Structural Dynamics of the Russia–China Strategic Partnership: Asymmetry, Uncertainty and the Alliance Debate

Öz

This study aims to examine the strategic partnership between Russia and China within the context of global power balances, debates on multipolarity, and relations with the West. The study employs a qualitative document analysis method, systematically analyzing strategic documents, academic studies, and official policy texts produced by the United States, NATO, China, and Russia. The findings demonstrate that Russia–China relations are characterized not by an ideological alliance but by a pragmatic, interest-based partnership. While both actors seek to avoid direct confrontation with the United States, they pursue policies aimed at preserving strategic autonomy and maintaining room for maneuver. Sino–Russian cooperation has deepened through diplomatic coordination, economic interaction, and joint activities in the security domain. Nevertheless, structural asymmetries and elements of mutual caution remain salient features of the relationship. The article moves beyond normative assumptions of alliance formation by reassessing Russia–China relations through the concepts of “strategic ambiguity” and “limited coordination,” and offers an analytical framework explaining why major powers frequently prefer conditional and asymmetric forms of cooperation over fully institutionalized alliances.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Russia
• China
• global security
• strategic partnership
• multipolarity

Rusya–Çin Stratejik Ortaklığının Yapısal Dinamikleri: Asimetri, Belirsizlik ve İttifak Tartışması

Öz

Bu çalışma, Rusya ile Çin arasındaki stratejik ortaklığı küresel güç dengeleri, çok kutupluluk tartışmaları ve Batı ile ilişkiler çerçevesinde incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada nitel doküman analizi yöntemi kullanılmış; ABD, NATO, Çin ve Rusya’ya ait stratejik belgeler, akademik çalışmalar ve resmî politika metinleri sistematik biçimde analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular, Rusya–Çin ilişkilerinin ideolojik bir ittifaktan ziyade pragmatik çıkar temelli bir ortaklık karakteri taşıdığını ortaya koymaktadır. Her iki aktör ABD ile doğrudan bir çatışmadan kaçınırken stratejik özerkliklerini ve manevra alanlarını korumaya yönelik politikalar izlemektedir. Rusya-Çin iş birliği, diplomatik koordinasyon, ekonomik etkileşim ve güvenlik alanındaki ortak faaliyetlerle derinleşmektedir. Bununla birlikte ilişkide yapısal asimetri ve karşılıklı temkin unsurları dikkat çekmektedir. Makale, Rusya–Çin ilişkilerini normatif ittifak varsayımlarının ötesine taşıyarak, “stratejik belirsizlik” ve “sınırlı eşgüdüm” kavramları üzerinden yeniden değerlendirmekte; büyük güçlerin neden sıklıkla kurumsallaşmış ittifaklar yerine koşullu ve asimetrik iş birliği biçimlerini tercih ettiğini açıklayan analitik bir çerçeve sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Rusya
• Çin
• küresel güvenlik
• stratejik ortaklık
• çok kutupluluk

Kaynakça

1. Bolt, P. J. (2014). Sino-Russian relations in a changing world order. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 8(4), 47–69. https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/26270816
2. Cheng, J. Y. S. (2013). China’s regional strategy and challenges in East Asia. China Perspectives, (2), 53–65. https://doi.org/10.4000/chinaperspectives.6182
3. People’s Republic of China & Russian Federation. (2016). Joint declaration of the President of the People’s Republic of China and the President of the Russian Federation on strengthening global strategic stability (UN Doc. A/70/981–S/2016/601). United Nations. https://docs.un.org/en/A/70/981
4. Xin, G. (2014). Rossiysko-kitayskiye otnosheniya: model' otnosheniy mezhdu novymi derzhavami [Rus-Çin İlişkileri: Yeni Güçler Arasındaki İlişkiler Modeli]. Vestnik Moskovskogo universiteta. Seriya 12. Politicheskiye nauki, (6), 7–22.
5. Xinhua. (2018, June 8). Xi, Putin agree to promote greater development of China-Russia ties at high level [Press release]. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-06/08/c_137240624.htm
6. Dreyer, J. T. (2015, February 3). China and Russia: A limited liability partnership. Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/article/2015/02/china-and-russia-a-limited-liability-partnership/
7. Gabbard, T. (2025). Annual threat assessment of the U.S. intelligence community [Statement for the record]. Office of the Director of National Intelligence.
8. Godement, F., Duchâtel, M., Sheldon-Duplaix, A., Makocki, M., Julienne, M., & Doyon, J. (2016). China and Russia: Gaming the West? European Council on Foreign Relations. http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep21590

9. Heer, P. (2020). Russia–China relations and implications for U.S. defense strategy. Survival, 62(5), 7–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2020.1819641
10. Igrunov, V. V. (2005). Chto proishodit v treugol'nike Moskva-Deli-Pekin? [What is happening in the Moscow-Delhi-Beijing triangle?]. Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies.
11. Jakobson, L., Holtom, P., Knox, D., & Peng, J. (2011). China’s energy and security relations with Russia: Hopes, frustrations and uncertainties (SIPRI Policy Paper No. 29). Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.. http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep19196.7
12. Kerr, D. (2005). The Sino-Russian partnership and U.S. policy toward North Korea: From hegemony to concert in Northeast Asia. International Studies Quarterly, 49(3), 411–437. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3693601
13. Klistorin, V. I. (2005). Pochemu Rossiya ne Kitay? [Why Russia is not China?]. Kontinent-Sibir.
14. Krickovic, A. (2017). Strategic cooperation without alliance: Russia–China relations in a changing international order. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 10(3), 299–329. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/pox012
15. Korolev, A. (2016). Systemic balancing and regional hedging: China–Russia relations. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 9(4), 375–397. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/pow011
16. Korolev, A. N. (2019). Naskol'ko blizki Rossiya i Kitai? Voenno-strategicheskoe sotrudnichestvo v mezhdunarodnykh otnosheniyakh [Rusya ve Çin ne kadar yakın? Uluslararası ilişkilerde askeri-stratejik işbirliğinin değerlendirilmesi]. Rossiya i ATR, (3), 138–160. https://doi.org/10.24411/1026-8804-2019-10043
17. Korolev, A. (2022). The tactical-strategic separation in the Russia-China military relationship. Journal of Contemporary China, 31(135), 441–458. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2021.1966896
18. Kozhukhova, K. Y. (2020). Rossiysko-kitayskoye vzaimodeystviye v sfere obespecheniya strategicheskoy stabil'nosti [Rusya-Çin stratejik istikrarı sağlama alanındaki etkileşimi] [Tez/Rapor]. Moskovskiy gosudarstvennyy lingvisticheskiy universitet.
19. Larin, A. G. (2002). Kitayskaya politika Rossii v kontekste al'ternativy "Zapad–Vostok" [China's policy of Russia in the context of the "West–East" alternative]. In Rossiya v usloviyah transformatsiy [Russia in conditions of transformations] (No. 21, pp. 104–115).
20. Li, I. (2017). Novyye vozmozhnosti razvitiya dlya Kitaya i Rossii v ramkakh proyekta “Odin poyas i odin put” [Çin ve Rusya için "Bir Kuşak Bir Yol" projesi kapsamında yeni kalkınma fırsatları]. Aktual'naya Geopolitika.
21. Luzyanin, S. G. (2021). Rossiysko-kitayskoye partnerstvo obraztsa 2021 goda: global'nyye, regional'nyye i dvustoronniye izmereniya [2021 model Rusya-Çin ortaklığı: Küresel, bölgesel ve ikili boyutlar]. Vysshaya shkola ekonomiki; MGIMO University.
22. Lo, B. (2004). The long sunset of strategic partnership: Russia's evolving China policy. International Affairs, 80(2), 295–309. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2346.2004.00397.x
23. Ma, Kh. (2015). Soyuz Rossii i Kitaya – sovmestnyy vybor dvukh gosudarstv [The Russia–China alliance – a joint choice of two states] [Doctoral dissertation/Master's thesis, Moscow State University of Economics, Statistics and Informatics].
24. Malyavin, V. V. (2005). Kitay upravlyayemyy: Staryy dobryy menedzhment [China managed: The good old management]. Evropa.
25. Mearsheimer, J. J. (2016). Büyük güç politikasının trajedisi (Y. Yılmaz, Çev.). Küre Yayınları.
26. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (2022). NATO 2022 Strategic Concept: Madrid, 29 June 2022. https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2022/6/pdf/290622-strategic-concept.pdf
27. Office of the President of Russia. (2022, February 4). Joint statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the international relations entering a new era and the global sustainable development.https://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770
28. Ozawa, M. (2019). Russia and China: “Axis of convenience” or “stable strategic partnership”? NATO Defense College. http://www.jstor.com/stable/resrep19853
29. Sherr, J., & Juriš, F. (2021). How to think about the China–Russia partnership. International Centre for Defence and Security. https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep54301
30. Shlapentokh, V. (2007). China in the Russian mind today: Ambivalence and defeatism. Europe-Asia Studies, 59(1), 1–21. https://www.jstor.org/stable/204513
31. Solomentseva, A. (2014). The “rise” of China in the eyes of Russia: A source of threats or new opportunities? Connections: The Quarterly Journal, 14(1), 3–40.
32. Stokes, J., Wright, E., & Schochet, N. (2024). The China-Russia entente in East Asia: Contending with authoritarian partnership in a critical region (Indo-Pacific Security Program Report). Center for a New American Security. https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/documents/Russia-and-China_IPS_2024-final.pdf
33. Portyakov, V. Ya. (2021). Rossiysko-kitayskiye otnosheniya: analiz sovremennykh tendentsiy [Russian–Chinese relations: Analysis of contemporary trends]. Institute of China and Contemporary Asia of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
34. Tan, C. (2020). Rossiya i Kitay: novyy etap voyenno-strategicheskogo sotrudnichestva [Rusya ve Çin: Askeri-stratejik iş birliğinde yeni aşama]. Aktual'nyye Problemy Sovremennykh Mezhdunarodnykh Otnosheniy.
35. Tan, V. (2017). Analiz rossiysko-kitayskikh otnosheniy na sovremennom etape (glazami kitaytsev) [Analysis of Russian–Chinese relations at the present stage: From the perspective of the Chinese]. Kitay v mirovoy i regional'noy politike. Istoriya i sovremennost', 22(22), 203–213. https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/analiz-rossiysko-kitayskih-otnosheniy-na-sovremennom-etape-glazami-kitaytsev
36. The White House. (2015). National security strategy of the United States of America. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/2015_national_security_strategy.pdf
37. The White House. (2017). National security strategy of the United States of America. https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
38. The White House. (2022). Biden-Harris administration’s national security strategy. https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf
39. Trenin, D. (2019, 19 Kasım). How cozy is Russia and China's military relationship? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2019/11/how-cozy-is-russia-and-chinas-military-relationship
40. Wishnick, E., & Taffer, A. (2022, 14 Mart). Ukraine invasion tests the relationship between Russia and China. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/14/ukraine-russia-china-partnership-test/
41. Webber, M. (2022). The strategic concept and the US–China–Russia strategic triangle. In T. Tardy (Ed.), NATO’s new strategic concept (pp. 145–170). NATO Defense College.
42. Zhao, S. (2018). A community of shared future for mankind: China’s vision for a new global order. Contemporary International Relations, 28(1), 1–17.