EKONOMİK VE POLİTİK BELİRSİZLİKLERİN YUNANİSTAN’DAKİ GENÇ İŞSİZLİĞE ETKİLERİ: AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ

Öz

Bu çalışmada; ekonomik ve politik belirsizliklerin Yunanistan’daki genç işsizlik oranı üzerindeki etkileri, 1998:Q1-2019:Q2 dönemi için 10 farklı belirsizlik endeksi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonucunda; Yunanistan ekonomisinde, genç işsizlik oranı ile ekonomik ve siyasi belirsizlikler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilmiş ve bu bağlamda, ekonomi politikalarında görülen belirsizlikteki artışların Yunanistan’daki genç işsizliği en fazla artıran faktör olduğu belirlenmiştir. Uzun dönem analizinde, Yunanistan’daki ekonomik büyüme artışlarının genç işsizliğini önemli ölçüde azalttığı, dolayısıyla da bu ekonomide Okun Yasasının geçerli olduğu belirlenmiştir. Kısa dönem analizinde ise genç işsizliği, ekonomik büyümenin kısa dönemde de azalttığı, faiz oranlarının artırdığı, ancak, bu etkilerin uzun dönemdekilerden daha düşük olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara dayanarak; Yunanistan’da genç işsizlik oranının düşürülebilmesi için ekonomik ve siyasal belirsizliklerin azaltılmasının şart olduğu, bunun, ayrıca, güçlü ekonomik büyüme, düşük faiz oranları ve genişletici para ve maliye politikaları ile desteklenmesinin gerekli olduğu ifade edilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Genç İşsizlik
• Yunanistan Ekonomisi
• Ekonomi Politikalarındaki Belirsizlik
• Siyasi Belirsizlik

IMPACTS OF ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES ON YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT IN GREECE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS

Öz

In this study; the effects of economic and political uncertainties on the youth unemployment rate in Greece are analyzed using 10 different uncertainty indices for the period of 1998:Q1-2019:Q2. After the analysis; existence of a long-term relationship between the youth unemployment rate and economic and political uncertainties is determined in the Greek economy and in this context, the increase in the uncertainty seen in economic policies is found to be the factor most increasing the youth unemployment in Greece. In the long-term analysis, it is estimated that the increases in economic growth in Greece significantly reduces the youth unemployment and therefore the Okun’s Law is valid in this economy. In the short-term analysis, it is found that economic growth decreases youth unemployment in the short term and interest rates raises it, but these effects are lower than those in the long run.
Based on the findings obtained from the study; in order to reduce the youth unemployment rate in Greece, it can be stated that economic and political uncertainties have to be reduced and this should be supported by strong economic growth, low interest rates and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Young Unemployment, Greek Economy, Uncertainty in Economic Policies, Political Uncertainty

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