THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE INSTABILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM NIGERIA

Yıl 2018, Cilt: 1 Sayı: 1, 39 - 53, 06.08.2018

Ergin Akalpler , Abdullah Nuhur Bakar

Öz

In this study, the effects of oil
price instability on economic growth between 1981 and 2015 are investigated.
The considered Vector Error Correction model shows
that oil price and real effective exchange rate were positively related to
economic growth, whereas government expenditure and inflation had a negative
relationship. Oil price Granger caused economic growth and exchange rate, while
exchange rate Granger caused inflation. The variance decomposition result
indicates that oil price instability is the largest source of variation in
economic growth and exchange rates, while the largest source of variation in
the inflation rate is exchange rate followed by oil price. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Growth, Oil Price Instability, Vector Error Correction Model, Granger Causality Test, Variance Decomposition

İSTİKRARSIZ PETROL FİYATLARININ NİJERYA EKONOMİK BÜYÜMESİNE ETKİLERİ

Öz

Petrol
fiyatlarındaki istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyümeye etkilerinin araştırıldığı bu
çalışmada Nijerya model ülke olarak kullanılmış ve 1981 ile 2015 yılları
arasındaki dönem değerlendirmeye alinmistir. Vektör hata düzeltme modeli (Vector Error Correction model)
kullanılarak yapılan araştırmada petrol fiyatları ve gerçek etkili döviz kuru
(real effective exchange rate) ile ekonomik büyüme arasında pozitif bir ilişki
olduğu buna karsın hükûmet harcamaları ve enflasyonun negatif olarak büyümeye
etki ettiği tespit edilmiştir.  Petrol fiyatı zaman serisi (Granger) ekonomik büyümeye ve
döviz kuruna neden olurken, döviz kuru zaman serisi (Granger) enflasyona neden
olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. Varyans ayrıştırma sonuçları, petrol fiyat
istikrarsızlığının ekonomik büyüme ve döviz kurlarındaki en büyük değişim
kaynağı olduğunu gösterirken, enflasyon oranındaki en büyük değişimin, döviz
kuru ve petrol fiyatlarındaki istikrarsızlık sonucunda oluştuğu
gözlemlenmiştir. 

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik Büyüme, Petrol Fiyatı Kararsızlığı, Vektör Hata Düzeltme Modeli, Granger Nedensellik Testi, Varyans Ayrışması

Kaynakça

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