TÜRKİYE’DEKİ BÜYÜKŞEHİR BELEDİYELERİNDE MALİ STRESİN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: ÇOK BOYUTLU BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, Türkiye’deki büyükşehir belediyelerinde mali stresin belirleyicilerini, bütçe dengesinin toplam gelire oranına dayanan bir bütçe stresi göstergesi kullanarak incelemektedir. 2009–2021 yılları arasındaki 19 büyükşehir belediyesine ait panel verilerle yürütülen analizde, ekonomik, mali, demografik ve siyasi değişkenlerin bütçe performansı üzerindeki etkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular; işsizlik oranı, net göç oranı ve belediye başkanının yeniden seçilme durumu gibi değişkenlerin daha düşük bütçe stresiyle ilişkili olduğunu; buna karşın nüfus artışı, iktidar partisiyle siyasi uyum ve ihracat/ithalat oranının mali baskıyı artırdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Beklentilere rağmen, enflasyon oranı, kişi başına GSYH ve merkezi hükümet harcamaları anlamlı bir etki göstermemiştir. Çok boyutlu bir yaklaşım benimseyen çalışma, Türkiye'deki yerel yönetimlerin yapısal ve siyasi gerçekliklerini yansıtan ampirik bir model sunarak literatüre katkı sağlamaktadır. Bulgular, yerel düzeyde mali sürdürülebilirliği güçlendirmeyi amaçlayan politika yapıcılar için önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Mali Stres
• Bütçe Stresi
• Yerel Yönetim Maliyesi
• Mali Sürdürülebilirlik
• Driscoll-Kraay Tahmin Yöntemi.

DETERMINANTS OF FISCAL STRESS IN TÜRKİYE’S METROPOLITAN MUNICIPALITIES: A MULTIDIMENSIONAL PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Öz

This study investigates the determinants of fiscal stress in Türkiye’s metropolitan municipalities by employing a budget stress indicator based on the ratio of budget balance to total revenues. This study uses annual panel data spanning from 2009 to 2021 for 19 metropolitan municipalities, incorporating a wide range of economic, fiscal, demographic, and political variables to assess their impact on municipal budgetary performance. The analysis reveals that unemployment rate, net migration rate, and political incumbency are significantly associated with lower budget stress, while population growth, ruling party alignment, and export-to-import ratios increase fiscal pressure. Contrary to expectations, inflation rate, GDP per capita, and central government expenditures within municipalities do not exhibit significant effects. The findings emphasize the complexity of fiscal stress in highly centralized governance systems, where local financial outcomes are influenced by both local dynamics and national-level constraints. By adopting a multidimensional approach, the study contributes to the literature by offering an empirical model that reflects the structural and political realities of Türkiye’s local governments. The results offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to strengthen fiscal sustainability.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Fiscal Stress
• Budget Stress
• Local Government Finance
• Fiscal Sustainability
• Driscoll-Kraay Estimation

Kaynakça

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