Financial Deepening, Access, Efficiency, and Risk as Determinants of Economic Growth Volatility: Regional Evidence from Türkiye

Öz

The main objective of this study is to empirically analyze the effects of financial system dynamics (financial deepening, access, efficiency, and risk) in Türkiye on regional economic growth volatility. In this study, Panel ARDL (Pooled Mean Group) estimator and Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality analyses were applied using annual data from 81 provinces in Türkiye for the period 2007-2024. The findings indicate that financial system dynamics have effects on macroeconomic stability in different ways. According to long-term findings, per capita deposits and bank branch network, representing financial access, statistically significantly reduce growth volatility. Conversely, it was found that an increase in per capita credit volume increases regional growth volatility. Another important finding of the study is the bidirectional causal relationship between the non-performing loan ratio, representing financial risk, and growth volatility. This interaction shows that economic contraction increases non-performing loans, and increased risks fuel macroeconomic volatility. The results indicate that focusing solely on credit expansion is insufficient for achieving regional economic stability; Instead, it suggests that holistic policies should be developed based on expanding access to finance, maintaining credit quality, and allocating resources efficiently.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic Growth Volatility
• Financial Deepening
• Financial Access
• Financial Efficiency
• Financial Risk

Ekonomik Büyüme Oynaklığının Belirleyicileri Olarak Finansal Derinleşme, Erişim, Etkinlik ve Risk: Türkiye’den Bölgesel Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı, Türkiye’de finansal sistem dinamiklerinin (finansal derinleşme, erişim, etkinlik ve risk) bölgesel ekonomik büyüme oynaklığı üzerindeki etkilerini ampirik bir çerçevede analiz etmektedir. Araştırma kapsamında, Türkiye'deki 81 ilin 2007-2024 dönemi yıllık verileri kullanılarak Panel ARDL (Havuzlanmış Ortalama Grup) tahmincisi ve Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik analizleri uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, finansal sistem dinamiklerinin makroekonomik istikrar üzerinde farklı yönlerde etkilere sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Uzun dönem bulgularına göre, kişi başı mevduat ve finansal erişimi temsil eden banka şube ağı büyüme oynaklığını istatistiksel olarak anlamlı düzeyde azaltmaktadır. Buna karşın, kişi başı kredi hacmindeki artışın bölgesel büyüme oynaklığını artırdığı tespit edilmiştir. Çalışmanın bir diğer önemli bulgusu ise, finansal riski temsil eden takipteki alacaklar oranı ile büyüme oynaklığı arasında saptanan çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisidir. Bu etkileşim, ekonomik daralmanın takipteki alacakları artırdığını ve artan risklerin makroekonomik oynaklığı beslediğini göstermektedir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, bölgesel ekonomik istikrarın sağlanmasında sadece kredi genişlemesine odaklanılmasının yeterli olmadığını; bunun yerine finansal erişimin tabana yayılmasına, kredi kalitesinin korunmasına ve kaynakların etkin tahsisine dayalı bütüncül politikaların geliştirilmesi gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik Büyüme Oynaklığı
• Finansal Derinleşme
• Finansal Erişim
• Finansal Etkinlik
• Finansal Risk

Kaynakça

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