Araştırma Makalesi
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THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE INSTABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 39 - 53, 06.08.2018

Öz

In this study, the effects of oil
price instability on economic growth between 1981 and 2015 are investigated.
The considered Vector Error Correction model shows
that oil price and real effective exchange rate were positively related to
economic growth, whereas government expenditure and inflation had a negative
relationship. Oil price Granger caused economic growth and exchange rate, while
exchange rate Granger caused inflation. The variance decomposition result
indicates that oil price instability is the largest source of variation in
economic growth and exchange rates, while the largest source of variation in
the inflation rate is exchange rate followed by oil price. 

Kaynakça

  • References Adamu, A. (2015). The Impact of Global Fall in Oil Prices on the Nigerian Crude Oil Revenue and Its Prices. Dubai: The Second Middle East Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance and Banking.Adelman, A. (2000). Determinants of Growth and Development of the Australian Economy. Australian journal of Economics, 3(3), 19-42.Akpan, E. O. (2009). Oil Price Shock and Nigeria’s Macroeconomy. Journal of Economics, 4(2), 12-19.Budina, N., & Wijnbergen, S. v. (2008). Managing Oil Revenue Volatility in Nigeria: The Role of Fiscal Policy. In D. S. Go, & J. Page, Africa at a Turning Point? Growth, Aid, and External shocks (pp. 427-459). Washington DC : The World Bank.Corden, M. W., & Neary, P. J. (1982). Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy. The Economic Journal, 92(368), 825-848.Darby, M. (1982). The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession. American Economic Review, 72(4), 738-751.Duncan, J. (2008). Growth Implications of Variations in International Oil Prices: The Nigerian Economy. Economic Journal of Nigeria, 6(3), 61-69.Ebele, E. (2015). Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation. European Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 34(1), 1901-1918.EIA. (2016). Country Analysis Brief: Nigeria. Independent statistics and analysis. Washington, DC: U.S. Energy Information Administration.Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the Macro Economy Since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248.Hooker, M. A. (2002). Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34(2), 540-561.Laser, Y. (1987). Interest Rate, Inflation, Growth and the Direction of Hong Kong Economy. Chinese Economic Review, 120(3), 74-86.Majumdar, R. (2016, July 22). The Oil Mighty: The Economic Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations. Global Economic Outlook, pp. 70-77.Olaokum, O. O. (2000). Oil Price Shock Effects on Economies of African Nations. African Economic Journal, 3(10), 30-39.Olomola, P. A. (2006). Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Economic Activity in Nigeria. African Economic and Business Review, 4(2), 40-45.Olusegun, O. A. (2008). Oil Price Shocks and the Nigerian Economy: A Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Analysis. Journal of Economics Theory, 2(4), 124-130.Oriakhi, D. E., & Osaze, I. D. (2013). Oil Price Volatility and its Consequences on the Growth of the Nigerian Economy: An Examination (1970-2010). Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(5), 683-702.Osije, E. (1983). The Nigerian Economy and its Growth Prospects. National Economic Journal of Nigeria, 7(3), 33-39.

İSTİKRARSIZ PETROL FİYATLARININ NİJERYA EKONOMİK BÜYÜMESİNE ETKİLERİ

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 39 - 53, 06.08.2018

Öz



Petrol
fiyatlarındaki istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyümeye etkilerinin araştırıldığı bu
çalışmada Nijerya model ülke olarak kullanılmış ve 1981 ile 2015 yılları
arasındaki dönem değerlendirmeye alinmistir. Vektör hata düzeltme modeli (Vector Error Correction model)
kullanılarak yapılan araştırmada petrol fiyatları ve gerçek etkili döviz kuru
(real effective exchange rate) ile ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif bir ilişki
olduğu buna karsın hükûmet harcamaları ve enflasyonun negatif olarak büyümeye
etki ettiği tespit edilmiştir.  Petrol fiyatı zaman serisi (Granger) ekonomik büyümeye ve
döviz kuruna neden olurken, döviz kuru zaman serisi (Granger) enflasyona neden
olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Varyans ayrıştırma sonuçları, petrol fiyat
istikrarsızlığının ekonomik büyüme ve döviz kurlarındaki en büyük değişim
kaynağı olduğunu gösterirken, enflasyon oranındaki en büyük değişimin, döviz
kuru ve petrol fiyatlarındaki istikrarsızlık sonucunda oluştuğu
gözlemlenmiştir. 



Kaynakça

  • References Adamu, A. (2015). The Impact of Global Fall in Oil Prices on the Nigerian Crude Oil Revenue and Its Prices. Dubai: The Second Middle East Conference on Global Business, Economics, Finance and Banking.Adelman, A. (2000). Determinants of Growth and Development of the Australian Economy. Australian journal of Economics, 3(3), 19-42.Akpan, E. O. (2009). Oil Price Shock and Nigeria’s Macroeconomy. Journal of Economics, 4(2), 12-19.Budina, N., & Wijnbergen, S. v. (2008). Managing Oil Revenue Volatility in Nigeria: The Role of Fiscal Policy. In D. S. Go, & J. Page, Africa at a Turning Point? Growth, Aid, and External shocks (pp. 427-459). Washington DC : The World Bank.Corden, M. W., & Neary, P. J. (1982). Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy. The Economic Journal, 92(368), 825-848.Darby, M. (1982). The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession. American Economic Review, 72(4), 738-751.Duncan, J. (2008). Growth Implications of Variations in International Oil Prices: The Nigerian Economy. Economic Journal of Nigeria, 6(3), 61-69.Ebele, E. (2015). Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation. European Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, 34(1), 1901-1918.EIA. (2016). Country Analysis Brief: Nigeria. Independent statistics and analysis. Washington, DC: U.S. Energy Information Administration.Hamilton, J. D. (1983). Oil and the Macro Economy Since World War II. Journal of Political Economy, 91, 228-248.Hooker, M. A. (2002). Are Oil Shocks Inflationary? Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34(2), 540-561.Laser, Y. (1987). Interest Rate, Inflation, Growth and the Direction of Hong Kong Economy. Chinese Economic Review, 120(3), 74-86.Majumdar, R. (2016, July 22). The Oil Mighty: The Economic Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations. Global Economic Outlook, pp. 70-77.Olaokum, O. O. (2000). Oil Price Shock Effects on Economies of African Nations. African Economic Journal, 3(10), 30-39.Olomola, P. A. (2006). Oil Price Shocks and Aggregate Economic Activity in Nigeria. African Economic and Business Review, 4(2), 40-45.Olusegun, O. A. (2008). Oil Price Shocks and the Nigerian Economy: A Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Analysis. Journal of Economics Theory, 2(4), 124-130.Oriakhi, D. E., & Osaze, I. D. (2013). Oil Price Volatility and its Consequences on the Growth of the Nigerian Economy: An Examination (1970-2010). Asian Economic and Financial Review, 3(5), 683-702.Osije, E. (1983). The Nigerian Economy and its Growth Prospects. National Economic Journal of Nigeria, 7(3), 33-39.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İşletme
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Ergin Akalpler 0000-0002-9547-7842

Abdullah Nuhur Bakar Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-9547-7842

Yayımlanma Tarihi 6 Ağustos 2018
Kabul Tarihi 27 Temmuz 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Akalpler, E., & Bakar, A. N. (2018). THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE INSTABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA. Business Economics and Management Research Journal, 1(1), 39-53.

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