribution of Turkish emigrants along educational level is gradually fading away over time.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• International migration,Emigrants,Skill,Turkey,Random effects

Kaynakça

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