Monthly Natural Gas Consumption’s Modelling and Its Trend Analysis For Yozgat In Turkey

Öz

In this study an energy consumption modelling for long term (December 2006- March 2016) forecasting of monthly natural gas consumption in households and industry area for Yozgat city, Turkey was presented. In this context, it can be said that this paper has two purposes. One of them is the application and accuracy of the artificial neural networks. Estimate performances are compared with each other, and the estimates of the optimal models are evaluated with the monthly recorded natural gas consumption according to root mean square error, mean absolute error, and correlation coefficient. The other purpose of the study is to analysis trend of monthly natural gas consumption of Yozgat by using Mann-Kendall and a new method recently proposed by Şen. The results showed that the artificial neural networks gave satisfactory results in estimating monthly natural gas consumption. In the trend analysis, it was seen that both Mann-Kendall and Şen trend tests gave statistically significant increasing trend at 95% confidence level for monthly natural gas consumption of Yozgat.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Artificial neural networks,monthly natural gas consumption,Mann-Kendall trend test,Şen trend test,Yozgat

YOZGAT İLİ İÇİN AYLIK DOĞAL GAZ TÜKETİMİNİN MODELLENMESİ VE EĞİLİM ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki Yozgat ilinde ev ve sanayide aylık doğal gaz tüketiminin uzun vadeli (Aralık 2006-Mart 2016) tahmini için bir enerji tüketimi modeli oluşturulmuştur. Bu bağlamda, bu çalışmanın iki amacı olduğu söylenebilir. Bunlardan biri yapay sinir ağlarının uygulanması ve doğruluğudur. Modellerin tahmin performansları birbirleriyle karşılaştırılır ve en uygun modellerin tahminleri, ortalama karesel hatanın karekökü, ortalama mutlak hata ve korelasyon katsayısına göre aylık olarak kaydedilen doğal gaz tüketimi ile değerlendirilir. Çalışmanın diğer amacı, Mann-Kendall eğilim testini kullanarak Yozgat'ın aylık doğal gaz tüketiminin eğilimleri ve yakın zamanda Şen tarafından önerilen yeni bir yöntemi analiz etmektir. Çalışma sonuçları, yapay sinir ağlarının aylık doğal gaz tüketiminin tahmininde tatmin edici sonuçlar verdiğini gösterdi. Eğilim analizinde, hem Mann-Kendall hem de Şen eğilim testlerinin, Yozgat'ın aylık doğal gaz tüketimi için % 95 güven düzeyinde istatistiksel olarak önemli bir artış eğilimi görüldü.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yapay sinir ağları,Aylık doğal gaz tüketimi,Mann-Kendall eğilim testi,Şen eğilim testi,Yozgat

Kaynakça

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