KÜRESEL LİKİDİTE MİMARİSİNDE TAŞIMA TİCARETİ, EMTİA FİYAT REJİMLERİ VE KURUMSAL KIRILGANLIKLAR

Öz

Bu çalışma, Japonya Merkez Bankası’nın (BoJ) 1990 sonrası ultra gevşek para politikası rejiminin ve 2024–2025 normalleşme adımlarının küresel metal fiyatları üzerindeki etkilerini, JPY taşıma ticareti (carry trade) ve kurumsal kalite ekseninde incelemektedir. Analiz, BoJ’un genişleyici politikalarının JPY’yi yapısal bir fonlama parası haline getirerek küresel likidite döngüsünü nasıl dönüştürdüğünü ve bu sürecte metal fiyatlarının birer kırılganlık göstergesine nasıl evrildiğini ortaya koymaktadır. 2025 metal boğası; para politikası normalleşmesi, kurumsal risk algısı ve jeopolitik belirsizliklerin bileşik bir sonucu olarak değerlendirilmektedir. Bulgular, metal fiyat şoklarının emtia ihracatçısı ekonomilerde kurumsal kapasiteye göre asimetrik kırılganlık örüntüleriyle ilişkilendiğine ve bu kırılganlıkların kurumsal mimariyle tutarlı bir biçimde kümelendiğine işaret etmektedir. Norveç ve Kanada gibi güçlü kurumsal yapıya sahip ülkeler bu süreci bir refah penceresi olarak yönetebilirken, kurumsal zafiyeti yüksek ekonomilerde aynı şoklar finansal istikrarsızlığı tetiklemektedir. Analiz, para politikası normalleşmesinin küresel dağılımsal etkilerini kurumsal mimari üzerinden tartışmaya açmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Taşıma Ticareti
• Asimetrik Şok
• Kurumsal Kalite
• Küresel Likidite Rejimi
• Güvenli Liman

CARRY TRADE, COMMODITY PRICE REGIMES AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAGILITIES IN GLOBAL LIQUIDITY ARCHITECTURE

Öz

This study examines the impact of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) post-1990 ultra-loose monetary policy regime and the 2024–2025 normalization steps on global metal prices, focusing on the JPY carry trade and institutional quality. The analysis investigates how the BoJ’s expansionary policies transformed the global liquidity cycle by establishing the JPY as a structural funding currency, evolving metal prices into vulnerability indicators. The 2025 metal bull market is evaluated as a composite result of monetary normalization, institutional risk perception, and geopolitical uncertainties. Findings indicate that metal price shocks are associated with asymmetric vulnerability patterns in commodity-exporting economies depending on their institutional capacity, and that these patterns cluster in ways consistent with differences in institutional frameworks. While countries with robust institutional structures, such as Norway and Canada, manage this process as a window of opportunity, economies with institutional weaknesses face triggered financial instability. The analysis opens the global distributional effects of monetary policy normalization for discussion through the lens of institutional frameworks.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Carry Trade
• Asymmetric Shock
• Institutional Quality
• Global Liquidity Regime
• Safe Haven

Kaynakça

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