VUCA KOŞULLARINDA TÜRKİYE’NİN SERAMİK SOFRA EŞYALARI İHRACATINDA CİDDİ DARALMA RİSKİ: AÇIKLANABİLİR MAKİNE ÖĞRENMESİ YAKLAŞIMI

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’nin seramik sofra eşyaları ihracatında gelecek yıl ortaya çıkabilecek ciddi daralma riskini incelemektedir. Analiz, 2003–2024 döneminde HS 691110 ve HS 691200 ürün grupları için 168 hedef ülkeyi kapsayan ülke–ürün–yıl verisine dayanmaktadır. Ciddi daralma, bir pazara yapılan ihracatın izleyen yılda en az %30 azalması olarak tanımlanmıştır. Lojistik regresyon, Random Forest, HistGradientBoosting ve XGBoost modelleri zaman sırasını koruyan eğitim, doğrulama ve test dönemlerinde karşılaştırılmıştır. Ortak 975 gözlemli test örnekleminde geliştirilmiş XGBoost modeli 0,6655 ROC-AUC, 0,4247 PR-AUC ve 0,6260 dengeli doğruluk değerine ulaşmıştır. Yeni model, ilk modele göre daha az yanlış alarm üretmiş; buna karşılık bazı gerçek daralma vakalarını kaçırmıştır. Açıklanabilirlik analizi, geçmiş ihracat eğilimi, oynaklık, birim değer hareketleri, hedef ülkedeki enflasyon ve büyüme ile pazar yoğunlaşmasının tahminlerde öne çıktığını göstermiştir. Bulgular, modelin kesin bir tahmin sistemi olmaktan çok, yakından izlenmesi gereken hedef pazarları belirlemeye yardımcı olan bir erken uyarı aracı olarak kullanılabileceğine işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• VUCA
• seramik sofra eşyaları
• ihracat daralması
• pazar riski
• XGBoost
• erken uyarı

PREDICTING SEVERE EXPORT CONTRACTION RISK IN TÜRKİYE’S CERAMIC TABLEWARE TRADE UNDER VUCA CONDITIONS: AN EXPLAINABLE MACHINE LEARNING APPROACH

Öz

This study examines the risk of severe export contraction in Türkiye’s ceramic tableware trade. The analysis uses country–product–year data covering 168 destination markets for HS 691110 and HS 691200 during 2003–2024. Severe contraction is defined as a decline of at least 30% in exports to a destination market in the following year. Logistic regression, Random Forest, HistGradientBoosting, and XGBoost models were compared through chronologically separated training, validation, and test periods. On the common test sample of 975 observations, the improved XGBoost model achieved a ROC-AUC of 0.6655, a PR-AUC of 0.4247, and a balanced accuracy of 0.6260. The improved model produced fewer false alarms than the initial model, although it missed some actual contraction cases. The explanation analysis showed that previous export patterns, volatility, unit-value movements, inflation, economic growth, and market concentration were influential in the predictions. The findings suggest that the model is more suitable as an early-warning and market-prioritization tool than as a precise forecasting system.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• VUCA
• ceramic tableware
• export contraction
• market risk
• XGBoost
• early warning

Kaynakça

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