RECAI ÜLKELERİNDE EKONOMİK İSTİKRAR VE ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ İLİŞKİSİ: BOOTSTRAP PANEL NEDENSELLİK ANALİZİ

Yıl 2021, , 1 - 18, 31.10.2021

Tunahan Hacıimamoğlu , Ali Rıza Sandalcılar

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.930927

Öz

Ekonomik istikrar ve enerji tüketimi arasındaki ilişkinin varlığı ve yönünün tespit edilmesi karar alıcıların uygulayacakları politikalarda önemli ve belirleyici bir unsur olmaktadır. Enerjinin barınma, ısınma, ulaşım ve ekonomik faaliyetler için girdi konumu dikkate alındığında yaşamın idame ettirilmesi ve sürdürülebilirlik açısından önemli bir faktör olduğu açıktır. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın amacı yenilenebilir ve yenilenemez enerji tüketimi ile ekonomik istikrar arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini araştırmaktır. Bu bağlamda 19’u gelişmiş ve 16’sı gelişmekte olan toplam 35 ülkenin 1990-2016 dönemini kapsayan ekonomik istikrar endeksi, yenilenebilir enerji tüketimi ve yenilenemez (fosil) enerji tüketimi verileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre panelin geneli için gelişmekte olan ülkelerde değişkenler arasında anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisi saptanamaz iken, gelişmiş ülkelerde yenilenebilir enerji tüketiminden ekonomik istikrara, ekonomik istikrardan da yenilenemez enerji tüketimine tek taraflı bir nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlardan hareketle gelişmiş ülkeler panelinin geneli için sırasıyla “büyüme hipotezi” ve “koruma hipotezinin”, gelişmekte olan ülkeler panelinin geneli için ise “yansızlık hipotezinin” geçerli olduğu ortaya koyulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Stability, Renewable Energy, Non-Renewable Energy, RECAI Countries, ICRG

Teşekkür

Bizleri her daim teşvike eden T.C. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi iktisat Bölümü Başkanı Prof. Dr. Ali Rıza SANDALCILAR'a ve bölümdeki diğer hocalarıma canı gönülden teşekkür ediyorum.

Kaynakça

• Akarca, A. T., & Long II, T. V. (1979). Energy and employment: a time-series analysis of the causal relationship. Resources and Energy, 2(2-3), 151-162.
• Akarca, A. T., & Long, T. V. (1980). On the relationship between energy and GNP: a reexamination. The Journal of Energy and Development, 326-331.
• Allen, E. L., Cooper, C. L., Edmonds, F. C., Edmonds, J. A., Reister, D. B., Weinberg, A. M., ... & Zelby, L. W. (1976). US energy and economic growth, 1975--2010 (No. ORAU/IEA-76-7). Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge, Tenn.(USA).
• Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2010). Renewable energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from a panel of OECD countries. Energy policy, 38(1), 656-660.
• Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2011). The renewable energy consumption–growth nexus in Central America. Applied Energy, 88(1), 343-347.
• Apergis, N., & Salim, R. (2015). Renewable energy consumption and unemployment: evidence from a sample of 80 countries and nonlinear estimates. Applied Economics, 47(52), 5614-5633.
• Armeanu, D. Ş., Vintilă, G., & Gherghina, Ş. C. (2017). Does renewable energy drive sustainable economic growth? multivariate panel data evidence for EU-28 countries. Energies, 10(3), 381.
• Baldwin, S. F. (2002). RENEWABLE ENERGY: PROGRESS AND PROSPECTS. Physics Today, 55(4), 62-67.
• Bhattacharyya, S. C. (2019). Energy Investment Issues. In Energy Economics (pp. 469-491). Springer, London.
• Bhattacharya, M., Paramati, S. R., Ozturk, I., & Bhattacharya, S. (2016). The effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from top 38 countries. Applied Energy, 162, 733-741.
• Bowden, N., & Payne, J. E. (2010). Sectoral analysis of the causal relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and real output in the US. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 5(4), 400-408.
• BP (2020). BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 69. Edition.
• Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The review of economic studies, 47(1), 239-253.
• Brini, R., Amara, M., & Jemmali, H. (2017). Renewable energy consumption, International trade, oil price and economic growth inter-linkages: The case of Tunisia. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 76, 620-627.
• Chaudhry, M. O., Faridi, M. Z., & Riaz, S. (2015). Energy Crisis and Macroeconomic Stability in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences (PJSS), 35(1).
• De Miera, G. S., del Río González, P., & Vizcaíno, I. (2008). Analysing the impact of renewable electricity support schemes on power prices: The case of wind electricity in Spain. Energy Policy, 36(9), 3345-3359.
• Eden, S. H., & Hwang, B. K. (1984). The relationship between energy and GNP: further results. Energy economics, 6(3), 186-190.
• Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876.
• Fang, Y. (2011). Economic welfare impacts from renewable energy consumption: The China experience. Renewable and sustainable energy Reviews, 15(9), 5120-5128.
• Halkos, G. E., & Tzeremes, N. G. (2013). Renewable energy consumption and economic efficiency: Evidence from European countries. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 5(4), 041803.
• Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the macroeconomy since World War II. Journal of political economy, 91(2), 228-248.
• Hanff, E., Dabat, M. H., & Blin, J. (2011). Are biofuels an efficient technology for generating sustainable development in oil-dependent African nations? A macroeconomic assessment of the opportunities and impacts in Burkina Faso. Renewable and sustainable energy reviews, 15(5), 2199-2209.
• Hitch, C. J. (1978). Energy conservation and economic growth.
• Howell, L. D. (2013). ICRG Methodology. Syracuse, NY: PRS Group.
• Hudson, E. A., & Jorgenson, D. W. (1974). US energy policy and economic growth, 1975-2000. The Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science, 461-514.
• Konstantin, P., & Konstantin, M. (2018). Power and Energy Systems-Engineering Economics. Cham: Springer International Publishing.
• Kraft, J., & Kraft, A. (1978). On the relationship between energy and GNP. The Journal of Energy and Development, 401-403.
• Long II, T. V., & Schipper, L. (1978). Resource and energy substitution. Energy, 3(1), 63-82.
• Mathiesen, B. V., Lund, H., & Karlsson, K. (2011). 100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth. Applied energy, 88(2), 488-501.
• Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S., & Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014). Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach. Economic Modelling, 37, 386-394.
• Morana, C. (2017). Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area. Economic Modelling, 64, 82-96.
• Nepal, R. (2012). Roles and potentials of renewable energy in less-developed economies: The case of Nepal. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(4), 2200-2206. Nkomo, J. C. (2005). Energy and economic development: challenges for South Africa.
• Özcan, B., & Özturk, I. (2019). Renewable energy consumption-economic growth nexus in emerging countries: A bootstrap panel causality test. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 104, 30-37.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels. Empirical Economics, 1-38.
• Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
• PRS Group (2018). International Country Risk Guide Methodology. Retrieved in May. https://www.prsgroup.com/wp- content/uploads/2018/01/icrgmethodology.pdf.
• RECAI (2015). Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index, https://energypress.gr/sites/default/files/media/recai_march_2015.pdf.
• RECAI (2019). Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index.
• Sadorsky, P. (2009). Renewable energy consumption and income in emerging economies. Energy policy, 37(10), 4021-4028.
• Sebri, M., & Ben-Salha, O. (2014). On the causal dynamics between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and trade openness: Fresh evidence from BRICS countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 39, 14-23.
• Shahbaz, M., Raghutla, C., Chittedi, K. R., Jiao, Z., & Vo, X. V. (2020). The effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from the renewable energy country attractive index. Energy, 207, 118162.
• Wang, Z., Wei, W., Luo, J., & Calderon, M. (2019). The effects of petroleum product price regulation on macroeconomic stability in China. Energy Policy, 132, 96-105.
• WEF (2019). Fostering Effective Energy Transition 2019 edition.
• Wen, Y. (2008). A note on oil dependence and economic instability. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12(05), 717-723. WESP (2019). World Economic Situation and Prospect Report, https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/wesp2019_en.pdf.
• Yang, X., He, L., Xia, Y., & Chen, Y. (2019). Effect of government subsidies on renewable energy investments: The threshold effect. Energy Policy, 132, 156-166.