Araştırma Makalesi
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN RENEWABLE AND NONRENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS IN TURKEY: A SVAR (STRUCTURAL VAR) ANALYSIS
Öz
In this paper, the relationship between renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions was investigated by structural VAR (SVAR) analysis. Two different structural VAR (SVAR) model using annual time series covering the 1970-2014 period was established for Turkey. Firstly, all the variables were tested by the unit root tests and became stationary in their first differences. The Johansen-Juselius and Phillips-Ouliaris cointegration tests were used to analyze the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables. The results obtained from analyses indicated that there were cointegration relationship between the variables in two models. Two different structural VAR (SVAR) analyzes results revealed that shocks in renewable energy consumption reduced carbon dioxide emissions and per capita real GDP while shocks of non-renewable energy consumption increased both per capita real GDP and carbon dioxide emissions.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Renewable Energy Consumption Non-Renewable Energy Consumption Economic Growth Carbon Dioxide Emissions Cointegration Structural VAR
Kaynakça
- 1. Akay, E. Ç., Abdieva, R. ve Oskonbaeva, Z. (2015) “Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi, İktisadi Büyüme ve Karbondioksit Emisyonu Arasındaki Nedensel İlişki: Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika Ülkeleri Örneği”, International Conference On Eurasian Economies. 2. Apergis, N., Payne, J. E., Menyah, K. ve Rufael, Y. W. (2010) “On the causal dynamics between emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and economic growth”, Ecological Economics Journal, 69(11): 2255-2260. 3. Azgun, S. (2011) “A Structural VAR Analysis of Electrical Energy Consumption and Real Gross Domestic Product: Evidence from Turkey”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5): 161-169. 4. Bernanke, B. S. (1986) “Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation”, Carnegie-rochester conference series on public policy, Elsevier, 25(1): 49-99. 5. Büyükyılmaz, A. ve Mert, M. (2015) “CO2 Emisyonu, Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin MS-VAR Yaklaşımı İle Modellenmesi: Türkiye Örneği”, Zeitschrift für die Welt der Türken Journal of World of Turks, 7(3): 103-117. 6. Enders, W. (1995) “Applied Econometrics Time Series”, John Wiles and Sons, Canada. 7. Engle, R. F. ve Granger, W.J. (1987) “Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing”, Econometrica, 55: 251-276. 8. Farhani, S. (2015) “Renewable Energy Consumption, Economin Growth and CO2 emissions: Evidence from selected MENA countries”, IPAG Working Paper Series, 1(2): 24-41. 9. Gökmenoğlu, K. ve Taşpınar, N. (2016) “The relationship between Co2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth and FDI: the case of Turkey”, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25(5): 706–723. 10. Hatzigeorgiou, E., Polatidis, H. ve Haralambopoulos, D. (2011) “CO2 emissions, GDP and energy intensity: A multivariate cointegration and causality analysis for Greece, 1977–2007”, Applied Energy Journal, 88: 1377–1385. 11. Irandoust, M. (2016) “The renewable energy-growth nexus with carbon emissions and technological innovation: Evidence from the Nordic countries”, Ecological Indicators, 69: 118–125. 12. Jebli, M. B. ve Youssef, S. B. (2015) “The environmental Kuznets curve, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy,and trade in Tunisia”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47: 173–185. 13. Johansen, S. ve Juselies, K. (1990) “Maximum likelihood estimation and inferences on cointegration”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2): 169-210. 14. Kutlar, A. (2007) “Ekonometriye Giriş”, Ankara: Nobel Yayınları. 15. Kutlar, A. (2017) “E.Views ile Uygulamalı Çok Denklemli Zaman Serileri”, Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları. 16. Liu, X., Zhang, S. ve Bae, J. (2017) “The impact of renewable energy and agriculture on carbon dioxide emissions: Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve in four selected ASEAN countries”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 164: 1239-1247. 17. Maslyuk, S. ve Dharmaratna, D. (2013) “Renewable Electricity Generation, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: Evidence from Middle-Income Countries in Asia”, Estudios De Economia Aplicada, 31(1): 217-244. 18. Öztürk, İ. ve Acaravcı, A. (2010) “CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9): 3220-3225. 19. Phillips, P. C. ve Oualiaris S. (1988) “Testing for Cointegration Using Principal Component Methods”, Journal of Economics Dynamic and Control, 12(2): 205-230. 20. Saidi, K. ve Mbarek, M. B. (2016) “Nuclear energy, renewable energy, CO2 emissions, and economic growth for nine developed countries: Evidence from panel Granger causality tests”, Progress in Nuclear Energy, 88: 364-374. 21. Shahbaz, M., Zeshan, M. ve Tiwari, A. K. (2011) “Analysis of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, real GDP and CO2 emissions: A structural VAR approach in Romania”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 34066. 22. Shahbaz, M., Zeshan, M. ve Shabbir, M. S. (2011) “Renewable and Nonrenewable Energy Consumption, Real GDP and CO2 Emissions Nexus: A Structural VAR Approach in Pakistan”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 34859. 23. Silva, S., Soares, I. ve Pinho, C. (2012) “The Impact of Renewable Energy Sources on Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions - a SVAR approach”, European Research Studies, 15: 133-144. 24. Sims, C. (1986) “Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis”, Federal Reserve Bank Minneapolis, 10(1): 2-16. 25. Spetan, K. (2016) “Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: A Case of Jordan”, International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 5(6): 217-226. 26. Sugiawan, Y. ve Managi, S. (2016) “The environmental Kuznets curve in Indonesia: Exploring the potential of renewable energy”, Energy Policy, 98: 187-198. 27. Tuğcu, C. T., Öztürk, I. ve Aslan, A. (2012) “Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Relationship Revisited: Evidence from G7 Countries”, Energy Economics, 34(6): 1942-1950.
TÜRKİYE'DE YENİLENEBİLİR VE YENİLENEMEYEN ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ, EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE KARBONDİOKSİT SALINIMI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: BİR SVAR (YAPISAL VAR) ANALİZİ
Öz
Bu
çalışmada yenilenebilir ve yenilenemeyen enerji tüketimi, ekonomik büyüme ve
karbondioksit salınımı arasındaki ilişki yapısal VAR (SVAR) analizi ile
araştırılmıştır. Türkiye için 1970-2014 dönemlerini kapsayan çalışmada yıllık
zaman serileri kullanılarak iki farklı yapısal VAR (SVAR) modeli kurulmuştur. Öncelikle
tüm değişkenler birim kök testleriyle sınanmış ve birinci farklarında durağan
hale gelmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını
analiz edebilmek için Johansen-Juselius ve Phillips-Ouliaris eşbütünleşme
testleri kullanılmıştır. Analizlerden elde edilen sonuçlar her iki modelde değişkenler
arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin olduğunu göstermiştir. İki farklı yapısal VAR
(SVAR) analizi sonuçları yenilenebilir enerji tüketimindeki şokların
karbondioksit salınımını ve kişi başına reel GSYİH’yı azalttığını, buna
karşılık yenilenemeyen enerji tüketimindeki şokların hem kişi başına GSYİH’yı
hem de karbondioksit salınımını yükselttiğini ortaya koymuştur.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi Yenilenemeyen Enerji Tüketimi Ekonomik Büyüme Karbondioksit Salınımı Yapısal VAR (SVAR)
Kaynakça
- 1. Akay, E. Ç., Abdieva, R. ve Oskonbaeva, Z. (2015) “Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi, İktisadi Büyüme ve Karbondioksit Emisyonu Arasındaki Nedensel İlişki: Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika Ülkeleri Örneği”, International Conference On Eurasian Economies. 2. Apergis, N., Payne, J. E., Menyah, K. ve Rufael, Y. W. (2010) “On the causal dynamics between emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and economic growth”, Ecological Economics Journal, 69(11): 2255-2260. 3. Azgun, S. (2011) “A Structural VAR Analysis of Electrical Energy Consumption and Real Gross Domestic Product: Evidence from Turkey”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 3(5): 161-169. 4. Bernanke, B. S. (1986) “Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation”, Carnegie-rochester conference series on public policy, Elsevier, 25(1): 49-99. 5. Büyükyılmaz, A. ve Mert, M. (2015) “CO2 Emisyonu, Yenilenebilir Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin MS-VAR Yaklaşımı İle Modellenmesi: Türkiye Örneği”, Zeitschrift für die Welt der Türken Journal of World of Turks, 7(3): 103-117. 6. Enders, W. (1995) “Applied Econometrics Time Series”, John Wiles and Sons, Canada. 7. Engle, R. F. ve Granger, W.J. (1987) “Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing”, Econometrica, 55: 251-276. 8. Farhani, S. (2015) “Renewable Energy Consumption, Economin Growth and CO2 emissions: Evidence from selected MENA countries”, IPAG Working Paper Series, 1(2): 24-41. 9. Gökmenoğlu, K. ve Taşpınar, N. (2016) “The relationship between Co2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth and FDI: the case of Turkey”, The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 25(5): 706–723. 10. Hatzigeorgiou, E., Polatidis, H. ve Haralambopoulos, D. (2011) “CO2 emissions, GDP and energy intensity: A multivariate cointegration and causality analysis for Greece, 1977–2007”, Applied Energy Journal, 88: 1377–1385. 11. Irandoust, M. (2016) “The renewable energy-growth nexus with carbon emissions and technological innovation: Evidence from the Nordic countries”, Ecological Indicators, 69: 118–125. 12. Jebli, M. B. ve Youssef, S. B. (2015) “The environmental Kuznets curve, economic growth, renewable and non-renewable energy,and trade in Tunisia”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47: 173–185. 13. Johansen, S. ve Juselies, K. (1990) “Maximum likelihood estimation and inferences on cointegration”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2): 169-210. 14. Kutlar, A. (2007) “Ekonometriye Giriş”, Ankara: Nobel Yayınları. 15. Kutlar, A. (2017) “E.Views ile Uygulamalı Çok Denklemli Zaman Serileri”, Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları. 16. Liu, X., Zhang, S. ve Bae, J. (2017) “The impact of renewable energy and agriculture on carbon dioxide emissions: Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve in four selected ASEAN countries”, Journal of Cleaner Production, 164: 1239-1247. 17. Maslyuk, S. ve Dharmaratna, D. (2013) “Renewable Electricity Generation, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: Evidence from Middle-Income Countries in Asia”, Estudios De Economia Aplicada, 31(1): 217-244. 18. Öztürk, İ. ve Acaravcı, A. (2010) “CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(9): 3220-3225. 19. Phillips, P. C. ve Oualiaris S. (1988) “Testing for Cointegration Using Principal Component Methods”, Journal of Economics Dynamic and Control, 12(2): 205-230. 20. Saidi, K. ve Mbarek, M. B. (2016) “Nuclear energy, renewable energy, CO2 emissions, and economic growth for nine developed countries: Evidence from panel Granger causality tests”, Progress in Nuclear Energy, 88: 364-374. 21. Shahbaz, M., Zeshan, M. ve Tiwari, A. K. (2011) “Analysis of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, real GDP and CO2 emissions: A structural VAR approach in Romania”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 34066. 22. Shahbaz, M., Zeshan, M. ve Shabbir, M. S. (2011) “Renewable and Nonrenewable Energy Consumption, Real GDP and CO2 Emissions Nexus: A Structural VAR Approach in Pakistan”, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 34859. 23. Silva, S., Soares, I. ve Pinho, C. (2012) “The Impact of Renewable Energy Sources on Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions - a SVAR approach”, European Research Studies, 15: 133-144. 24. Sims, C. (1986) “Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis”, Federal Reserve Bank Minneapolis, 10(1): 2-16. 25. Spetan, K. (2016) “Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth: A Case of Jordan”, International Journal of Business and Economics Research, 5(6): 217-226. 26. Sugiawan, Y. ve Managi, S. (2016) “The environmental Kuznets curve in Indonesia: Exploring the potential of renewable energy”, Energy Policy, 98: 187-198. 27. Tuğcu, C. T., Öztürk, I. ve Aslan, A. (2012) “Renewable and Non-Renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Relationship Revisited: Evidence from G7 Countries”, Energy Economics, 34(6): 1942-1950.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 31 Mart 2018 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2018 Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1 |