Panel Veri Yöntemi ile Seçilmiş Ülke Ekonomilerinde Fosil Yakıt Talebinin İncelenmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada fosil yakıt talebinin belirleyicileri küreselleşme sürecinin derinleştiği güncel dönem verileri ile araştırılmaktadır. Panel veri yöntemlerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada yatay kesit birimleri olarak Arjantin, Bangladeş, Bulgaristan, Şili, Çin, Macaristan, Hindistan, Meksika, Pakistan, Peru, Filipinler, Polonya, Romanya, Tayland, Türkiye ve Ukrayna ekonomileri seçilmiştir. Adı geçen 16 ülkede 1990 yılında toplam enerji kaynakları içerisinde fosil yakıtların payı %75.47 iken 2018 yılında %84.23 oranında gerçekleşmiştir. İlgili ülke ekonomilerinde 1990 yılına göre 2018 yılında toplam enerji ithalatı %388.96 artış göstermiş ve bu artışın önemli bölümü fosil yakıt tüketiminden kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu durum gerek cari açık gerekse çevresel kalite açısından önemli sorunları meydana getirebilmektedir. Bu çalışmada 1990-2018 örneklem dönemine ait fosil yakıt talebi ile ekonomik büyüme, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, reel enerji fiyatları, karbondioksit emisyonu, kentleşme ve enerji kayıpları arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişki ampirik olarak incelenmektedir. Panel veri analizi yöntemlerinden Havuzlanmış Ortalama Grup (PMG), Ortalama Grup (MG) ve Dinamik Sabit Etkiler (DFE) tahmincilerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada model tercihi için Hausman testi yapılmaktadır. Ampirik bulgular ekonomik büyüme, reel enerji fiyatları, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve kentleşmenin fosil yakıt talebini düşürdüğünü; karbondioksit emisyonu ve enerji kayıplarının ise fosil yakıt talebini artırıcı rol oynadığını göstermiştir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Fosil Yakıt Kullanımı, Ekonomik Büyüme, Enerji Kayıpları, Enerji İthalatçısı Ülkeler. JEL Sınıflandırması: O13, F43.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fosil Yakıt Kullanımı
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Enerji Kayıpları
• Enerji İthalatçısı Ülkeler

Investigation of Fossil Fuel Demand in Selected Country Economies with Panel Data Method

Öz

In this study, the determinants of fossil fuel demand are investigated with the current period data in which the globalization process deepens. In the study using panel data methods, Argentina, Bangladesh, Bulgaria, Chile, China, Hungary, India, Mexico, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Romania, Thailand, Turkey and Ukraine economies were selected as cross-sectional units. While the share of fossil fuels in the total energy resources in the aforementioned 16 countries was 75.47% in 1990, it was 84.23% in 2018. Compared to 1990, total energy imports increased by 388.96% in the economies of the relevant countries in 2018, and a significant part of this increase is due to fossil fuel consumption. This situation can cause significant problems in terms of both current account deficit and environmental quality. In this study, the short- and long-term relationship between fossil fuel demand and economic growth, foreign direct investments, real energy prices, carbon dioxide emissions, urbanization and energy losses for the sample period of 1990-2018 is empirically examined. In the study where Pooled Mean Group (PMG), Mean Group (MG) and Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE) estimators from panel data analysis methods are used, Hausman test is used for model choice. Empirical findings indicate that economic growth, real energy prices, foreign direct investment and urbanization reduce fossil fuel demand; On the other hand, it has been shown that carbon dioxide emissions and energy losses play an increasing role in fossil fuel demand. Key Words: Fossil Fuel Use, Economic Growth, Energy Losses, Energy Importing Countries. JEL Classification: O13, F43, C23

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fossil Fuel Use
• Economic Growth
• Energy Losses
• Energy Importing Countries

Kaynakça

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