Türkiye’de Ücret Eşitsizliğinin Seyri: Firma Düzeyinde Boyut, Sektör ve Dağılım Temelli bir Ayrıştırma

Öz

Türkiye Girişimcilik Bilgi Sistemi’nden (EIS) elde edilen 2006–2022 dönemine ait eşleştirilmiş işveren–çalışan verilerini kullanarak yapılan bu çalışma, 2006–2017 yılları arasında ücret eşitsizliğinde belirgin bir azalma olduğunu, ardından ise sınırlı bir tersine eğilim gözlendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Firma büyüklüğü ve sektör bazında yapılan varyans ayrıştırmaları, daralmanın esas olarak 250 ve üzeri çalışanı olan büyük ölçekli firmalarda yoğunlaştığını göstermektedir. Özellikle firmalar arası ücret farklarının önemli ölçüde azaldığı imalat sanayii, toplam ücret varyansındaki düşüşün yaklaşık yüzde 70’ini tek başına açıklamaktadır. 2016 yılındaki asgari ücret artışı geçici bir kompresyon etkisi yaratmış olsa dahi uzun dönemli eğilim kısa süreli politika etkilerinden ziyade firmalar arasındaki yapısal yakınsamayı yansıtmaktadır. Dağılımdaki bulgular, üst yarıdaki ücret farkının (P90–P50) belirgin biçimde daraldığını, alt yarıdaki farkın (P50–P10) ise medyan ücretlerdeki daha güçlü artış nedeniyle genişlediğini göstermektedir. Kernel yoğunluk tahminleri, özellikle büyük firmalarda yüksek ücretli çalışanların payının ciddi oranda azalmasıyla birlikte, ücret dağılımının her iki ucundan üst-orta gelir aralığına doğru yapısal bir istihdam kayması olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde, Türkiye’de ücret dağılımında yapısal bir eşitleşmenin gerçekleştiği, ancak son yıllarda bu eğilimin kısmen tersine dönmeye başladığını göstermektedir. Gelecekteki araştırmaların, bu gelişen dinamiklerin arkasında yatan üretkenlik, ücret belirleme süreçleri ve işçi–firma eşleşmesi mekanizmalarının göreli rollerini ayrıştırması gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yüzde Dilimi Dağılımı
• Varyans Ayrıştırması
• Ücret Eşitsizliği

The Evolution of Wage Inequality in Türkiye: Firm-Level Decomposition by Size, Sector, and Distribution

Abstract

Using matched employer–employee data from Türkiye’s Entrepreneurship Information System (EIS) covering 2006–2022, this study documents a broad and sustained decline in wage inequality between 2006 and 2017, driven mainly by shrinking between-firm dispersion among large enterprises, followed by a mild reversal thereafter. Variance decompositions by firm size and sector show that compression was concentrated among firms with 250 or more employees, where inter-firm pay gaps narrowed sharply—particularly in manufacturing, which alone accounts for nearly 70 percent of the total reduction in wage variance. While the 2016 minimum-wage hike temporarily accelerated compression, its effects proved short-lived; the long-term trend reflects structural convergence among firms rather than transitory policy shocks. Distributional evidence shows that the upper-tail gap (P90–P50) narrowed markedly, whereas the lower-tail gap (P50–P10) widened modestly, reflecting stronger wage growth among median earners. Kernel density estimates further reveal a structural reallocation of employment from both tails of the wage distribution toward the upper-middle range—particularly within large firms, where the share of top earners contracted sharply, reinforcing the observed pattern of middle-wage expansion. Collectively, the findings indicate a structural equalization of Türkiye’s wage distribution with recent years showing tentative signs of divergence. Future research should disentangle the roles of productivity, wage-setting, and worker–firm sorting in shaping these evolving patterns.

Keywords

• Percentile Distribution
• Variance Decomposition
• Wage Inequality

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