THE EFFECT OF ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY ON INNOVATION: AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH FOR OECD COUNTRIES

Yıl 2022, Sayı: 4, 707 - 722, 26.10.2022

Serap Barış

https://doi.org/10.51551/verimlilik.1082748

Öz

Purpose: Innovation is one of the key factors behind the long-term economic growth and competitiveness of nations. Therefore, it is important to know the factors that determine innovation. Firms are affected by many internal and external factors in their innovation decisions. In recent years, it has been suggested in the literature that one of these factors affecting innovation is the uncertainty of economic policy. In this context, the aim of the study is to empirically examine the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and innovation in OECD countries.

Methodology: Using panel data analysis methods, the data of 14 OECD countries for the period 1997-2019 were included in the analysis according to the data availability criterion. In the analysis process, firstly, preliminary tests (horizontal section dependence, homogeneity and unit root tests) were performed, and then Westerlund (2007) cointegration test was performed to determine the long-term relationship between the variables. Finally, the analysis was completed with Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test.

Findings: Analysis findings show that there is no cointegration relationship between economic policy uncertainty and innovation in 14 OECD countries. The results of the causality test also support the cointegration test and reveal that there is no causal relationship between these variables.

Originality: This study differs from other studies in the literature by investigating the effects of economic policy uncertainty on innovation in the sample of OECD countries and with different causality tests.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Innovation, Economic Policy Uncertainty, Real Option Theory, Panel Data Analysis

EKONOMİK POLİTİKA BELİRSİZLİĞİNİN İNOVASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: OECD ÜLKELERİ İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ARAŞTIRMA

Öz

Amaç: İnovasyon, ulusların uzun dönemli ekonomik büyümelerinin ve rekabet gücünü artırmalarının ardındaki temel faktörlerden biridir. Dolayısıyla inovasyonu belirleyen faktörlerin bilinmesi önemlidir. Firmalar inovasyon kararlarında firma içi ve dışı pek çok faktörden etkilenmektedir. İnovasyonu etkileyen bu faktörlerden birinin de ekonomi politikası belirsizliği olduğu literatürdeson yıllarda öne sürülmektedir. Bu bağlamda çalışmanın amacı, ekonomik politika belirsizliği ve inovasyon ilişkisini OECD ülkeleri özelinde ampirik olarak incelemektir.

Yöntem: Panel veri analiz yöntemlerinin kullanılarak, verilerin ulaşılabilirliği kriterine göre 14 OECD ülkesinin 1997-2019 dönemi verileri analize katılmıştır. Analiz sürecinde ilk olarak ön testler (yatay kesit bağımlılığı, homojenlik ve birim kök testleri), sonrasında değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin tespit edilmesi amacıyla Westerlund (2007) eşbütünleşme testi yapılmıştır. Son olarak Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testi ile analiz tamamlanmıştır.

Bulgular: Analiz bulguları 14 OECD ülkesi özelinde ekonomik politika belirsizliği ile inovasyon arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olmadığını göstermektedir. Nedensellik testi sonuçları da eşbütünleşme testini destekler nitelikte olup bu değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

Özgünlük: Bu çalışma, ekonomik politika belirsizliğinin inovasyon üzerindeki etkilerini OECD ülkeleri örnekleminde ve farklı nedensellik testleriyle araştırarak literatürdeki diğer çalışmalardan farklılaşmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

İnovasyon, Ekonomik Politika Belirsizliği, Reel Opsiyon Teorisi, Panel Veri Analizi

Kaynakça

• Archibugi, D.,Filippetti, A. ve Frenz, M. (2013). “The Impact of the Economic Crisis on Innovation: Evidence from Europe”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(7), 1247-1260.
• Atanassov, J., Julio, B. ve Leng, T. (2015). “The Brightside of Political Uncertainty: The Case of R&D”, SSRN, 2693605.
• Bai, J. ve Ng, S. (2004), “A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration”, Econometrica, 72(4), 1127-1178.
• Baker, S., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S. (2012). “Policy Un¬certainty: A New Indicator”, CentrePiece, Paper No.CEPCP362, 16(3), 21-23.
• Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. ve Davis, S.J. (2016). “Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636.
• Baltagi, B.H. (2008). “Econometric Analysis of Panel Data”, Fourth Edition, John Wiley & Sons, West Sussex.
• Barış, S. (2019). “Türkiye’de Teknolojik Yenilik ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Verimlilik Dergisi, 1, 83-112.
• Bhattacharya, U., Hsu, P.H., Tian, X. ve Xu, Y. (2017), “What Affects Innovation More: Policy or Policy Uncertainty?”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 52, 1869-1901.
• Bloom, N. (2014). “Fluctuations in Uncertainty”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28, 153-176.
• Breuer, B., Mcnown, R. ve Wallace, M. (2002). “Series-Specific Unit Root Test with Panel Data”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(5), 527-546.
• Breusch, T.S. ve Pagan, A.R. (1980), “The Lagrange Multiplier Test and İts Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics”, The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
• Coluccia, D., Dabić, M., Del Giudice, M., Fontana, S. ve Solimene, S. (2020). “R&D Innovation Indicator and Its Effects on the Market. An Empirical Assessment from a Financial Perspective”, Journal of Business Research, 119, 259-271.
• Cui, X., Wang, C., Liao, J., Fang, Z. ve Cheng, F. (2021). “Economic Policy Uncertainty Exposure and Corporate Innovation Investment: Evidence from China.” Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 67, 101533.
• Çetin, M. (2013). “The Hypothesis of Innovation-based Economic Growth: A Causal Relationship”. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 11, 1-16.
• Dumıtrescu, E.I. ve Hurlın, C. (2012).“Testing for Granger Noncausality in Heterogeneous Panels”, Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
• Dakhli, M., ve de Clercq, D. (2004). “Human Capital, Social Capital, and Innovation: A Multi-country Study”, Entrepreneurship & Regional development, 16(2), 107-128.
• EPU (2022). “Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index”, https://www.policyuncertainty.com/global_monthly.html (Erişim Tarihi: 02.2.2022).
• Falk, M. (2009). “High-tech Exports and Economic Growth in Industrialized Countries”,Applied Economics Letters, 16(10-12), 1025-1028.
• Freeman, C. and Soete, L., (2003). “Yenilik İktisadı”, (Çev. Ergun Türkcan), Dördüncü Baskı, TÜBİTAK Yayınları, Ankara.
• Greenland, A., Ion, M. and Lopresti, J. (2019). “Exports, Investment and Policy Uncertainty”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 19, 1248-1288.
• Guan, J., Xu, H., Huo, D., Hua, Y. ve Wang, Y. (2021). “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Innovation: Evidence from China”. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 67, 101542.
• Gulen, H. ve Ion, M. (2016). “Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment”, Review of Financial Studies, 29(3), 523-564.
• Güriş, B. (2015). “Panel Vektor Otoregresif Modeller ve Panel Nedensellik”, Stata ile Panel Veri Modelleri, (Editör: Guris, S.), Birinci Baskı, Der Yayınları, İstanbul.
• Hadri, K. ve Kurozumi, E. (2012). “A Simple Panel Stationarity Test in the Presence of Serial Correlation and a Common Factor”, Economic Letters, 115(1), 31-34.
• Hasan, I. ve Tucci, C.L. (2010). “The Innovation-Economic Growth Nexus: Global Evidence”, Researchpolicy, 39(10), 1264-1276.
• He, F., Ma, Y. ve Zhang, X. (2020). “How does Economic Policy Uuncertainty Affect Corporate Innovation? Evidence from China Listed Companies”, International Review of Economics & Finance, 67, 225-239.
• Jung, S. ve Kwak, G. (2018). “Firm Characteristics, Uncertainty and Research and Development (R&D) Investment: the Role of Size and Innovation Capacity”, Sustainability, 10(5), 1668.
• Khan, M. A.,Qin, X., Jebran, K. ve Ullah, I. (2020). Uncertainty and R&D Investment: Does Product Market Competition Matter?, Research in International Business and Finance, 52, 101167.
• Lai, Y.-L., Lin, F.-J., ve Lin, Y.-H. (2015). “Factors Affecting Firm’s R&D Investment Decisions”, Journal of Business Research, 68 (4), 840-844.
• Li, Y. ve Solaymani, S. (2021). “Energy Consumption, Technology Innovation and Economic Growth Nexuses in Malaysian”i Energy, 232, 121040.
• Lou, Z., Chen, S., Yin, W., Zhang, C. ve Yu, X. (2022). “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Innovation: Evidence from a Risk-taking Perspective”, International Review of Economics & Finance, 77, 78-96.
• Maradana, R.P.,Pradhan, R.P., Dash, S., Zaki, D.B., Gaurav, K., Jayakumar, M. ve Sarangi, A.K. (2019). “Innovation and Economic Growth in European Economic Area Countries: The Granger Causality Approach”. IIMB Management Review, 31(3), 268-282.
• Mecit, T.D. ve Atılgan, T. (2007). “Yatırım Kararlarının Değerlendirilmesinde Reel Opsiyonlar Yaklaşımı ve Hazır Giyim Sektörüne Bir Uygulaması”, Tekstil ve Konfeksiyon, 17(3), 200-206.
• OECD (2005), “Oslo Manual: Guidelines for Collecting and Interpreting Innovation Data”,3rd Edition, https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/science-and-technology/oslo-manual_9789264013100-en, (Erişim Tarihi: 23.03.2022)
• Panousi, V. ve Papanikolaou, D. (2012). “Investment, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Ownership”, The Journal of Finance, 67(3), 1113-1148.
• Pece, A.M., Simona, O.E.O. ve Salisteanu, F. (2015). Innovationand Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis for CEE Countries”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 26, 461-467.
• Pesaran, H. (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests For Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics Working Paper, 435.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2007). "A Simple Panel UnitRoot Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
• Pesaran, M.H. and Yamagata, T. (2008). "Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels", Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
• Pesaran, M.H.,Ullah, A. ve Yamagata, T. (2008), “A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross SectionIndependence”, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
• Phan, H.V., Nguyen, N.H., Nguyen, H.T. ve Hegde, S. (2019). “Policy Uncertainty and Firm Cash Holdings”, Journal of Business Research, 95, 71-82.
• Porter, M.E. (1990). “The Competitive Advantage of Nations”, The Macmillan Press, London.
• Poyago-Theotoky, J. (1998), “R&D Competition in a Mixed Duopoly Under Uncertainty and Easy Imitation”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 26(3), 415-428.
• Pradhan, R.P.,Arvin, M.B., Hall, J.H. ve Nair, M. (2016). “Innovation, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Eurozone Countries”, Applied Economic Letters, 23(16), 1141-1144.
• Qamruzzaman, M. ve Jianguo, W. (2020). “The Asymmetric Relationship between Financial Development, Trade Openness, Foreign Capital Flows, and Renewable Energy Consumption: Fresh Evidence from Panel NARDL Investigation”, Renewable Energy, 159, 827-842.
• Qamruzzaman, M.,Tayachi, T., Mehta, A.M. ve Ali, M. (2021). “Do International Capital Flows, Institutional Quality Matter for Innovation Output: The Mediating Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty”, Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 7(2), 141.
• Saleem, H.,Jiandong, W., ve Khan, M.B. (2018). “The Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Innovation in China: Empirical Evidence from Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Tests”, Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1514929.
• Schumpeter, J.A. (1934/2012). “The Theory of Economic Development with a New Introduction”, by John E. Elliott, Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
• Shankar, N. (2020). “Role of Global Economic Policy Uncertainty on Firms Participation in Innovation and New Product Introductions: an Empirical Study in African SMEs”, Transnational Corporations Review, 12(4), 360-378.
• Shen, H., Zhang, M., Liu, R. ve Hou, F. (2020). “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Innovation: Evidence From China”, Asian Economics Letters, 1(1).
• Sinha, D. (2008). “Patents, Innovations and Economic Growth in Japan and South Korea: Evidence from Individual Country and Panel Data”. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 8(1), 181-188.
• Solow, R.M. (1957). “Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 39(3), 312-320.
• Tajaddini, R., ve Gholipour, H.F. (2021). “Economic Policy Uncertainty, R&D Expenditures and Innovation Outputs”, Journal of Economic Studies, 48(2), 413-427.
• Telatar, O.M., Değer, M.K. ve Doğanay, M.A. (2016). “Teknoloji Yoğunluklu Ürün İhracatının Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği (1996:Q1-2015:Q3)”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 30(4), 921-934.
• van Uden, A., Knoben, J. ve Vermeulen, P. (2017). “Human Capital and Innovation in Sub-Saharan Countries: A Firm-Level Study”, Innovation, 19(2), 103-124.
• van Vo, L. ve Le, H.T.T. (2017). “Strategic Growth Option, Uncertainty, and R&D Investment”, International Review of Financial Analysis, 51, 16-24.
• Westerlund, J. (2007), “Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
• Westerlund, J. (2008). “Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23, 193-233.
• William, M. ve Fengrong, W. (2022). “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Industry Innovation: Cross Country Evidence”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 84, 208-228.
• Xu, Z. (2020). “Economic Policy Uncertainty, Cost of Capital, and Corporate Innovation”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 111, 105698.
• Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2020). “Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi Stata Uygulamaları”, Beta Yayınevi, İstanbul.