TASARRUF-YATIRIM VE SERMAYE HAREKETLİLİĞİNİN ANALİZİ: YÜKSELEN PİYASA EKONOMİLERİ ÜZERİNDE BİR UYGULAMA (1992-2014)

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 18, 1 - 22, 01.01.2017

İbrahim Hüseyni , Ömer Yalçınkaya

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.279888

Cited By: 2

Öz

ÖZ

Ülkelerin sürdürülebilir bir ekonomik büyüme ivmesini yakalayabilmeleri üzerinde yurtiçi tasarruflar ile yurtiçi yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkilerin varlığı/nasıllığı son derece belirleyici bir rol oynamaktadır. Nitekim ekonomik büyüme verimlilik artışlarından bağımsız olarak yatırımlarla gerçekleşmekte, yatırımlar ise ancak tasarruflarla karşılanabilmektedir. Bu noktada, yurtiçi tasarrufların yurtiçi yatırımları karşılama oranının ya da yurtiçi yatırımların yabancı tasarruflara olan bağımlılığının belirlenmesi gerekmektedir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmada, yurtiçi tasarruflar ile yurtiçi yatırımlar arasındaki ilişkilerin uluslararası arenada BRICS, MINT ve Kırılgan Beşli olarak lanse edilen yükselen piyasa ekonomilerinde Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezi çerçevesinde, 1992-2014 dönemine ait verilerle ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan yeni nesil panel veri analizi metodolojisi ile incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda, tanımlanan ülke gruplarında yurtiçi tasarrufların yurtiçi yatırımları karşılama oranlarının, yani sermaye hareketliliğinin derecesinin ülke gruplarına göre önemli ölçüde değiştiği belirlenmiştir. Bununla birlikte, çalışmada BRICS, MINT ve Kırılgan Beşli ülke grupları üzerinde Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin geçerli olmadığı, aksine bu ülkelerde Feldstein-Horioka Paradoksunun nispeten sürmekte olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Yurtiçi Tasarruf-Yatırım, Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezi, Yeni Nesil Panel Veri Analizi.

JEL Sınıflandırması: C5, C23, E20, F43.

Anahtar Kelimeler

tasarruf, yatırım

Kaynakça

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