Energy Supply Security Index: An Analysis for Turkish Economy

Öz

Energy consumption in Turkish economy has been rising continuously and composition of energy mix will be substantially changed in forthcoming periods due to environmental concerns and economic sustainability. On the other hand, energy shortage expected to increase because of accelerating economic activities and increase in population. In addition, structure of energy markets and demand/supply balance in Turkey are closely related with financial stability (current account deficit). Therefore, there is need to balance between energy consumption-economic growth and environment duality in energy policy. Conversely, any disruptions in energy supply will lead to destabilize economy, interruption in output and suspend social life in the long term. Accordingly, rising and ennsuring energy security would be helpful for Turkish economy. In this frame we assesed energy security in line with Cabalu (2010) on the basis of energy intensity, import dependency, domestic production and geopolitical risk indicators. Lastly, we derived a composite security index from them. Results showed that Turkey is vulnerable in terms of fossil fuels due to insufficient domestic production and huge share in the national energy mix. On that note, policy makers can target possible sources of supply disruptions and mitigate their effects by taking measures against risks in energy security.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Energy Security Index
• Energy Mix
• Energy Policy

Enerji Arz Güvenliği Endeksi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Bir Analiz

Öz

Türkiye ekonomisinde enerji tüketimi sürekli artmaya devam etmekte ve enerji karmasının, çevresel endişeler ve sürdürülebilir büyüme yüzünden önemli derecede değişmesi beklenmektedir. Diğer yandan artan ekonomik faaliyetler ve nüfus artışı ekonominin enerji açığını artırmaktadır. Ayrıca Türkiye’deki enerji piyasalarının yapısının ve arz/talep dengesizliklerinin finansal istikrar ve ekonomik sürdürülebilirlik ile olan yakın ilişkisi unutulmamalıdır. Bu yüzden büyüme ve çevre ikilemindeki denge mutlaka sağlanmalıdır. Aksine enerji arzında yaşanabilecek problemler uzun vadede, ekonomide istikrarsızlık yaratacak, toplam çıktıda kesintiler ve günlük hayatta aksamalar görülebilecektir. Bu yüzden Türkiye ekonomisi için enerji güvenliğini sağlamak ve artırmak faydalı olacaktır. Bu çerçevede enerji güvenliği Cabalu (2010) çalışmasındakine uygun şekilde değerlendirilmiş ve enerji arz güvenliği için enerji yoğunluğu, ithal bağımlılığı, yerli üretim ve jeopolitik risk göstergeleri kullanılmıştır. Son olarak bu dört gösterge bağlamında Türkiye ekonomisi için kompozit risk endeks hesaplanmıştır. Sonuçlara göre fosil tabanlı yakıtların enerji karması içindeki yüksek payı ve yetersiz yerli üretim kırılganlığı artırmaktadır. Bu bağlamda karar vericiler bu doğrultuda enerji güvenliğini artıcı önlemler alarak arz kesintileri karşısında doğabilecek olumsuz sonuçları hafifletebilirler. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Enerji Güvenliği Endeksi
• Enerji Karması
• Enerji Politikası

Kaynakça

1. Alhajji, A., James, F. and Williams, L. (2003). Measures of petroleum dependence and vulnerability in OECD Countries. Middle East Economic Survey, 46(16).
2. Ang, B. W., Choong W. L. and Ng, T. S. (2015). Energy security: definitions, dimensions and indexes. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42(2015), 1077-1093.
3. APERC. (2007). A Quest for Energy Security in the 21st Century; Resources and Constraints Institute of Energy Economics, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre. Accessed address: https://aperc.or.jp/file/2010/9/26/APERC_2007_A_Quest_for_Energy_Security.pdf, (29.01.2020).
4. Aslan, F. (2016). Turkey’s foreign dependence on energy and wind power as an alternative energy resources. U.U. International Journal of Social Inquiry, 9(2), 1-31.
5. Awerbuch, S. (2006). Portfolio based electricity generation planning: policy implementations for renewables and energy security. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 11, 671-693.
6. Awerbuch, S. and Berger, M. (2003). Applying portfolio theory to EU electricity planning and policy making. IEA/EET working paper. IEA Paris.
7. Badea, A. C. (2010). Energy security indicators. European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC) Institute for Energy Security Unit. Belgrade, May 19-21 2010. Accessed address: http://www.drustvo-termicara.com/resources/files/7fa5460.pdf, (29.03.2020).
8. Balat, M. (2010). Security of energy supply in turkey: challenges and solutions. October 2010. Energy Conversion and Management, 51(10), 1998-2011.

9. Barnes, D. F., Khankder, S. R. and Samad H. A. (2010). Energy access, efficiency, and poverty how many households are energy poor in Bangladesh?. The World Bank Development Research Group Agriculture and Rural Development. Policy Research Working Paper. 5332, January 2010.
10. Barton, B. (2004). Energy security: managing risk in a dynamic legal and regulatory environment. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
11. Below, A. (2013). Obstacles in energy security: an analysis of congressional and presidential framing in the United States. Energy Policy. 62(2013), 860-868.
12. Birol, Y. E. (2020). A comparative analysis on The European Union Member States and Turkey in terms of natural gas supply security. Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute. 38, 231-247.
13. Bollen, J. C. (2008). Energy security, air pollution and climate changes; an integrated cost benefit approach. Milieu- en Natuurplanbureau (MNP) Publication, Publication Number; 500116004. Bilthoven, 2008. Accessed address: https://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/downloads/500116004.pdf, (07.042020).
14. Brown, H. M., Rewey, C. and Gagliano, T. (2003). Energy Security. National Conference of State Legislatures. 7700 East First Place, Denver Colorado 80230 [phone].444., Washington, D.C. 20001, [phone], April 2003, Accessed address: http://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/docs/prepare/NCLSEnergy%20Security.pdf, (17.01.2020).
15. Cabalu, H. (2010). Indicators of security of natural gas supply in Asia. Energy Policy. 38, 218–225.
16. Can, E. (2006). Does Turkish energy policy effectively address security of supply issues?, The Centre for Energy, Petroleum and Mineral Law and Policy at the University of Dundee, CEPMLP Annual Review. 10.
17. Celebi, Y. İ. (2006). Turkey’s energy policies and the Eurasia region. Thesis submitted to the graduate school of social sciences, of Middle East Technical University, Department of International Relations, April 2006, Ankara.
18. Cherp, A. and Jewell, J. (2014). The concept of energy security; beyond the four as. Energy Policy. 75(2014), 415-421.
19. Datar, M. K. (2000). Stock market liquidity: measurement and implications. Fourth Capital Market Conference. December 2000, Accessed address: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/a6d5/2e86bb82f8a8c15c523c3e0a c2cbf075d579.pdf, (06.04.2020).
20. Demirtaş, Ö. (2013), Energy view of Turkish economy. Is Bank Economic Research Department. October 2013, İstanbul, Access address: https://ekonomi.isbank.com.tr/ContentManagement/Documents/ar_13_2013. Pdf, (19.02.2020).
21. Departments of Energy and Climate Change. (2009). Energy market outlook report 2009. Presented to Parliament pursuant to Section 172. of the Energy Act 2004. HC 176, London: The Stationery Office, Access address: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data /file/247999/0176.pdf, (24.01.2020).
22. DoE. (2006). U.S. Department of Energy: Strategic Plan. Department of Energy. Washington, 2006.
23. ECCSD. (2019). Tapping the potential for energy savings in Turkey. Environment Climate Change and Sustainable Development. Documents or the World Bank. Europe and Central Asia Region. 52210-TR, Accessed address:http://siteresources.worldbank.org/TURKEYEXTN/Resources/3617111294661147811/TurkeyEE-en.pdf, (09.03.2020).
24. El-Badri, A. S. (2008). Energy Security and Supply. OPEC Secretary General, at the Chatham house conference entitled Middle East Energy 2008 Risk and Responsibility: The New Realities of Energy Supply. London, UK, 4 February 2008, Accessed address: http://www.Opec.org/opec_web/en/862.htm, (20.01.2020).
25. Elkind, J. (2010). Energy security, call for a broader agenda, energy security, economics, politics, strategies and implications. Part 6, 119-149, Brookings Institution Press, Washington, D.C.
26. EMRA-Energy Market Regulatory Authority. (2012). Turkish Energy Market: An Investor’s Guide 2012, Ankara.
27. Energy Charter. (2007). Review of the investment climate and market structure in the energy sector. Energy Charter Secretariat 2007. Boulevard de la Woluwe, 56-B-1200 Brussels, Belgium.
28. Erdal, L. (2012). Determinants of the energy supply security and renewable energy sources as an alternative. Master Thesis. Adnan Menderes University Institute of Social Sciences, Aydın.
29. Erdin, C. and Ozkaya, G. (2019). Turkey’s 2023 Energy Strategies and investment opportunities for renewable energy sources: Site selection based on ELECTRE. Journal of Sustainability, 11(7), 21-36. doi:10.3390/su11072136.
30. Erdogan, S., Gedikli, A. and Genç, S. Y. (2018). An overview of Turkey’s national energy policies. December 2018, Cambridge Open Monograph International Academics, Politico Economic Evaluation of Current Issues.
31. European Commission. (2000). Green Paper towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply. COM/2000/0769 final. Accessed address: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52000DC0769&from=EN, (21.01.2020).
32. Faas, H. Gracceva, F. Fulli, G. and Mesera, M. (2008). European security – A European perspective. Part I: diversity on energy security: an international perspective. Energy Security, NATO Science for peace and security series, Netherlands: Springer.
33. Feygin, M. and Satkin, R., (2004). The Oil Reserves-to-Production Ratio and Its Proper Interpretation, Natural Resources Research. 13(1), 57-60.
34. Gnansounou, E. (2008). Assessing the energy vulnerability: case of industrialized countries. Energy Policy, 36(10), 3734-3744.
35. Gökçe, C. (2014). Energy Vulnerability Index For European Union And Turkey. Journal of Academic Researches and Studies. 6(10), 56-71.
36. Greene, D. L., Hopson, J. L., and Li, J., (2005). Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist’s perspective. Energy Policy, 34(5), 515-531.
37. Grubb, M., Butler, L. and Twomey, R (2006). Diversity and security in UK electricity generation: the influence of low-carbon objectives. Energy Policy, 34(18), 4050-4062.
38. Gupta, E. (2008). Oil vulnerability index of oil – importing countries. Energy Policy, 36, 1195-1211.
39. Haluzan, N. (2013). Energy Security – Meaning, Definition and Importance. Accessed address: http://renewablestalk.blogspot.com.tr/2013/01/energy-security-meaning-definition-and.html, (05.02.2020).
40. Hisarcıklıoğlu, R. (2010). The global energy challenges and Turkey private sector perspective. Turkish Policy Quarterly, 9(2), 27-31.
41. Hughes, L. and Lipscy, P. Y. (2013). The politics of energy. Annual Review Political Science, 16(1) 449–469. doi:10.1146/annurev-polisci-07221 1-143240.
42. IEA. (2004). Energy security and climate changes policy interactions, an assessment framework. IEA Information paper, December 2004 (Blyth & Lefevre).
43. IEA. (2007). Energy security and climate change; assessing interactions. International Energy Agency, Paris, Accessed address: https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-security-and-climate-policy. (31.03.2020).
44. IEA. (2020). Energy security ensuring the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price. Accessed address: https://www.iea.org/areas-of-work/ensuring-energy-security. (31.03.2020).
45. Investment Office of Turkish Republic. (2019). Energy. Accessed address: https://www.invest.gov.tr/en/Sectors/Pages/energy.aspx, (27.02.2020).
46. Jansen, J., van Arkel, W. and Boots, M. (2004). Designing indicators of long-term energy supply security, ECN-C-04-007, January 2004, The Energy research Centre of Netherlands.
47. Karagöl, T. Kavaz, İ., Kaya, S. and Özdemir, B. Z. (2017). National energy and mining policy of Turkey. SETA Analysis, July 2017. No: 35.
48. Kocaslan, G. (2014). International energy security ındicators and Turkey’s energy security risk score. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 4(4), 735-743.
49. Kruyt, B., Van Vuuren, D. P., De Vires, H. J. M. and Groenenberg, H. (2009). Indicators for energy security. Energy Policy, 37(6), 2166-2181.
50. Labenderia, X. and Manzano B. (2012). Some Economic Aspects of Energy Security. Economics for Energy, WP/09/2012.
51. Le Coq, C, and Paltseva, E. (2009). Measuring the security of external energy supply in the European Union. Energy Policy, 37(11), 4474-4481.
52. Lesbirel, S. H. (2004). Diversification and energy security risks; the Japanese case. Japanese Journal of Political Science, 5(1), 1-22.
53. Lilliestam, J. and Ellenbeck, S. (2011). Energy security and renewable electricity traded will Deserted make Europe vulnerable to the “energy weapon”? Energy Policy, 39(6), 3380-3391. doi:10.1016/j.enpol. 2011.03.035, (01.04.2020).
54. Löschel, A., Moslener, U. and Rubbelke, D. (2010). Indicators of energy security in industrialized countries. April 2010. Energy Policy, 38(4), 1665-1671.
55. Lu, W., Su, M., Zhang, Y., Chen, B. and Liu B. (2014). Assessment of energy security in China based on ecological network analysis: A perspective from the security of crude oil supply. Energy Policy, 74(2014), 406-413.
56. Martchamadol, J. and Kumar, S. (2014). The Aggregated Energy Security Performance Indicator (AESPI) at national and provincial level. Applied Energy, 127, 219-238.
57. MFA. (2019). Turkey’s energy profile and strategy. Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Access address: http://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkeys-energy-strategy.en.mfa, (14.02.2020).
58. Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. (2020). MENR Energy Balance Tables 1970-2018. Accessed address: https://www.eigm.gov.tr/tr-TR/Denge-Tablolari/Denge-Tablolari?page=1, (31.03.2020).
59. Mulders, F. M. M., Hettelaar, J. M. M. and Van Bergen, F. (2006). Assessment of the global fossil fuel reserves and resources for TIMER, TNO: 2006.
60. Nordhaus, W. D. (1979). The efficient use of energy resources. Availability of energy resources and alternative energy supply technologies. Yale University Press, 1979.
61. Ölz, S., Sims R. and Kirchner N. (2007). Contributions of renewable to energy security. International Energy Agency, Information Paper, April 2007.
62. Peker, H. S. (2015). Energy supply security of Turkey and measuring: An application on Turkey’s energy supply security. Çankırı Karatekin University Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences. 5(2), 763-783.
63. Scheepers, M. J. J., Seebregts, A. J., De Jong, J. J. and Maters, J. M. (2007). EU standards for energy security of supply-updates on the crisis capability index and the supply / demand index quantification for EU-27. Energy research Centre of the Netherlands – ECN – E – 07 - 004. Energy Planning and Policy, Access address: https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:39001606, (04.04.2020).
64. Sharma, N. and Tryggestad, C. (2019). The decoupling of GDP and energy growth: A CEO guide. Access address: https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/the-decoupling-of-gdp-and-energy-growth-a-ceo-guide#, (05.01.2020).
65. Sovacool B. and Brown, M. A. (2009). Competing dimensions of energy security: an international perspective. Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy. Working Paper Series 45, January 13, 2009.
66. Stirling, A. (1999). On the economics and analysis of diversity. Science Policy Research Unit University of Sussex. SPRU-Electronic working papers series, Paper No: 28.
67. Stocking, A. and Constantino, M. (2012). What Is Energy Security? Congressional Budget Office Energy Security in the United States (May 2012), Access address: https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/112th-congress-2011-2012/graphic/43232-infographic-energysecurity0.pdf, (23.01.2020).
68. TUİK. (2020). Main statistics. Accessed address: http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist, (23.01.2020).
69. Turton, H. and Barreto, L. (2006). Long-term security of energy supply and climate changes. Energy Policy, 34(15), 2232-2250.
70. UNDP. (2007). Overcoming vulnerability to rising oil prices. options for Asia and Pacific. ISBN: 978-92-1-126213-1.
71. USGS. (2000).World petroleum assessment 2000, Accessed address: https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-062-03/FS-062-03.pdf, (05.04.2020).
72. Van Ruijven, B., Urban, F., Benders, R., Moll, H., Van der Sluijs, J., De Vries, B. and Van Vuuren, D. (2008). Modeling energy and development: an evaluation of models and concepts. World Development Journal, 36(12), 2801-2821.
73. Von Hippel, D., Savage, T. and Hayes, P. (2011). Introduction to the Asian energy security project: Project organization and methodologies. Energy Policy, 39(11), 6712-6718.
74. WEF-World Economic Forum. (2012). Energy for economic growth energy vision update 2012. Chapter 1; The Role of the Energy Sector in the Economy, Access address: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_EN_EnergyEconomicGrowth_IndustryAgenda_2012.pdf, (09.01.2020).
75. Winzer, C. (2011). Conceptualizing energy security. EPRG Working Paper No: 1123. Cambridge Working Paper in Economics, 1151(1-36).
76. Yang, J. and Chen, B. (2015). Measuring energy security of China. B. Sudhakara Reddy and S. Ulgiati (Ed.), Energy Security and Development, Springer Books. doi:10.1007/978-81-322-2065-7.
77. Yao, L. and Chang, Y. (2014), Energy security in China: A quantitative analysis and policy implications. Energy Policy, 67, 595-604.
78. Yergin, D. (1991). The prize; the epic quest for oil, money and power. Free Press. Simon& Schuster Inc., New York 10020.
79. Yergin, D. (2006). Ensuring energy security. Foreign Affairs, March-April 2006 (69–82).