Türkiye’de Mali Sürdürülebilirliğin Doğrusal Olmayan Bir Analizi: MLSTAR Çoklu Lojistik Yumuşak Geçişli Otoregresif Modeli

Yıl 2011, Cilt: 11 Özel Sayı, 41 - 58, 01.11.2011

Özgür Ömer Ersin

Öz

İktisat yazınında mali disiplin yalnız maliye politikaları açısından değil para politikalarının başarısı açısından da merkezi role sahiptir. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de mali baskınlığın test edilmesinde zamanlararası bütçe kısıtı dahilindeki mali serilerde durağanlık testlerinden hareket edilen Hamilton ve Flavin (1986), Hakkio ve Rush (1991) ve Trehan ve Walsh (1988) çalışmalarında vurgulanan test yöntemlerinden farklı olarak doğrusal olmayan Yumuşak Geçişli Otoregresif (STAR) modelinin ikiden fazla rejimin modellenmesine olanak verecek şekilde genelleştirildiği Çoklu Lojistik STAR (MLSTAR) modelinden hareket edilmiştir. MLSTAR modelinin kurulum aşamaları Luukkonnen v.d. (1988)’in temel alınarak geliştirilen Teräsvirta (1994) yaklaşımı çerçevesinde ikiden fazla rejimli modele genelleştirilmiştir. Ampirik kısımda, faiz ödemeleri serisi doğrusal ADF, PP testleri, KPSS birim kök testi ve KSS doğrusal olmayan birim kök testi çerçevesinde durağanlık reddedilirken; ilgili örneklem ve veri seti için tahmin edilen MLSTAR modeli, MSE, MAE ve RMSE hata kriterleri ve Diebold–Mariano eşit tahmin tutarlılığı testi çerçevesinde doğrusal model ve iki rejimli LSTAR modeline karşı kabul edilmiştir. Türkiye’de bütçe politikaları açısından önem taşıyan faiz ödemeleri serilerinde rejimler arası asimetri ve eşik etkilerinin önem taşımasına ek olarak, mali baskınlığın ve kamu borç maliyetlerinin özellikle kriz dönemleri öncesinde mali sürdürülebilirliğin sağlanmasında önemli engel teşkil ettiği sonuçlarına varılmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Doğrusal olmayan zaman serisi, mali disiplin, STAR modelleri

A Nonlinear Analysis of Fiscal Solvency in Turkey: MLSTAR Multi Logistic Smooth

Öz

In economics literature, fiscal discipline is not only important in light of fiscal policy, but, it also deserves a central role in the success of monetary policies. In this study, the methodology to test fiscal dominancy focuses on the nonlinear Multi Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregression model (MLSTAR), which is different than two regime STAR models by allowing modeling fiscal variables with more than two regimes; and also different than the mainstream linear stationarity testing approach of Hamilton and Flavin (1986), Hakkio and Rush (1991) and Trehan and Walsh (1988). For the modeling steps of MLSTAR model, we generalized the two regime STAR type nonlinearity tests proposed among many by Teräsvirta (1994) based on Luukkonnen et al. (1988) in order to model STAR type additive nonlinearity with more than two regimes. In the empirical section, linear stationarity is rejected for interest payments of domestic and foreign debt ratio by ADF, PP and KPSS unit root tests. Futher, nonlinear KSS unit root test suggests a nonlinear unit root in the series. For the sample and variables analyzed, among nonlinear models, MLSTAR model is accepted vis-a-vis the nonlinear LSTAR model in light of forecast accuracy in terms of MSE, MAE, RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. Accordingly, in addition to accepting the threshold effects and asymetric adjustment between regimes in interest payments on debt series, which deserves special attention on the success of budget policies; the fiscal dominance and high costs on the public debt in Turkey put significant burden on the achievement of fiscal solvency especially before and during the economic crises periods

Anahtar Kelimeler

Nonlinear time series, fiscal discipline, STAR models

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