ABD’de Bütçe Açık ve Fazlaları: Tarihsel Bir İnceleme

Öz

This article analyzes U.S. federal budget surpluses and deficits to better understand the USA current fiscal position and problems in an historical perspective. A long-run perspective on U.S. federal budget deficits is also helpful in understanding the deficit/debt problem. The history of US federal budget management divided into three epochs in this study. The study shows that budget deficit and debt problem especially began since the late 1970’s-third epoch- when the federal government has operated chronic and huge deficits in which usually without economic rationale.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• U.S. Federal Budget, Budget Deficits, Budget Surpluses, Budget Policy, National Debt

ABD’de Bütçe Açık ve Fazlaları: Tarihsel Bir İnceleme

Öz

Bu makale, ABD’nin mevcut mali pozisyonunu ve problemlerini tarihsel bir perspektif içinde daha iyi anlamak için ABD federal bütçe açık ve fazlalarını analiz etmektedir. ABD bütçe açıkları üzerinde uzun vadeli bir perspektif bütçe açığı /borç problemini de anlamamıza yardımcı olacaktır. ABD bütçe yönetim tarihi bu çalışmada üç ayrı döneme ayrılmıştır. Çalışma bütçe açık ve borç sorununun özellikle, federal hükümetin kronik ve büyük boyutta genellikle ekonomik bir rasyonelden yoksun bütçe açıkları ile çalıştığı üçüncü dönemde- 1970’lerin sonunda başladığını göstermiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• ABD Federal Bütçesi , Bütçe Açıkları, Bütçe Fazlaları, Bütçe Politikası, Ulusal Borç

Kaynakça

1. ALESINA, Alberto (2000) “The Political Economy of The Budget Surplus in the US”, NBER Working Paper Series 7496, January 2000.
2. BARTH, James R. & Tong Lİ (2013) “US Debt and Deficits: Time To Reverse The Trend”, Sharper Axes Lower Taxes: Big Steps to A Smaller State, Ed. Philip Booth, Hobart Paperback, 2012. . Çevrim İçi elektronikadres:http://business.auburn.edu/~barthjr/publications/2012/Check/Publish%20 Version/US%20Debt%20and%20Deficits_Time%20to%20Reverse%20the%20Trend.pdf 10 Ağustos 2013.
3. BERNANKE, Ben S. (2012) “The Economic Outlook and the Federal Budget Situation”, February 2, 20
4. CBO (2011) “Confronting The Nations Fiscal Policy Challenges”, Statement of Douglas W. Elmendorf, Sebtember 13, 2011.
5. CBO (2012) “Changes in CBO’s Baseline Projections Since January 2001” June 7, 2012.
6. CHINN, Menzie D. & Jeffry A. FRIEDEN (2012) Lost Decades – The Making of America’s Debt Crisis and The Long Recovery,W.W. Norton & Company,NewYork, 2012.
7. FRANKEL, Jeffrey (2008) “Snake-Oil Tax Cuts”, Sept. 8, 2008. Çevrim İçi elektronik adres: http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/jfrankel/TaxCutSnakeOilSept8-08.pdf 10 Ağustos 2013
8. INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS AND PEACE (2011) Economic Consequences of War On The U.S. Economy, 2011.

9. JOHNSON,Simon & James KWAK (2013) White House Burning – Our National Debt and Why It Matters To You, Vintage Books,New York USA, February 2013.
10. MORGAN, Iwan (2009) The Age of Deficits: Presidents and Unbalanced Budgets from Jimmy Carter to George W. Bush, Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 2009.
11. OMB (OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET) (2013) The Fiscal Year 2014 Historical Tables Budget Of The US Government,Washington D.C., 2013.
12. THORNTON, Daniel L. (2012) “The U.S. Deficit/Debt Problem: A Longer-Run Perspective”, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis REVIEW, November/December 2012, 441-456.
13. WRIGHT, Robert E. (2011) “Checks & Balances: Three Epochs of Federal Budget Management”, Financial History, Fall 2011. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_public_debt#cite_note-19
14. US DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY (2013) Bureau of Public Debt, “Post War Turbulance”, http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/history/postwar.htm 10 Ağustos 2013
15. E K L E R Tablo 1: Kamu Gelirleri, Kamu Harcamaları ve Bütçe Fazla ve Açıkları (–): 1789–2018 (Milyon ABD Doları) Toplam Bütçe İçi Bütçe Dışı    Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) 1789–1849 1,160 1,090 70 1,160 1,090 70 1850–1900 14,462 15,453 -991 14,462 15,453 -991 1901 588 525 63 588 525 63 1902 562 485 77 562 485 77 1903 562 517 45 562 517 45 1904 541 584 -43 541 584 -43 1905 544 567 -23 544 567 -23 1906 595 570 25 595 570 25 1907 666 579 87 666 579 87 1908 602 659 -57 602 659 -57 1909 604 694 -89 604 694 -89 1910 676 694 -18 676 694 -18 1911 702 691 11 702 691 11 - 1912 693 690 3 693 690 3 - - 1913 714 715 -* 714 715 -* - 1914 725 726 -* 725 726 -* - 1915 683 746 -63 683 746 -63 1916 761 713 48 761 713 48 1917 1,101 1,954 -853 1,101 1,954 -853 1918 3,645 12,677 -9,032 3,645 12,677 -9,032 1919 5,130 18,493 -13,363 5,130 18,493 -13,363 1920 6,649 6,358 291 6,649 6,358 291 1921 5,571 5,062 509 5,571 5,062 509 1922 4,026 3,289 736 4,026 3,289 736 1923 3,853 3,140 713 3,853 3,140 713 1924 3,871 2,908 963 3,871 2,908 963 Toplam Bütçe İçi Bütçe Dışı
16.    Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) 1925 3,641 2,924 717 3,641 2,924 717 1926 3,795 2,930 865 3,795 2,930 865 1927 4,013 2,857 1,155 4,013 2,857 1,155 1928 3,900 2,961 939 3,900 2,961 939 1929 3,862 3,127 734 3,862 3,127 734 1930 4,058 3,320 738 4,058 3,320 738 1931 3,116 3,577 -462 3,116 3,577 -462 1932 1,924 4,659 -2,735 1,924 4,659 -2,735 1933 1,997 4,598 -2,602 1,997 4,598 -2,602 1934 2,955 6,541 -3,586 2,955 6,541 -3,586 1935 3,609 6,412 -2,803 3,609 6,412 -2,803 1936 3,923 8,228 -4,304 3,923 8,228 -4,304 1937 5,387 7,580 -2,193 5,122 7,582 -2,46 265 -2 267 1938 6,751 6,840 -89 6,364 6,850 -486 387 -10 397 1939 6,295 9,141 -2,846 5,792 9,154 -3,362 503 -13 516 1940 6,548 9,468 -2,92 5,998 9,482 -3,484 550 -14 564 1941 8,712 13,653 -4,941 8,024 13,618 -5,594 688 35 653 1942 14,634 35,137 -20,503 13,738 35,071 -21,333 896 66 830 1943 24,001 78,555 -54,554 22,871 78,466 -55,595 1,13 89 1,041 1944 43,747 91,304 -47,557 42,455 91,190 -48,735 1,292 114 1,178 1945 45,159 92,712 -47,553 43,849 92,569 -48,72 1,31 143 1,167 1946 39,296 55,232 -15,936 38,057 55,022 -16,964 1,238 210 1,028 1947 38,514 34,496 4,018 37,055 34,193 2,861 1,459 303 1,157 1948 41,560 29,764 11,796 39,944 29,396 10,548 1,616 368 1,248 1949 39,415 38,835 580 37,724 38,408 -684 1,69 427 1,263
17.                               Toplam Bütçe İçi Bütçe Dışı    Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) 1950 39,443 42,562 -3,119 37,336 42,038 -4,702 2,106 524 1,583 1951 51,616 45,514 6,102 48,496 44,237 4,259 3,12 1,277 1,843 1952 66,167 67,686 -1,519 62,573 65,956 -3,383 3,594 1,73 1,864 1953 69,608 76,101 -6,493 65,511 73,771 -8,259 4,097 2,33 1,766 1954 69,701 70,855 -1,154 65,112 67,943 -2,831 4,589 2,912 1,677                        1955 65,451 68,444 -2,993 60,37 64,461 -4,091 5,081 3,983 1,098 1956 74,587 70,64 3,947 68,162 65,668 2,494 6,425 4,972 1,452 1957 79,99 76,578 3,412 73,201 70,562 2,639 6,789 6,016 773 1958 79,636 82,405 -2,769 71,587 74,902 -3,315 8,049 7,503 546 1959 79,249 92,098 -12,849 70,953 83,102 -12,149 8,296 8,996 -700 1960 92,492 92,191 301 81,851 81,341 510 10,641 10,85 -209 1961 94,388 97,723 -3,335 82,279 86,046 -3,766 12,109 11,677 431 1962 99,676 106,821 -7,146 87,405 93,286 -5,881 12,271 13,535 -1,265 1963 106,56 111,316 -4,756 92,385 96,352 -3,966 14,175 14,964 -789 1964 112,613 118,528 -5,915 96,248 102,794 -6,546 16,366 15,734 632 1965 116,817 118,228 -1,411 100,094 101,699 -1,605 16,723 16,529 194 1966 130,835 134,532 -3,698 111,749 114,817 -3,068 19,085 19,715 -630 1967 148,822 157,464 -8,643 124,42 137,04 -12,62 24,401 20,424 3,978 1968 152,973 178,134 -25,161 128,056 155,798 -27,742 24,917 22,336 2,581 1969 186,882 183,64 3,242 157,928 158,436 -507 28,953 25,204 3,749 1970 192,807 195,649 -2,842 159,348 168,042 -8,694 33,459 27,607 5,852 1971 187,139 210,172 -23,033 151,294 177,346 -26,052 35,845 32,826 3,019 1972 207,309 230,681 -23,373 167,402 193,47 -26,068 39,907 37,212 2,695 1973 230,799 245,707 -14,908 184,715 199,961 -15,246 46,084 45,746 338 1974 263,224 269,359 -6,135 209,299 216,496 -7,198 53,925 52,862 1,063                              
18. Tablo-1 (Devamı) : Kamu Gelirleri, Kamu Harcamaları ve Bütçe Fazla ve Açıkları (–): 1789–2018 (Milyon ABD Doları) Toplam Bütçe İçi Bütçe Dışı    Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) 1975 279,09 332,332 -53,242 216,633 270,78 -54,148 62,458 61,552 906 1976 298,06 371,792 -73,732 231,671 301,098 -69,427 66,389 70,695 -4,306 TQ 81,232 95,975 -14,744 63,216 77,281 -14,065 18,016 18,695 -679 1977 355,559 409,218 -53,659 278,741 328,675 -49,933 76,817 80,543 -3,726 1978 399,561 458,746 -59,185 314,169 369,585 -55,416 85,391 89,161 -3,77 1979 463,302 504,028 -40,726 365,309 404,941 -39,633 97,994 99,087 -1,093                       1980 517,112 590,941 -73,83 403,903 477,044 -73,141 113,209 113,898 -689 1981 599,272 678,241 -78,968 469,097 542,956 -73,859 130,176 135,285 -5,109 1982 617,766 745,743 -127,977 474,299 594,892 -120,593 143,467 150,851 -7,384 1983 600,562 808,364 -207,802 453,242 660,934 -207,692 147,32 147,43 -110 1984 666,438 851,805 -185,367 500,363 685,632 -185,269 166,075 166,174 -98                       1985 734,037 946,344 -212,308 547,866 769,396 -221,529 186,171 176,949 9,222 1986 769,155 990,382 -221,227 568,927 806,842 -237,915 200,228 183,54 16,688 1987 854,288 1,004,017 -149,73 640,886 809,243 -168,357 213,402 194,775 18,627 1988 909,238 1,064,416 -155,178 667,747 860,012 -192,265 241,491 204,404 37,087 1989 991,105 1,143,744 -152,639 727,439 932,832 -205,393 263,666 210,911 52,754 1990 1,031,958 1,252,994 -221,036 750,302 1,027,928 -277,626 281,656 225,065 56,59 1991 1,054,988 1,324,226 -269,238 761,103 1,082,539 -321,435 293,885 241,687 52,198 1992 1,091,208 1,381,529 -290,321 788,783 1,129,191 -340,408 302,426 252,339 50,087 1993 1,154,335 1,409,386 -255,051 842,401 1,142,799 -300,398 311,934 266,587 45,347 1994 1,258,566 1,461,753 -203,186 923,541 1,182,380 -258,84 335,026 279,372 55,654 1995 1,351,790 1,515,742 -163,952 1,000,711 1,227,078 -226,367 351,079 288,664 62,415 1996 1,453,053 1,560,484 -107,431 1,085,561 1,259,580 -174,019 367,492 300,904 66,588 1997 1,579,232 1,601,116 -21,884 1,187,242 1,290,490 -103,248 391,99 310,626 81,364 1998 1,721,728 1,652,458 69,27 1,305,929 1,335,854 -29,925 415,799 316,604 99,195 1999 1,827,452 1,701,842 125,61 1,382,984 1,381,064 1,92 444,468 320,778 123,69
19. Toplam Bütçe İçi Bütçe Dışı Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) Gelirler Giderler Fazla veya Açık (–) 2000 2,025,191 1,788,950 236,241 1,544,607 1,458,185 86,422 480,584 330,765 149,819 2001 1,991,082 1,862,846 128,236 1,483,563 1,516,008 -32,445 507,519 346,838 160,681 2002 1,853,136 2,010,894 -157,758 1,337,815 1,655,232 -317,417 515,321 355,662 159,659 2003 1,782,314 2,159,899 -377,585 1,258,472 1,796,890 -538,418 523,842 363,009 160,833 2004 1,880,114 2,292,841 -412,727 1,345,369 1,913,330 -567,961 534,745 379,511 155,234 2005 2,153,611 2,471,957 -318,346 1,576,135 2,069,746 -493,611 577,476 402,211 175,265 2006 2,406,869 2,655,050 -248,181 1,798,487 2,232,981 -434,494 608,382 422,069 186,313 2007 2,567,985 2,728,686 -160,701 1,932,896 2,275,049 -342,153 635,089 453,637 181,452 2008 2,523,991 2,982,544 -458,553 1,865,945 2,507,793 -641,848 658,046 474,751 183,295 2009 2,104,989 3,517,677 -1,412,688 1,450,980 3,000,661 -1,549,681 654,009 517,016 136,993 2010 2,162,706 3,457,079 -1,294,373 1,531,019 2,902,397 -1,371,378 631,687 554,682 77,005 2011 2,303,466 3,603,059 -1,299,593 1,737,678 3,104,453 -1,366,775 565,788 498,606 67,182 2012 2,450,164 3,537,127 -1,086,963 1,880,663 3,029,539 -1,148,876 569,501 507,588 61,913 2013
20. Tahmin 2,712,045 3,684,947 -972,902 2,038,558 3,044,916 -1,006,358 673,487 640,031 33,456 2014
21. Tahmin 3,033,618 3,777,807 -744,189 2,294,478 3,062,692 -768,214 739,14 715,115 24,025 2015
22. Tahmin 3,331,685 3,908,157 -576,472 2,553,429 3,137,025 -583,596 778,256 771,132 7,124 2016
23. Tahmin 3,561,451 4,089,836 -528,385 2,735,891 3,260,397 -524,506 825,56 829,439 -3,879 2017
24. Tahmin 3,760,542 4,247,448 -486,906 2,891,827 3,370,159 -478,332 868,715 877,289 -8,574 2018
25. Tahmin 3,973,974 4,449,240 -475,266 3,056,516 3,516,155 -459,639 917,458 933,085 -15,627 * $500 Bin veya daha az Kaynak : OMB, The Fiscal Year 2014 Historical Tables Budget Of The US Government,Washington D.C., 2013, s.23-26