G7 VE E7 ÜLKELERİNDE DOĞUŞTA BEKLENEN YAŞAM SÜRESİNE ETKİ EDEN FAKTÖRLERİN BELİRLENMESİ: PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Doğuşta beklenen yaşam süresi ülkelerin ekonomik, sosyal ve çevresel gelişmişlik düzeyleri hakkında önemli bilgiler sunmaktadır. Bireyin ortalama kaç yıl yaşayacağını ifade eden bu gösterge, ülkelerin refah standartları ile doğrudan ilişkilidir. Bu çalışmada G7 (Almanya, İtalya, Fransa, Japonya, Kanada, Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Birleşik Krallık) ve E7 (Çin, Endonezya, Türkiye, Brezilya, Rusya, Hindistan, Meksika) ülkeleri için 2007-2022 yıllık veriler kapsamında doğuşta beklenen yaşam süresi (LIFE) ile ekonomik performans puanı (ECO), çevresel performans endeksi (EPI) ve sosyal gelişim endeksi (SPI) arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Çalışmada ekonomik performans puanının elde edilmesinde ÇKKV (Çok Kriterli Karar Verme) yöntemlerinden CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) ve CoCoSo (Combined Compromise Solution) analiz yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Değişkenlerde yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve heterojenlik tespit edilmiştir. Ardından Boot-IPS ikinci nesil birim kök testi uygulanarak Panel LM eşbütünleşme testi ve AMG (Genişletilmiş Ortalama Grup) uzun dönem katsayı tahmini yapılmıştır. Buradan elde edilen bilgilere göre G7 ülkelerinde EPI değişkenindeki bir birimlik artış LIFE bağımlı değişkenini 0.017 birim artıracağı tespit edilmiştir. E7 ülkelerinde ise ECO, EPI ve SPI değişkenlerinin LIFE bağımlı değişkenini sırasıyla 0.002, 0.001 ve 0.018 birim artıracağı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğuşta Beklenen Yaşam Süresi
• G7 ülkeleri
• E7 Ülkeleri
• Panel Eşbütünleşme Analizi

DETERMINING THE FACTORS AFFECTING LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH IN G7 AND E7 COUNTRIES: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Öz

Life expectancy at birth is a crucial metric for evaluating the economic, social and environmental development levels of countries. This indicator, which is used to express the average number of years that an individual is expected to live, is directly related to the welfare standards of countries. This study examines the relationship between life expectancy at birth (LIFE) and economic performance score (ECO), environmental performance index (EPI) and social development index (SPI) for G7 (Germany, Italy, France, Japan, Canada, the United States of America and the United Kingdom) and E7 (China, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico) countries based on annual data from 2007 to 2022. In the present study, the economic performance scores was obtained by employing MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Making) methods specifically the CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation) and CoCoSo (Combined Compromise Solution) analysis methods. The presence of cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity were detected among the variables. Subsequently, the Boot-IPS second generation unit root test was employed, followed by the Panel LM cointegration test and the AMG (Augmented Mean Group) long-run coefficient estimation. The findings of this study indicate that a one-unit increase in the EPI variable within G7 countries associated with a 0.017 unit rise in the LIFE dependent variable. In E7 countries, ECO, EPI and SPI variables have been found to increase the LIFE dependent variable by 0.002, 0.001 and 0.018 units, respectively.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Life Expectancy at Birth
• G7 Countries
• E7 Countries
• Panel Cointegration Analysis

Kaynakça

1. Acar, Y. (2020). Sağlık harcamaları, kişi başına düşen gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla ve doğuşta beklenen yaşam süresi arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği. BMIJ, 8(1), 624-639.
2. Acemoğlu, D. & Johnson, S. (2007). Disease and development: The effect of life expectancy on economic growth. Journal of Political Economy, 115(6), 925-985. doi:10.1086/529000 .
3. AlTi Global SPI. (2025). https://www.socialprogress.org/alti-global-social-progress-index (Erişim Tarihi: 11.05.2025).
4. Bai, J. & Ng, S. (2004). A panic attack on unit roots and cointegration. Econometrica, 72(4), 1127-1178.
5. Bayar, Y., Gavriletea, M.D., Pintea, M.O. & Sechel, I.C. (2021). Impact of environment, life expectancy and real GDP per capita on health expenditures: Evidence from the EU member states. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 18(24):13176. doi: 10.3390/ijerph182413176.
6. Bilas, V., Franc, S. & Bosnjak, M. (2014). Determinant factors of life expectancy at birth in the European union countries. Collegium Antropologicum, 38(1), 1-9. PMID: 24851591.
7. Blázquez-Fernández, C., Cantarero-Prieto, D. & Pascual-Saez, M. (2018). Does rising income inequality reduce life expectancy? New evidence for 26 European countries (1995–2014). Global Economic Review, 1-16.
8. Block, S., Emerson, J.W., Esty, D.C., de Sherbinin, A. & Wendling, Z.A. (2024). 2024 Environmental performance ındex. New Haven, CT: Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy, epi.yale.edu.

9. Breitung, J. (2000). The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. Advances in Econometrics, 15, 161-177.
10. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier test and ıts application to model specification in econometrics. Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The lagrange multiplier tesReview of Economic Studies, 47, 239-253.
11. Chetty, R., Stepner, M., Abraham, S., Lin, S., Scuderi, B., Turner, N., Bergeron, A. & Cutler, D. (2016). The association between income and life expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014. JAMA, 315(16), 1750-66. doi: 10.1001/jama.2016.4226.
12. Choi, I. (2001). Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 249-272.
13. Deshpande, N., Kumar, A. & Ramaswami, R. (2014). The effect of national healthcare expenditure on life expectancy. World Bank Report, Washington, D.C.
14. Diakoulaki, D., Mavrotas, G. & Papayannakis, L. (1995). Determining objective weights in multiple criteria problems: The CRITIC method. Computers & Operations Research, 22(7), 763-770.
15. Eberhardt, M. & Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section dependence in nonstationary panel models: A novel estimator. MPRA Paper No. 17692, 1-26.
16. Fayissa, B. & Gutema, P. (2005). Estimating a health production function for SubSaharan Africa (SSA). Applied Economics, 37(2), 155-164.
17. Gedikli, A., Erdoğan, S., Kırca, M. & Demir, İ. (2019). An analysis of relationship between health expenditures and life expectancy: The case of Turkey and Turkic Republics. Bilig, 91, 27-52.
18. Grossman, M. (1972). On the concept of health capital and the demand for health. The Journal of Political Economy, 80(2), 223-255.
19. Günsoy, G. (2005). İnsani gelişme kavramı ve sağlıklı yaşam hakkı. ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1(2), 35-52.
20. Gürbüz, M. & Karabulut, M. (2008). SSCB’nin Dağılmasıyla Bağımsızlığına Kavuşan Ülkelerde Ortalama Yaşam Süresi ile Sosyo-Ekonomik Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkiler. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), 69-83.
21. Hadri, K. (2000). Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data. The Econometrics Journal, 3, 148-161.
22. Halıcıoğlu, F. (2011). Modelling life expectancy in Turkey. Economic Modelling, 28(5), 2075-2082.
23. Hauck, K., Martin, S. & Smith, P.C. (2016). Priorities for action on the social determinants of health: Empirical evidence on the strongest associations with life expectancy in 54 low-income countries, 1990-2012. Social Science Medicine, 167, 88-98. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2016.08.035.
24. Hurlin, C. & Mignon, V. (2007). Second generation panel unit root tests. Working Papers, halshs-00159842, HAL.
25. Im, K.S., Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
26. Jaba, E., Balan, C.B. & Robu, I.B. (2014). The relationship between life expectancy at birth and health expenditures estimated by a cross-country and time-series analysis. Procedia Economics and Finance, 15, 108-114.
27. Jie, Z., Zhang, J. & Lee, R. (2001). Mortality decline and long run economic growth. Journal of Public Economics, 80(3), 485-507.
28. Kabir, M. (2008). Determinants of life expectancy in developing countries. The Journal of Developing Areas, 41(2), 185-204.
29. Kahreman, Y. (2023). G20 ülkelerinin ekonomik performanslarının 2008 krizi döneminde LOPCOW-COCOSO yöntemi ile değerlendirilmesi. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 38(3), 786-803.
30. Kahreman, Y. (2024). Comparison of economic and social development performance of G10 countries. Turkish Studies - Economy, 19(4), 1333-1351. https://dx.doi.org/10.7827/TurkishStudies.77098
31. Levin, A., Lin, C.F. & Chu, C.S.J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
32. Lichtenberg, F.R. (2002). Sources of U.S. longevity increase, 1960-1997. NBER, Working Paper , No.8755.
33. Linden, M. & Ray, D. (2017). Life expectancy effects of public and private health expenditures in OECD countries 1970-2012: Panel time series approach. Economic Analysis and Policy, 56, 101-113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2017.06.005.
34. Maddala, G.S. & Wu, S. (1999). A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652.
35. McCoskey, S. & Kao, C. (1998). A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data. Econometric Reviews, Vol. 17, No. 1, 57-84.
36. Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. University of Cambridge Working Paper, 0435.
37. Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312.
38. Pesaran, M.H. & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
39. Roffia, P., Bucciol, A. & Hashlamoun, S. (2022). Determinants of life expectancy at birth: a longitudinal study on OECD countries. International Journal of Health Economics and Management, 23(2), 189-212. doi: 10.1007/s10754-022-09338-5.
40. Rogers, G.B. (1979). Income and inequality as determinants of mortality: An international cross-section analysis. Population Studies, 33(3), 343-351.
41. Sede, P. & Ohemeng, W. (2015). Socio-economic determinants of life expectancy in Nigeria (1980-2011). Health Economics Review, 5:2. doi: 10.1186/s13561-014-0037-z.
42. Shang, B. ve Goldman, D. (2007). Does age or life expectancy better predict health care. Health Economics, 17, 487-501.
43. Swamy, P.A. (1970). Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 311-323.
44. Țarcă, V., Țarcă, E. & Moscalu, M. (2024). Social and economic determinants of life expectancy at birth in Eastern Europe. Healthcare (Basel), 12(11), 1148. doi: 10.3390/healthcare12111148.
45. Tıraş, H.H. & Özbek, S. (2020). OECD ülkelerinde doğuşta yaşam beklentisinin belirleyicilerinin ekonometrik analizi. BMIJ, 8(3), 2893-2923.
46. Tıraş, H.H. & Özbek, S. (2021). Doğuşta yaşam beklentisini etkileyen faktörlerin tahmini: E-7 ülkeleri örneği. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 22(2), 145-167.
47. Tüylüoğlu, Ş. & Tekin, M. (2009). Gelir düzeyi ve sağlık harcamalarının beklenen yaşam süresi ve bebek ölüm oranı üzerindeki etkileri. Çukurova Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 13(1), 1-31.
48. van den Heuvel, W. J. & Olaroiu, M. (2017). How important are health care expenditures for life expectancy? A comparative, European analysis. Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, 18(3), P276.E9-276.E12.
49. Wang, J., Jamison, D.T., Bos, E. & Vu, M.T. (1997). Poverty and mortality among the elderly: measurement of performance in 33 countries 1960-92. Tropical Medicine & International Health, 2(10), 1001-1010.
50. Wendling, Z., Emerson, J., Esty, D., Levy, M. & de Sherbinin, A. (2018). Environmental Performance Index (EPI). https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.34995.12328.
51. Westerlund, J. & Edgerton, D.L. (2007). A panel bootstrap cointegration test. Economics Letters, 97, 185-190.
52. Williamson, J.B. & Boehmer, U. (1997). Female life expectancy, gender stratification, and level of economic development: a cross national study of les developed countries. Social Science and Medicine, 45(2), 305-317.
53. Yağış, O. (2024). Doğuşta beklenen yaşam süresi ve ekonomik büyüme: Dalgacık dönüşümlü Fourier Kantil Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi. Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 26(2), 389-410.
54. Yazdani, M., Zarate, P., Zavadskas, E.K. & Turskis, Z. (2019). A combined compromise solution (CoCoSo) method for multi-criteria decision-making problems. Management Decision, 57(9), 2501-2519.