TÜRKİYE’DEKİ BÜYÜKŞEHİR BELEDİYELERİNDE MALİ STRESİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: ÇOK BOYUTLU BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’deki büyükşehir belediyelerinde mali stresin belirleyicilerini, bütçe dengesinin toplam gelire oranına dayanan bir bütçe stresi göstergesi kullanarak incelemektedir. 2009–2021 yılları arasındaki 19 büyükşehir belediyesine ait panel verilerle yürütülen analizde, ekonomik, mali, demografik ve siyasi değişkenlerin bütçe performansı üzerindeki etkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular; işsizlik oranı, net göç oranı ve belediye başkanının yeniden seçilme durumu gibi değişkenlerin daha düşük bütçe stresiyle ilişkili olduğunu; buna karşın nüfus artışı, iktidar partisiyle siyasi uyum ve ihracat/ithalat oranının mali baskıyı artırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Beklentilere rağmen, enflasyon oranı, kişi başına GSYH ve merkezi hükümet harcamaları anlamlı bir etki göstermemiştir. Çok boyutlu bir yaklaşım benimseyen çalışma, Türkiye'deki yerel yönetimlerin yapısal ve siyasi gerçekliklerini yansıtan ampirik bir model sunarak literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Bulgular, yerel düzeyde mali sürdürülebilirliği güçlendirmeyi amaçlayan politika yapıcılar için önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Mali Stres
• Bütçe Stresi
• Yerel Yönetim Maliyesi
• Mali Sürdürülebilirlik
• Driscoll-Kraay Tahmin Yöntemi.

DETERMINANTS OF FISCAL STRESS IN TÜRKİYE’S METROPOLITAN MUNICIPALITIES: A MULTIDIMENSIONAL PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of fiscal stress in Türkiye’s metropolitan municipalities by employing a budget stress indicator based on the ratio of budget balance to total revenues. This study uses annual panel data spanning from 2009 to 2021 for 19 metropolitan municipalities, incorporating a wide range of economic, fiscal, demographic, and political variables to assess their impact on municipal budgetary performance. The analysis reveals that unemployment rate, net migration rate, and political incumbency are significantly associated with lower budget stress, while population growth, ruling party alignment, and export-to-import ratios increase fiscal pressure. Contrary to expectations, inflation rate, GDP per capita, and central government expenditures within municipalities do not exhibit significant effects. The findings emphasize the complexity of fiscal stress in highly centralized governance systems, where local financial outcomes are influenced by both local dynamics and national-level constraints. By adopting a multidimensional approach, the study contributes to the literature by offering an empirical model that reflects the structural and political realities of Türkiye’s local governments. The results offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to strengthen fiscal sustainability.

Keywords

• Fiscal Stress
• Budget Stress
• Local Government Finance
• Fiscal Sustainability
• Driscoll-Kraay Estimation

References

1. Aarsaether, N. (1990). Organizational and Spatial Determinants of Fiscal Stress: An analysis of Norwegian Municipalities. Public Budgeting & Finance, 10(1), 55-66. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5850.00850
2. ACIR (Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations). (1973). City Financial Emergencies: The Intergovernmental Dimension. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
3. Afonso, A., Baxa, J., & Slavík, M. (2018). Fiscal developments and financial stress: a threshold VAR analysis. Empirical Economics, 54, 395–423. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1210-5
4. Alm, J., Mckee, M., & Skidmore, M. (1993). Fiscal Pressure, Tax Competition, and the Introduction of State Lotteries. National Tax Journal, 46(4), 463-476. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/NTJ41789039
5. Arnett, S. B. (2011). Fiscal Stress in the U.S. States: An Analysis of Measures and Responses. Georgia Institute of Technology and Georgia State University.
6. Badu, Y. A., & Li, S. Y. (1994). Fiscal Stress in Local Government: A Case Study of the Tri-Cities in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The Review of Black Political Economy, 22(3), 5-18. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02689969
7. Bahl, R. (1984). Financing State and Local Government in the 1980s. New York: Oxford University Press.
8. Baldacci, E., Petrova, I., Belhocine, N., Dobrescu, G., & Mazraani, S. (2011). Assessing Fiscal Stress. IMF Working Paper 11/100: International Monetary Fund.

9. Benson, E., Marks, B., & Raman, K. (1988). Tax Effort as an Indicator of Fiscal Stress. Public Finance Quarterly, 16(2), 203-218. doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/109114218801600204
10. Berne, R., & Schramm, R. (1986). The Financial Analysis of Governments. Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall.
11. Berti, K., Salto, M., & Lequien, M. (2012). An Early-detection Index of Fiscal Stress for EU Countries. Brussels: European Commission Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs.
12. Bird, R. M., & Slack, E. (2015). Is Your City Healthy?: Measuring Urban Fiscal Health. Toronto: University of Toronto Press.
13. Bluestone, B., & Harrison, B. (1982). The deindustrialization of America. New York: Basic Book.
14. Boukari, M., & Veiga, F. J. (2018). Disentangling Political and Institutional Determinants of Budget Forecast Errors: A Comparative Approach. Journal of Comparative Economics, 46(4), 1030-1045. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2018.03.002
15. Boyne, G. (1988). The Extent and Impact of Local Fiscal Stress. Public Policy and Administration, 3(2), 15-26. doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/095207678800300110
16. Breckenfield, G. (1977). Refilling the Metropolitan Doughnut. In D. Perry, & A. Watkins (Eds.), The Rise of the Sunbelt Cities (pp. 231-258). California: Sage Publications.
17. Brien, S. T., Eger III, R. J., & Matkin, D. S. (2021). The Timing of Managerial Responses to Fiscal Stress. Public Administration Review, 81(3), 414–427. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.13359
18. Brown, K. (1993). The 10-Point Test of Financial Condition: Toward an Easy-to-Use Assessment Tool for Smaller Cities. Government Finance Review, 9(6), 21-26.
19. Conant, J. (2003). Wisconsin's Budget Deficit: Size, Causes, Remedies, and Consequences. Public Budgeting and Finance, 23(2), 5-25. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5850.2302002
20. Copeland, R., & Ingram, R. (1983). Municipal Financial Reporting and Disclosure Quality. Reading, Massachusetts: Addison-Wesley.
21. Dougherty, M. J., Klase, K. A., & Song, S. G. (2000). The relationships between public finance issues, financial management issues, and conditions of fiscal stress in small and rural governments: the case of west Virginia. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 12(4), 545-565. doi:https://doi.org/10.1108/JPBAFM-12-04-2000-B002
22. Douglas, J., & Gaddie, R. K. (2002). State Rainy Day Funds and Fiscal Crises: Rainy Day Funds and the 1990–1991 Recession Revisited. Public Budgeting and Finance, 22(1), 19-30. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5850.00063
23. Galiński, P. (2023). Importance of the Size of Local Government in Avoiding the Fiscal Distress – Empirical Evidence on Communes in Poland. Annales Oeconomia, 56(5), 101-113. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.17951/h.2022.56.5.101-113
24. Glasberg, D. S. (1988). The Political Economic Power of Finance Capital and Urban Fiscal Crisis: Cleveland’S Default, 1978. Journal of Urban Affairs, 10(3), 219-239. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9906.1988.tb00540.x
25. Gold, S. (1992). The Federal Role in State Fiscal Stress. Publius: The Journal of Federalism, 22(3), 33-47. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.pubjof.a038028
26. Gold, S. D. (1992). The Federal Role in State Fiscal Stress. The State of American Federalism, 22(3), 33-47. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.pubjof.a038028
27. Gorina, E., & Maher, C. (2016). Measuring and Modeling Determinants of Fiscal Stress in US Municipalities. Arlington, Virginia: Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
28. Gregori, W. D., & Marattin, L. (2019). Determinants of fiscal distress in Italian municipalities. Empirical Economics, 56, 1269–1281. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-017-1386-3
29. Grizzle, G., & Trogen, P. (1994). Cutback Budgeting in Florida: Causes, Approaches, and Consequences. Southeastern Political Review, 22(3), 503-523. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-1346.1994.tb00342.x
30. Hendrick, R. (2004). Assessing and Measuring the Fiscal Heath of Local Governments: Focus on Chicago Suburban Municipalities. Urban Affairs Review, 40(1), 78-114. doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087404268076
31. Hoechle, D. (2007). Robust Standard Errors for Panel Regressions with Cross-Sectional Dependence. The Stata Journal, 7(3), 281-312.
32. Hou, Y. (2003). What Stabilizes State General Fund Expenditures in Downturn Years - Budget Stabilization Fund or General Fund Unreserved Undesignated Balance? Public Budgeting & Finance, 23(3), 64-91. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1540-5850.2303004
33. Huang, C. J., & Ho, Y. H. (2014). The Determinants of Local Distress in Taiwan: A Poisson Regression Analysis. In G. Lee, E-Commerce, E-Business and E-Service (pp. 209-216). London: Taylor & Francis Group.
34. Jimenez, B. S. (2009). Fiscal Stress and the Allocation of Expenditure Responsibilities between State and Local Governments: An Exploratory Study. State and Local Government Review, 41(2), 81-94. doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/0160323X0904100202
35. Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S., & Reinhart, C. (1998). The Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. IMF Staff Papers, 45(1), 1-48.
36. Kim, Y., Aldag, A., & Warner, M. E. (2020). A Balanced View: Us Local Government Managers’ Perceptions of Fiscal Stress. Public Administration Quarterly, 44(2), 172-200. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.37808/paq.44.2.2
37. Kırcı Altınkeski, B. (2023). Öncü Gösterge Olarak Mali Stres Endeksi: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Gaziantep: Özgür Yayınları. doi:https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub40
38. Kloha, P., Carol, W., & Kleine, R. (2005). Developing and Testing a Composite Model to Predict Local Fiscal Distress. Public Administration Review, 65(3), 313-323. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6210.2005.00456.x
39. Leiser, S., & Mills, S. (2019). Local Government Fiscal Health: Comparing Self-Assessments to Conventional Measures. Public Budgeting & Finance, 39(3), 75-96. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/pbaf.12226
40. Levine, C. (1978). Organizational Decline and Cutback Management. Public Administration Review, 38(4), 316-325. doi:https://doi.org/10.2307/975813
41. MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6<601::AID-JAE417>3.0.CO;2-T
42. Magkonis, G., & Tsopanakis, A. (2014). Exploring the Effects of Financial and Fiscal Vulnerabilities on G7 Economies: Evidence from SVAR Analysis. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 32, 343-367. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.06.010
43. McDonald, B. D. (2018). Local Governance and the Issue of Fiscal Health. State and Local Government Review, 50(1), 46-55. doi:https://doi.org/10.1177/0160323X18765919
44. McGranahan, L. (1999). State Budget and Business Cycle: Implication for the Federal Balanced Budget Amendment Debate. Economic Perspectives, 23, 2-17.
45. Moore, S., & Stansel, D. (1998). A Fiscal Report Card on America’s Governors: 1998. Washington, DC: Cato Institute.
46. Morgan, D., & England, R. (1983). Explaining Fiscal Stress Among Large U.S. Cities: Toward An Integrative Model. Policy Studies Review, 3(1), 73-78. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1541-1338.1983.tb00074.x
47. Pammer, W. (1990). Managing Fiscal Strain in Major American Cities: Understanding Retrenchment in the Public Sector. New York: Greenwood Press.
48. Peters, G. (1980). Fiscal Strains on Welfare State: Causes and Consequences. In C. Levine, & I. Rubin (Eds.), Fiscal Stress and Public Policy (pp. 23-49). California: Sage Publication.
49. Rose, R., & Page, E. (1982). Fiscal Stress in Cities. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511898129
50. Roza, F., & Anitasari, M. (2024). Determinants Of Regional Government Fiscal Stress In Aceh Province. Bengkulu International Conference on Economics, Management, Business and Accounting, (pp. 1573-1586). doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.33369/bicemba.2.2024.125
51. Savage, J. (1992). California's Structural Deficit Crisis. Public Budgeting & Finance, 12(2), 82-97. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5850.00940
52. Scorsone, E., & Plerhoples, C. (2010). Fiscal Stress and Cutback Management Amongst State and Local Governments: What Have We Learned and What Remains to Be Learned? State & Local Government Review, 42(2), 176-187. doi:10.1177/0160323X10378826
53. Shamsub, H., & Akoto, J. (2004). State and Local Fiscal Structures and Fiscal Stress. Journal of Public Budgeting, Accounting & Financial Management, 16(1), 40-61. doi:https://doi.org/10.1108/JPBAFM-16-01-2004-B003
54. Skidmore, M., & Scorsone, E. (2011). Causes and consequences of fiscal stress in Michigan cities. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 41(4), 360-371. doi:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2011.02.007
55. Sobel, R., & Holcombe, R. (1996). The Impact of State Rainy Day Funds in Easing State Fiscal Crises During the 1990-1991 Recession. Public Budgeting & Finance, 16(3), 28-48. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-5850.01075
56. Suryani, S. S., & Windijarto, W. (2023). Determinants of Fiscal Stress on Local Government Finances in East Java. Journal of Social Research, 2(4), 1195-1203. doi:https://doi.org/10.55324/josr.v2i4.790
57. Wu, S. Y., & Korman, H. (1987). Socioeconomic Impacts of Disinvestment on Communities in New York State. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 46(3), 261-271. doi:https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1536-7150.1987.tb01964.x
58. Yan, Y., Liu, T., Wang, N., & Yao, S. (2022). Urban sprawl and fiscal stress: Evidence from urbanizing China. Cities, 126, 103699. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103699
59. Zhang, Z., Gibson, B., & Schafer, J. G. (2017). Reexamining the Relationship Between Fiscal Stress and Outsourcing. Public Performance & Management Review, 41(1), 22-46. doi:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15309576.2017.1358645#B0003