The Relationship Between Stock Prices and the Real Exchange Rate Index in BRICS Countries: Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Analysis

Öz

This study investigates the causality relationship between the real exchange rate index and stock prices in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) countries over the period from March 2003 to June 2018. The relationship between the variables was made with symmetrical and asymmetrical causality tests within the framework of traditional approach and portfolio balance approach. Accordingly, Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006) test was used for symmetric analysis and Hatemi-J (2012) causality test was used for asymmetric analysis. According to the results of the analysis, the causality relationship between the mentioned variables is different in BRICS countries. The findings do not provide definitive evidence in favor of the traditional approach or portfolio balance approach. Also, it can be stated that there are noisy transactions in these two markets
Key Words: BRICS, Stock Prices, Real Effective Exchange Rate, Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Analysis
JEL Classification: C32, F31, G10, G15

Anahtar Kelimeler

• BRICS
• Stock Prices
• Real Exchange Rate Index
• Symmetric and Asymmetric Causality Analysis

BRICS Ülkelerinde Hisse Senedi Fiyatları ile Reel Döviz Kuru Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi

Öz

Bu çalışma, Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Çin ve Güney Afrika (BRICS) ülkelerinde reel döviz kuru endeksi ile hisse senedi fiyatları arasındaki nedenselliği Mart 2003- Haziran 2018 dönemi boyunca araştırmaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişki geleneksel yaklaşım ve portföy dengesi yaklaşımı çerçevesinde simetrik ve asimetrik nedensellik testleri ile yapılmıştır. Buna göre, simetrik analiz için Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006) testi ve asimetrik analiz için ise Hatemi-J (2012) nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre BRICS ülkelerinde söz konusu değişkenker arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi farklıdır. Elde edilen bulgular, geleneksel yaklaşım ya da portföy dengesi yaklaşımı lehine kesin bir kanıt sağlamamaktadır. Ayrıca söz konusu iki piyasada gürültücü işlemlerin olduğu ifade edilebilir.
Anahtar Kelimeler: BRICS, Hisse Senedi Fiyatları, Reel Efektif Döviz Kuru, Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi
JEL Sınıflandırması: C32, F31, G10, G15

Anahtar Kelimeler

• BRICS
• Hisse Senedi Fiyatları
• Reel Döviz Kuru Endeksi
• Simetrik ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Analizi

Kaynakça

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