TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ

Duygu Çelik

doi:10.33723/rs.2030437

TR EN

TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de kapsayıcı büyüme olgusu çerçevesinde kadın istihdamı, ekonomik büyüme, beşeri sermaye (yükseköğrenim) ve demografik yapı (doğurganlık) arasındaki kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın dönem aralığı 1995-2024 yılları arasıdır. Çalışmanın ampirik analiz kısmında yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan Zivot-Andrews tek yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada makroekonomik ve kurumsal şokları temsil eden kırılma yılları 2000, 2002, 2004, 2012 olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu kırılma yılları ARDL sınır testi modeline kukla değişken olarak entegre edilmiştir. Elde edilen ampirik bulgular, değişkenler arasında güçlü bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin varlığını doğrulamaktadır. Uzun dönem katsayı tahminlerine göre, Türkiye'de ekonomik büyümenin kadın istihdamı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisi bulunmamakta olup, bu durum büyümenin istihdam yaratma ve kapsayıcılık kapasitesinin zayıf olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Öte yandan, yükseköğrenim okullaşma oranının kadın istihdamını pozitif yönde etkilediği, doğurganlık oranının ise şiddetli ve negatif bir etki yarattığı tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönem analizinde hesaplanan hata düzeltme katsayısı, sistemdeki şokların yaklaşık iki yıl içinde dengeye yakınsadığını göstermektedir. Politika yapıcıların, büyümenin niceliğinden ziyade niteliğine odaklanması gerekmektedir. Ayrıca çocuk bakım hizmetlerinin kurumsallaştırılması gibi yapısal reformları hayata geçirmesi, kapsayıcı büyümenin tesisi için oldukça gereklidir.

Keywords

Kapsayıcı Büyüme, Kadınların İşgücüne Katılımı, Yapısal Kırılmalar, ARDL Sınır Testi, Türkiye Ekonomisi

Supporting Institution

Bu araştırma için herhangi bir kurum, kuruluş veya fon sağlayıcıdan finansal/maddi destek alınmamıştır.

Ethical Statement

Bu çalışma etik kurul izni gerektirmemektedir.

Dynamics of Inclusive Growth and Female Labor Force Participation in Türkiye: An ARDL Analysis Considering Structural Breaks

Abstract

This study investigates the short-term and long-term relationships between female labor force participation, economic growth, human capital, and demographic structure within the framework of inclusive growth in Türkiye. The study covers the period from 1995 to 2024. The empirical analysis utilizes the Zivot-Andrews structural break unit root test, which considers structural breaks. The break years representing macroeconomic and institutional shocks were identified as 2000, 2002, 2004, and 2012. These break years were integrated as dummy variables into the ARDL bounds test model. The empirical findings confirm the existence of a strong cointegration relationships between the variables. According to long-term coefficient estimates, economic growth in Türkiye does not have a statistically significant effect on female labor force participation. On the other hand, at the 10% significance level, it was found that the higher education enrollment rate positively affects female labor force participation, while the fertility rate has a negative impact. The error correction coefficient calculated in the short-term analysis shows that shocks in the system converge to equilibrium in approximately two years. Policymakers need to focus on the quality of growth rather than its quantity. Furthermore, implementing structural reforms, such as the institutionalization of childcare services, is crucial for establishing inclusive growth.

Keywords

Inclusive Growth, Female Labor Force Participation, Structural Breaks, ARDL Bounds Test, Turkish Economy

Supporting Institution

No financial support or grant was received from any institution, organization, or funding agency for this research.

Ethical Statement

This study does not require ethics committee approval.

References

Ali, I., & Son, H. H. (2007). Measuring inclusive growth. Asian Development Review, 24(1), 11–31. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0116110507000024
Becker, G. S. (1965). A theory of the allocation of time. The Economic Journal, 75(299), 493–517. https://doi.org/10.2307/2228949
Bloom, D. E., Canning, D., Fink, G., & Finlay, J. E. (2009). Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend. Journal of Economic Growth, 14(2), 79–101. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-009-9039-9
Dayıoğlu, M., & Kırdar, M. G. (2010). Determinants of and trends in labor force participation of women in Turkey (Working Paper No. 5). State Planning Organization and World Bank Welfare and Social Policy Analytical Work Program. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/466591468316462301
Goldin, C. (1994). The U-shaped female labor force function in economic development and economic history, NBER Working Papers 4707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. https://ssrn.com/abstract=233692
Kabeer, N. (2012). Women’s economic empowerment and inclusive growth: labour markets and enterprise development. CDPR Discussion Paper, 29/12, 1-70. https://soas-repository.worktribe.com/output/384662
Klasen, S. (2002). Low schooling for girls, slower growth for all? Cross-country evidence on the effect of gender inequality in education on economic development. The World Bank Economic Review, 16(3), 345–373. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhf004
İlkkaracan, İ. (2012). Why so few women in the labor market in Turkey? Feminist Economics, 18(1), 1–37. https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2011.649358
OECD. (2023). Labour force participation rate (indicator). https://www.oecd.org/en/data/indicators/labour-force-participation-rate.html Erişim Tarihi:31.08.2026
Tansel, A. (2002). Economic development and female labor force participation in Turkey: Time-series evidence and cross-province estimates (ERC Working Papers in Economics No. 01/05). METU Economic Research Center. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.301946

Details

Primary Language

Turkish

Subjects

Applied Macroeconometrics, Macroeconomic Theory

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Duygu Çelik ^*
0000-0003-3298-2152
Türkiye

Publication Date

October 30, 2026

Submission Date

September 1, 2026

Acceptance Date

October 28, 2026

Published in Issue

Year 2026 Volume: 9 Number: 4

DOI

https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.2030437

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA29HF23UJ

APA

Çelik, D. (2026). TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ. R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal, 9(4), 398-404. https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.2030437

AMA

1.Çelik D. TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ. R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal. 2026;9(4):398-404. doi:10.33723/rs.2030437

Chicago

Çelik, Duygu. 2026. “TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ”. R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal 9 (4): 398-404. https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.2030437.

EndNote

Çelik D (October 1, 2026) TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ. R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal 9 4 398–404.

IEEE

[1]D. Çelik, “TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ”, R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 398–404, Oct. 2026, doi: 10.33723/rs.2030437.

ISNAD

Çelik, Duygu. “TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ”. R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal 9/4 (October 1, 2026): 398-404. https://doi.org/10.33723/rs.2030437.

JAMA

1.Çelik D. TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ. R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal. 2026;9:398–404.

MLA

Çelik, Duygu. “TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ”. R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal, vol. 9, no. 4, Oct. 2026, pp. 398-04, doi:10.33723/rs.2030437.

Vancouver

1.Duygu Çelik. TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ. R&S - Research Studies Anatolia Journal. 2026 Oct. 1;9(4):398-404. doi:10.33723/rs.2030437

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TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ

TÜRKİYE’DE KAPSAYICI BÜYÜME VE KADINLARIN İŞGÜCÜNE KATILIMI: YAPISAL KIRILMALARI DİKKATE ALAN ARDL ANALİZİ

Abstract

Keywords

Supporting Institution

Ethical Statement

Dynamics of Inclusive Growth and Female Labor Force Participation in Türkiye: An ARDL Analysis Considering Structural Breaks

Abstract

Keywords

Supporting Institution

Ethical Statement

References

Details

Primary Language

Subjects

Journal Section

Authors

Publication Date

Submission Date

Acceptance Date

Published in Issue

DOI

IZ

Cite

Aim & Scope

Author Guidelines

Ethical Principles and Publication Policy

Price Policy

Indexes

Citation Indexes

Other Indexes

Journal Boards

CHIEF EDITOR

BOARD OF EDITORS

Advisory Board

Editorial Board

Turkish Language Editor

English Language Editor

Editorial Assistant

Section Editor