Jeopolitik Risklerin Firma Yatırımları Üzerindeki Etkisi: Borsa İstanbul Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma

Öz

Şirketlerin yatırım kararlarını etkileyen faktörler sıklıkla araştırılmalara konu olmuştur. Araştırmacılar hem ülkeye özgü hem de firmaya özgü faktörlerin firmaların yatırım kararları üzerinde etkili olduğunu saptamışlardır. Firma özgü faktörler arasında karlılık, büyüklük, işletme riski, likidite ve büyüme olasılığı bulunmaktadır. Ülkeye özgü faktörler ise ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, siyasi ve ekonomik belirsizlik, vergilendirme ve ülkedeki yasal düzenlemeler olarak belirtilmiştir. Literatürde politik ve ekonomik belirsizliklere ilaveten jeopolitik risklerin de firmaların yatırım kararlarını önemli ölçüde etkilediğine ilişkin çalışmalar mevcuttur. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de yer alan Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören 309 adet finansal olmayan şirketin yatırım kararları üzerinde jeopolitik risklerin (GPR) etkisini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmanın verileri 2010 ile 2019 yılları arasındaki on yıllık süreç için toplanarak dengesiz panel veri yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın bulgularına göre, Türkiye'nin GPR Endeksi'ndeki bir artış, firma yatırımlarında beklentilere uygun şekilde azalmaya neden olmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Jeopolitik riskler
• yatırımlar
• panel veri
• belirsizlik

The Effects of Geopolitical Risks on Firm Investments: An Empirical Study on the Istanbul Stock Exchange

Öz

Extensive research has been conducted on the factors that influence a company's investment decisions. Both country-specific and firm-specific factors, impacting firms' investment choices, have been identified by researchers. Firm-specific factors encompass profitability, size, operating risk, liquidity, and growth potential. On the other hand, country-specific factors are delineated as economic growth, inflation, political and economic uncertainty, taxation, and legal regulations within the country. Literature studies suggest that, in addition to political and economic uncertainties, geopolitical risks also exert a significant influence on firms' investment decisions. The research below focuses on how geopolitical risks (GPR) affect the investing choices of 309 non-financial businesses included in the Istanbul Stock Exchange of Turkey. Data spanning ten years, from 2010 to 2019, was collected, and the unbalanced panel data method was employed for analysis. In light of the study's conclusions, an increase in Turkey's GPR Index corresponded to a decline in firm investments, aligning with expectations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Geopolitical risks
• investments
• uncertainty
• panel data

Kaynakça

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