The Effect of Profitability of Companies in Borsa Istanbul on Economic Growth

Öz

In study, how company-scale data can be used to analyze economic outlook is investigated. For this purpose, the effect of changes in the operating profitability of companies on both nominal and real economic growth is analyzed. Among the financials of the companies, it is considered that operating profitability reflect the changes in macroeconomic outlook at the best way. A single aggregate earnings is formed by using earnings before interest, tax and depreciation of companies quoted in Borsa İstanbul. Findings show that changes in profitability of companies can be a leading indicator in predicting economic growth. It is found that findings obtained as a result of the analysis are in parallel with international literature, the effect of the changes in profitability of companies on real economic growth is limited to the subsequent quarter, but the effect on nominal economic growth extends until the following three quarters in Turkey. Even when bond yield, return of Borsa İstanbul 100 Index, and yield slope, which are used as control variables, are included in the model, the change in operating profitability is still statistically significant. In this paper, it is revealed that the profitability changes of companies provide researchers useful information about macroeconomic outlook.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Change in Profitability
• Earnings Index
• Economic Growth
• Aggregate Earnings
• Borsa İstanbul

Borsa İstanbul’daki Şirketlerin Karlılığının Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi

Öz

Çalışmada şirket ölçeğindeki verilerin, makroekonomik görünümü analiz etmede nasıl kullanabileceği araştırılmaktadır. Bu amaçla, şirketlerin faaliyet karlılığındaki değişimlerin hem nominal hem de reel ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi incelenmiştir. Şirketlerin finansal tabloları içerisinden makroekonomik görünümü en net faaliyet karlılıklarındaki değişimlerin yansıtacağı değerlendirilerek, Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören şirketlerin faiz, amortisman ve vergi öncesi kar marjlarından yararlanılarak tek bir ağırlıklandırılmış kar oluşturulmuştur. Bulgular, şirketlerin faaliyet karlılığındaki değişimlerin ekonomik büyümeyi tahmin etmede öncü bir gösterge olabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Analiz sonucunda elde edilen bulguların uluslararası alanda yapılan literatürle paralel olduğu, Türkiye özelinde şirket karlılığındaki değişimlerin reel ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisinin takip eden çeyrekle sınırlı olduğu, ancak nominal ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisinin takip eden 3 çeyreğe kadar devam ettiği tespit edilmiştir. Kontrol değişkenleri olarak kullanılan tahvil getirisi, Borsa İstanbul 100 endeksinin getirisi ve getiri eğimi modele dâhil edildiğinde dahi, faaliyet karlılığındaki değişim istatistiki olarak anlamlılığını kaybetmemiştir. Bu çalışmada şirketlerin karlılık değişimlerinin, araştırmacılara, makroekonomik görünüm ile ilgili yararlı bilgiler sağladığı ortaya koyulmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Karlılık Değişimi
• Kar Endeksi
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Reel Büyüme
• Ağırlıklandırılmış Kar
• Borsa İstanbul

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