Türkiye’de Vergi Yapısının Gelir Dağılımı Üzerindeki Etkisi: Refah Devleti Çerçevesinde NARDL Analizi

Abstract

Vergi politikaları yalnızca kamu gelirlerinin finansmanını sağlamakla kalmayıp aynı zamanda gelir dağılımı üzerinde önemli etkiler yaratmaktadır. Özellikle dolaylı ve dolaysız vergilerin farklı dağılım etkilerine sahip olması, vergi sisteminin refah devleti çerçevesinde yeniden dağıtım fonksiyonunu önemli hale getirmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, dolaylı ve dolaysız vergilerin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkilerini incelemek ve söz konusu ilişkinin asimetrik olup olmadığını analiz etmektir. Bu kapsamda gelir dağılımını temsil eden Gini değişkeni bağımlı değişken olarak ele alınmış, dolaylı ve dolaysız vergiler açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak modele dahil edilmiştir. Analizde değişkenlerde meydana gelen pozitif ve negatif şokların etkilerini ayrı ayrı inceleyebilmek amacıyla Doğrusal Olmayan Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag [NARDL]) yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, dolaylı vergilerdeki artışların gelir eşitsizliğini artırdığını, dolaysız vergilerdeki artışların ise gelir eşitsizliğini azaltıcı yönde etkide bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, vergi yapısının refah devleti bağlamında gelir dağılımını etkileyen önemli bir politika aracı olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

• Vergi Yapısı
• Gelir Dağılımı
• Kamu Maliyesi
• Refah Devleti

The Effect of Tax Structure on Income Distribution in Türkiye: A NARDL Analysis in the Context of the Welfare State

Abstract

Tax policies play a crucial role not only in financing public expenditures but also in shaping income distribution. In particular, the different distributional effects of indirect and direct taxes make the tax system an important instrument in the context of the welfare state. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of indirect and direct taxes on income distribution and to investigate whether this relationship is asymmetric. In this context, the Gini coefficient is used as the dependent variable representing income inequality, while indirect and direct taxes are included as explanatory variables. To capture the asymmetric effects of positive and negative changes in the variables, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach is employed. The empirical findings indicate that increases in indirect taxes lead to higher income inequality, whereas increases in direct taxes contribute to a reduction in income inequality. These findings suggest that the structure of the tax system plays a significant role in income distribution under welfare state policies.

Keywords

• Tax Structure
• Income Distribution
• Public Finance
• Welfare State

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