Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution

Beytullah Erdogan; Abdulsamed Güneş; Arda Karaoğlu

doi:10.31466/kfbd.1755266

TR EN

Weibull Dağılımı Kullanılarak Bolu İlinin Rüzgâr Enerjisi Potansiyelinin Değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Bolu iline ait 2015–2024 yılları arasındaki yaklaşık 3560 günlük ortalama rüzgar hızı verisine dayanarak, rüzgâr gücü yoğunluğu ve hız dağılımı parametrelerinin istatistiksel analizini amaçlamaktadır. Türkiye Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’nden elde edilen veriler, rüzgâr hızı dağılımını modellemede yaygın olarak kullanılan Weibull dağılımı ile analiz edilmiştir. Modelde, Weibull dağılımının şekil ve ölçek parametreleri en küçük kareler yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiş; model başarımı R² ve RMSE gibi istatistiksel ölçütler kullanılarak değerlendirilmiştir. Ocak aylarında hesaplanan R2 değerleri 0.9912 olup Weibull analizinin kış mevsiminde verilerin yüksek doğrulukta temsil ettiğini, mayıs ve ekim ayları arasındaki dönemlerde de R2 değerinin 0.9837 değeri ile yaz ve sonbahar aylarında daha azaldığı görülmüştür. Sonuçlar Weibull dağılımının Bolu’daki rüzgâr verilerini yüksek doğrulukla temsil ettiğini göstermekte ve bu yöntemin bölgesel rüzgar enerjisi potansiyelinin belirlenmesinde güvenilir bir araç olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır Çalışma, bölgede yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarının planlanmasına ve rüzgâra dayalı enerji üretim kapasitesinin tahminine katkı sağlamaktadır.

Keywords

Rüzgar enerjisi, Rüzgar potansiyeli istatistiksel analizi, Weibull dağılım analizi, Bolu

Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution

Abstract

This study aims to statistically analyze the wind power density and speed distribution parameters based on approximately 3560 daily average wind speed data between 2015 and 2024 for Bolu province. The data obtained from the Turkish Meteorological Service were analyzed with the Weibull distribution, which is widely used in modeling wind speed distribution. In the model, the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution were estimated using the least squares method, and the model performance was evaluated using statistical measures such as R², and RMSE. The R2 values calculated in January were 0.9912, indicating that the Weibull analysis accurately represented the data during the winter season. The R2 value between May and October was 0.9837, showing a decrease during the summer and autumn months. The results show that the Weibull distribution represents the wind data in Bolu with high accuracy and that this method is a reliable tool in determining the regional wind energy potential. The study contributes to the planning of renewable energy investments in the region and the estimation of wind-based energy production capacity.

Keywords

Wind energy, Statistical analysis of wind potential, Weibull distribution analysis, Bolu

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Wind Energy Systems

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Beytullah Erdogan
0000-0002-6120-9196
Türkiye

Abdulsamed Güneş ^*
0000-0002-8652-3720
Türkiye

Arda Karaoğlu
0009-0009-0511-1379
Türkiye

Publication Date

June 5, 2026

Submission Date

July 31, 2025

Acceptance Date

February 3, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 16 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1755266

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA52PS67ZL

APA

Erdogan, B., Güneş, A., & Karaoğlu, A. (2026). Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 16(2), 860-875. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1755266

AMA

1.Erdogan B, Güneş A, Karaoğlu A. Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution. KFBD. 2026;16(2):860-875. doi:10.31466/kfbd.1755266

Chicago

Erdogan, Beytullah, Abdulsamed Güneş, and Arda Karaoğlu. 2026. “Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 16 (2): 860-75. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1755266.

EndNote

Erdogan B, Güneş A, Karaoğlu A (June 1, 2026) Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 16 2 860–875.

IEEE

[1]B. Erdogan, A. Güneş, and A. Karaoğlu, “Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution”, KFBD, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 860–875, June 2026, doi: 10.31466/kfbd.1755266.

ISNAD

Erdogan, Beytullah - Güneş, Abdulsamed - Karaoğlu, Arda. “Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi 16/2 (June 1, 2026): 860-875. https://doi.org/10.31466/kfbd.1755266.

JAMA

1.Erdogan B, Güneş A, Karaoğlu A. Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution. KFBD. 2026;16:860–875.

MLA

Erdogan, Beytullah, et al. “Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution”. Karadeniz Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, vol. 16, no. 2, June 2026, pp. 860-75, doi:10.31466/kfbd.1755266.

Vancouver

1.Beytullah Erdogan, Abdulsamed Güneş, Arda Karaoğlu. Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution. KFBD. 2026 Jun. 1;16(2):860-75. doi:10.31466/kfbd.1755266

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Weibull Dağılımı Kullanılarak Bolu İlinin Rüzgâr Enerjisi Potansiyelinin Değerlendirilmesi

Abstract

Keywords

Evaluation of Wind Energy Potential of Bolu Province Using Weibull Distribution

Abstract

Keywords

References

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Subjects

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Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

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