Genişletilmiş Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Modelinde İçsellik Problemi: Panel Kantil Araç Değişken Yaklaşımı

Öz

Çalışmada çevresel Kuznets eğrisi hipotezinin geçerliliği 1995-2010 döneminde İklim Değişikliği Sözleşmesi’nde tanımlanan farklı ülke grupları (Annex II, Non-Annex I, Tüm ülkeler) için toplamsal olmayan sabit etkili panel kantil araç değişken yaklaşımı ile incelenmiştir. Çevresel kirlilik göstergesi olarak kişi başına CO2 emisyonu ve açıklayıcı değişkenler olarak ekonomik gelişmişlik değişkeninin yanı sıra ticaret hacmi, hizmet sektörünün payı, fosil yakıt tüketimi ve kentleşme değişkenleri belirlenerek genişletilmiş çevresel Kuznets eğrisi modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan yaklaşım ile modelde CO2 emisyonu-gelir ve CO2 emisyonu-ticaret arasındaki muhtemel çift yönlü ilişkiler nedeniyle ortaya çıkabilecek içsellik problemi ve panel verinin yapısı nedeniyle ortaya çıkabilecek değişen varyans problemi de dikkate alınmıştır. Dahası, çalışmada kullanılan yaklaşım ile açıklayıcı değişkenlerin CO2 emisyonu üzerindeki heterojen etkileri ülke grupları arasında olduğu gibi ülke grupları içinde de gözlemlenmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular teorik beklentilerle uyumlu olmakla birlikte, çevresel Kuznets eğrisi hipotezi hiçbir ülke grubu için geçerli değildir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Çevresel Kuznets Eğrisi Hipotezi
• İçsellik Problemi
• Panel Kantil Araç Değişken Yaklaşımı
• Toplamsal Olmayan Sabit Etkiler

Endogeneity Problem in Augmented Environmental Kuznets Curve Model: Approach of Panel Quantile with Instrumental Variables

Öz

In this study, the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis was investigated with the approach of panel quantile regression with non-additive fixed effects using instrumental variables for different country groups (Annex II, Non-Annex I, Total) defined in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for the period of 1995-2010. An augmented environmental Kuznets curve model was estimated and, in this model, CO2 emission per capita was determined as an indicator of environmental pollution and besides economic development as well as the trade volume, the share of the service sector, fossil fuel consumption and urbanization variables were taken as explanatory variables. The endogeneity problem that may arise due to possible bilateral relationships between CO2 emission-economic development and CO2 emission-trade and the heteroscedasticity problem because of the structure of the panel data are also taken into consideration with this approach. Moreover, the heterogeneous effects of explanatory variables on CO2 emissions were observed in the country groups as well as within-country groups. Although the findings obtained from the study are consistent with theoretical expectations, the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is not valid for any country group.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Environmental Kuznets Curve
• Endogeneity Problem
• Panel Quantile Regression with Instrumental Variable
• Non-additive Fixed Effects

Kaynakça

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