THE NEXUS BETWEEN INCOME INEQUALITY AND CO2 EMISSIONS: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM TÜRKİYE

Öz

This study examines the short- and long-run relationships among per-capita CO₂ emissions, per-capita income, income inequality, foreign direct investment (FDI), financial development, and trade openness in Türkiye from 1975 to 2022. The study analyzes these relationships using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach. The bounds-test results indicate a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. The long-run estimates show that per-capita income and income inequality have positive and statistically significant effects on CO₂ emissions. The long-run FDI coefficient is positive but statistically significant only at the 10% level, whereas the long-run coefficients on financial development and trade openness are not statistically significant. In the short run, income growth increases emissions. The error-correction coefficient indicates that approximately 38.7% of the previous period’s disequilibrium is corrected within one year. The Granger-causality results indicate a bidirectional predictive relationship between income and emissions. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of incorporating income distribution and social justice considerations into environmental and macroeconomic policy design.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CO₂ Emissions
• Income Inequality
• Foreign Direct Investment
• ARDL Bounds Testing

GELİR EŞİTSİZLİĞİ İLE CO₂ EMİSYONLARI ARASINDAKİ BAĞLANTI: TÜRKİYE’DEN AMPİRİK KANITLAR

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de 1975–2022 döneminde kişi başına CO₂ emisyonları, kişi başına gelir, gelir eşitsizliği, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, finansal gelişme ve ticari açıklık arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkileri incelemektedir. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler, Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (ARDL) sınır testi yaklaşımı kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Sınır testi sonuçları, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönem tahminleri, kişi başına gelir ile gelir eşitsizliğinin CO₂ emisyonları üzerinde pozitif ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı etkileri olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların uzun dönem katsayısı pozitif olmakla birlikte yalnızca %10 anlamlılık düzeyinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır; finansal gelişme ve ticari açıklığın uzun dönem katsayıları ise istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Kısa dönemde gelir artışı emisyonları artırmaktadır. Hata düzeltme katsayısı, önceki dönemde oluşan dengesizliğin yaklaşık %38,7’sinin bir yıl içinde giderildiğini göstermektedir. Granger nedensellik sonuçları, gelir ile emisyonlar arasında iki yönlü bir öngörü ilişkisine işaret etmektedir. Bulgular, çevre ve makroekonomi politikalarının tasarımında gelir dağılımı ve sosyal adalet boyutlarının bütüncül bir yaklaşımla ele alınmasının önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• CO₂ Emisyonları
• Gelir Eşitsizliği
• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım
• ARDL Sınır Testi

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