Finansal ve Ekonomik Kararlılık Sağlayabilmek İçin Rekabetçi Piyasalarda Banka Faiz Oranının Rolü

Year 2019, , 103 - 120, 30.04.2019

Hasan Dinçer , Serhat Yüksel , Mustafa Tevfik Kartal

https://doi.org/10.38009/ekimad.539485

Cited By: 9

Abstract

Finansal
ve ekonomik istikrar, ülkelerin iki ana önemli kavramıdır. Bu hedefe ulaşmak
için hükümetler tarafından birçok farklı eylemde bulunulmuştur. Bu süreçte,
faiz oranı kilit bir rol oynamaktadır, çünkü esas olarak yatırımların
maliyetini ve tarafların tüketim kararlarını etkilemektedir. Dolayısıyla, faiz
oranının belirleyicileri daha etkin bir finansal piyasaya sahip olmak için
tanımlanmalıdır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'deki banka faiz oranını etkileyen
faktörleri belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu çerçevede, literatür taramasına
dayanarak yedi farklı bağımsız değişken seçilmiştir. Ayrıca, 2001:01 ve 2018:02
dönem aralığı için bu değişkenlerin üç aylık verileri dikkate alınmıştır.
Ayrıca, analizde çok değişkenli uyarlanmış regresyon uzanımları (MARS) modeli
kullanılmıştır. Bulgular, enflasyonun, dış borcun, bütçe açığının, cari açığın
ve yüksek petrol fiyatlarının Türkiye'deki yüksek faiz oranının belirleyicisi
olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu nedenle, Türk hükümetinin bu makroekonomik
sorunları en aza indirmek için bazı adımlar atması gerektiği açıktır. Bu
bağlamda, enflasyon hedefleme planı hükümet ve merkez bankasının
koordinasyonunda daha etkin bir şekilde uygulanmalıdır. Ek olarak, bütçe
açığını önlemek için bütçe disiplini sürdürülmelidir. Ayrıca, cari işlemler açığının
azaltılması gerektiğinden hükümetin ithal mallara olan talebi azaltabilmesi
için bazı önlemler alması gerekmektedir. Bu eylemler sayesinde, Türkiye'deki
faiz oranını düşürmek daha mümkün olabilecektir. Düşük faiz oranı,
sürdürülebilir finansal ve ekonomik büyümeye katkıda bulunan yatırımlar
üzerinde artan bir etkiye sahiptir.

Keywords

MARS, Faiz Oranı, Türkiye, Finansal Gelişme, Sürdürülebilir Ekonomik Büyüme

The Role Of Bank Interest Rate In The Competıtıve Emergıng Markets To Provıde Fınancıal and Economıc Stabılıty

Abstract

Financial
and economic stability are two main significant concepts of the countries. Many
different actions are taken in order to reach this objective. In this process,
interest rate plays a key role because it mainly affects the cost of
investments and consumption decisions of the parties. Therefore, the
determinants of interest rate should be identified to have more effective financial
market. This study aims to determine the influencing factors of bank interest
rate in Turkey. Within this framework, seven different independent variables
are selected based on literature review. Moreover, quarterly data of these
variables for the periods between 2001:01 and 2018:02 is taken into the
consideration. Furthermore, multivariate adoptive regression splines (MARS)
model is used in the analysis process. The findings show that inflation, foreign
debt, budget deficit, current account deficit and high oil price are the main
determinants of high interest rate in Turkey. Therefore, it is obvious that
Turkish government should take some actions to minimize these macroeconomic
problems. In this context, inflation targeting plan should be implemented more
effectively with the coordination of the government and central bank.
Additionally, budget discipline should be maintained in order to prevent budget
deficit. Furthermore, the government should take some measures to reduce the
demand for imported goods, so current account deficit can be decreased. With
the help of these actions, it can be more possible to decrease interest rate in
Turkey. Lower interest rate has an increasing effect on the investment which
contributes sustainable financial and economic growth.

Keywords

MARS, Interest Rate, Turkey, Financial Development, Sustainable Economic Growth

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