THE IMPACT OF TRADE GLOBALIZATION ON INCOME DISTRIBUTION

Öz

This study aims to empirically examine the effects of trade globalization on income distribution. A balanced panel dataset covering 59 countries for the period 2007–2020 is employed. The Gini coefficient is used to represent income inequality, while trade openness (TicK) serves as a proxy for trade globalization. Informal economy share (KayD) and tax burden (VerY) are included in the model as control variables. Prior to the estimation, the existence of unit and time effects in the panel dataset is tested, revealing that only unit effects are statistically significant. Based on the Hausman test, the fixed effects estimator is chosen. As the assumptions of no autocorrelation, homoskedasticity, and cross-sectional independence are violated, the Driscoll–Kraay estimator, which is robust to these problems, is applied.The findings indicate that trade openness has a positive and statistically significant effect on income inequality. The effect of the informal economy is stronger, while the tax burden appears statistically insignificant. These results are partially consistent with studies such as Dreher (2006) and Dollar and Kraay (2002).

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trade Globalization
• Income Distribution
• Panel Data Analysis
• Driscoll–Kraay
• Informal Economy.

TİCARİ KÜRESELLEŞMENİN GELİR DAĞILIMI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, ticari küreselleşmenin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkilerini ampirik olarak incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışmada, 2007–2020 dönemini kapsayan ve 59 ülkeden oluşan dengeli bir panel veri seti kullanılmıştır. Gelir eşitsizliğini temsilen Gini katsayısı, ticari küreselleşmeyi temsilen ticari açıklık oranı (TicK) kullanılmış; kayıt dışı ekonomi oranı (KayD) ve vergi yükü (VerY) ise kontrol değişkenleri olarak modele dâhil edilmiştir. Panel veri analizine geçmeden önce, veri setinde birim ve zaman etkilerinin varlığı test edilmiş ve yalnızca birim etkilerinin anlamlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Hausman testi sonucuna göre sabit etkiler tahmincisi tercih edilmiştir. Ayrıca, otokorelasyon, değişen varyans ve yatay kesit bağımlılığına ilişkin istikrar koşullarının ihlal edildiği anlaşılmış ve bu nedenle analizde Driscoll–Kraay tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgulara göre ticari açıklık oranı, gelir eşitsizliği üzerinde pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkiye sahiptir. Kayıt dışı ekonominin etkisi ise daha güçlüdür. Vergi yükü değişkeninin istatistiki açıdan anlamlı bir etkisi bulunamamıştır. Bu sonuçlar, Dreher (2006) ve Dollar ve Kraay (2002) gibi çalışmalarla kısmen uyumludur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ticari Küreselleşme
• Gelir Dağılımı
• Panel Veri Analizi
• Driscoll–Kraay
• Kayıt Dışı Ekonomi.

Kaynakça

1. Abounoori, A., & Zivari Masoud, S. (2015). The analysis of tax revenues effect on economic growth and income distribution (In Iran and selected OECD countries). Journal of Tax Research, 22(24).
2. Abounoori, E., & Zivari Masoud, S. (2015). Globalization and income inequality: Evidence from different income groups. Economic Modelling, 45, 547–556.
3. Akalin, G., & Yaşar, E. (2020). Servet bileşenlerinin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisi. XIV. IBANESS İktisat, İşletme ve Yönetim Bilimleri Kongreler Serisi-Plovdiv/Bulgaria, 26-27 Eylül.
4. Asteriou, D., Dimelis, S. P., & Moudatsou, A. (2014). Globalization and income inequality: A panel data econometric approach for the EU27 countries. Economic Modelling, 30, 592-599.
5. Atif, S. M., Srivastav, M., Sauytbekova, M., & Arachchige, U. K. (2012). Globalization and income inequality: A panel data analysis of 68 countries (MPRA Paper No. 42385). Munich Personal Repec Archive.
6. Balan, F., Doytch, N., Upadhyaya, K., & Pacheco, G. (2015). The impact of globalization and financialization on income inequality: Evidence from G7 countries. International Review of Economics & Finance, 38, 951–964.
7. Balan, F., Torun, M., & Kilic, C. (2015). Globalization and income inequality in G7: A bootstrap panel Granger causality analysis. International Journal of Economics and Finance, 7(3), 192–203. https://doi.org/10.5539/ijef.v7n3p192
8. Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data (3rd ed.). John Wiley & Sons.

9. Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometrics. Springer.
10. Brüderl, J., & Ludwig, V. (2015). Fixed-effects panel regression. In H. Best & C. Wolf (Eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Regression Analysis and Causal Inference (pp. 328–357). SAGE.
11. Cabral, R., García-Díaz, R., & Mollick, A. (2016). Does globalization affect top income inequality? Journal of Policy Modeling, 38(5), 916–940.
12. Çifçi, İ., Uzgören, E., & Özbek, R. İ. (2018). Gümrük birliği anlaşması Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliği’ne yakınsamasını sağladı mı?. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(4), 106-128.
13. Dabla-Norris, E., Kochhar, K., Suphaphiphat, N., Ricka, F., & Tsounta, E. (2015). Causes and consequences of income inequality: A global perspective (IMF Staff Discussion Note No. SDN/15/13). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2016/12/31/Causes-and-Consequences-of-Income-Inequality-A-Global-Perspective-42986 (Erişim Tarihi: 01.04.2025)
14. Danışoğlu, A. Ç. (2004). Küreselleşmenin gelir eşitsizliği ve yoksulluk üzerindeki etkileri. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Dergisi, 3(5), 215–239.
15. De Hoyos, R. E., & Sarafidis, V. (2006). Testing for cross-sectional dependence in panel-data models. The Stata Journal, 6(4), 482–496.
16. Demir, D. (2025). Gelir eşitsizliği, serbest ticaret ve gıda güvencesi arasında nasıl bir ilişki var? orta ve düşük gelirli ülkeler için bir panel nedensellik analizi. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 10(1), 234-251.
17. Doğruel, A., & Acar, S. (2012). The effects of openness and foreign direct investment on income inequality: Evidence from MENA countries. Middle Eastern Studies, 48(1), 89–108.
18. Doğruel, F., & Acar, S. (2012). Wage inequality and openness in MENA countries. Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 14(1), 1–29.
19. Dollar, D., & Kraay, A. (2002). Growth is good for the poor. Journal of Economic Growth, 7(3), 195–225.
20. Dorn, F., Fuest, C., Potrafke, N., & Schmitt, C. (2018). Globalization and income inequality revisited. Oxford Economic Papers, 70(3), 662–687.
21. Dreher, A. (2006). Does globalization affect growth? Evidence from a new index of globalization. Applied Economics, 38(10), 1091–1110.
22. Dreher, A., & Gaston, N. (2008). Has globalization increased inequality? Review of International Economics, 16(3), 516–536.
23. Furceri, D., Loungani, P., & Ostry, J. (2018). The aggregate and distributional effects of financial globalization: Evidence from macro and sectoral data. Microeconomics: Welfare Economics & Collective Decision-Making eJournal, 10(1), 1–30.
24. Galbraith, J. K., & Halbach, B. (2016). A comparison of top income shares and global inequality datasets. The University of Texas Inequality Project, Working Paper No: 73.
25. Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric analysis (5th ed.). Prentice Hall.
26. Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2018). Temel ekonometri (5. baskı). İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
27. Gür, B. (2021). Ticari dışa açıklık ve enflasyon ilişkisi: BRICS-T ülkeleri için Romer hipotezinin sınanması. International Journal of Applied Economic and Finance Studies, 6(1), 35–45.
28. Hayaloğlu, P., Kalaycı, C., & Artan, S. (2015). Küreselleşme farklı gelir grubundaki ülkelerde ekonomik büyümeyi nasıl etkilemektedir. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(1), 119–152.
29. Heckscher, E. F. (1919). The effects of foreign trade on the distribution of income. Ekonomisk Tidskrift. (Çevirisi için bkz. Baldwin, R. E. (Ed.). (1969). Readings in international trade: A historical perspective. University of Chicago Press.)
30. Heimberger, P. (2020). Does economic globalisation affect income inequality? A meta-analysis. The World Economy, 43(11), 2960–2982.
31. Hoechle, D. (2007). Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence. The Stata Journal, 7(3), 281–312.
32. Hsiao, C. (2003). Analysis of panel data (2nd ed.). Cambridge University Press.
33. Jaumotte, F., Lall, S., & Papageorgiou, C. (2008). Rising income inequality: Technology, or trade and financial globalization? IMF Economic Review, 55(2), 271–309.
34. Kalyoncu, M. (2025). Globalization and income inequality: A descriptive analysis based on KOF index and Gini coefficient averages. Economic Studies Journal, 12(1), 77–92.
35. Kalyoncu, S. (2025). Küreselleşmenin gelir dağılımı adaleti üzerindeki rolü. Journal of Economics, Finance and Sustainability, 3(1), 62–84.
36. Khan, H., Shehzad, C. T., & Ahmad, F. (2019). Temporal effects of financial globalization on income inequality. Comparative Political Economy eJournal, 11(4), 1–25.
37. Licong, C., Lin, Y., & Zhou, P. (2023). Economic globalization and income inequality: A meta-analysis approach. Journal of Economic Surveys, 37(2), 321–343.
38. Licong, H., Hui, Y., & Bhaumik, A. (2023). Economic globalization and income inequality. International Journal on Recent Trends in Business and Tourism (IJRTBT), 7(3), 108–117.
39. Mah, J. S. (2013). Globalization, decentralization, and income inequality: The case of China. Applied Economics Letters, 20(11), 1067–1070.
40. Meschi, E., & Vivarelli, M. (2009). Trade and income inequality in developing countries. World Development, 37(2), 287–302.
41. Milanovic, B. (2005). Can we discern the effect of globalization on income distribution? Evidence from household surveys. The World Bank Economic Review, 19(1), 21–44.
42. Munir, K., & Bukhari, M. (2019). Impact of globalization on income inequality in Asian emerging economies. International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 39(5/6), 419–436.
43. Ohlin, B. (1933). Interregional and international trade. Harvard University Press.
44. Osode, O. C., Ogunleye, E. K., & Oni, L. B. (2020). Institutional quality, globalization and income inequality in developing economies. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 23(4), 367–382.
45. Osode, O. E., Iheonu, C. O., & Dauda, R. (2022). On the relationship between globalization and income inequality: Does institution matter? Journal of Public Affairs, 22(2), e2433. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2433
46. Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. CESifo Working Paper Series No. 1229.
47. Roy-Mukherjee, S., & Udeogu, E. (2021). Globalization and income inequality in OECD and Balkan countries: An FGLS approach. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54(5), 1041–1062.
48. Roy-Mukherjee, S., & Udeogu, E. (2021). Neo-liberal globalization and income inequality: Panel data evidence from OECD and Western Balkan countries. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 23(1), 15–39. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2020.1836380
49. Samimi, A. J., Ghaderi, S., Hosseinzadeh, R., & Nademi, Y. (2012). Openness and inflation: New empirical panel data evidence. Economics Letters, 117(3), 573–577.
50. Sevüktekin, M. (1989), Ekonometrik araştırmalarda verilerin kullanılması. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 10(1-2), 117-127.
51. Sevüktekin, M. (2014). Panel veri analizi. Ankara: Nobel Yayıncılık.
52. Shakil, A., & Imran, K. (2022). The impact of globalization, foreign direct investment and trade openness on poverty: A case study of Pakistan. Economic Consultant, (1(37)), 41–60.
53. Solt, F. (2009). Standardizing the World Income Inequality Database. Social Science Quarterly, 90(2), 231–242.
54. Springholz, F. (2018). Globalization and inequality: A panel data analysis. Empirical Economics, 55(3), 1223–1245.
55. Standardized World Income Inequality Database (SWIID 8-9) (2025). https://dataverse.harvard.edu (Erişim Tarihi:05.04.2025).
56. Şimşek, D., & Hepaktan, C. E. (2019). Ticari açıklık, istihdam ve enflasyon ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. Manisa Celal Bayar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 17(4), 316–336.
57. Tabash, M., Elsantil, Y. G., Hamadi, A., & Drachal, K. (2024). Globalization and income inequality in developing economies: A comprehensive analysis. Economies, 12(1), 1–20.
58. Tatoğlu, F. Y. (2020). Panel veri ekonometrisi (3. baskı). Beta Yayıncılık.
59. Todaro, M. P & Smith, S. C. (2012). “Economic Development”11th Edition: Poverty, Inequality, and Development, s. 202-265.
60. Wei, S.J. & Wu, Y. (2001). Globalization and Inequality: Evidence from within China. NBER Working Paper No. w8611, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=291286
61. White, H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator. Econometrica, 48(4), 817–838.
62. World Bank (2025). https://data.worldbank.org (Erişim Tarihi:05.04.2025).
63. Yaşar, E. & Korkmaz, İ. (2017). Analysis of foreign trade between Turkey and the Balkan countries with gravity model. Kesit Akademi Dergisi, 3(10), 382-407.
64. Yaşar, E. (2020). The impact of globalization on economic development: A panel data analysis. In book: (Ed. Erdoğan, S. & Akalin, G.), Different Aspects of Economic Development, Publisher: Nobel Bilimsel Eserler.
65. Yaşar, E., & Küpcü, O. (2020). Reel döviz kurunun firmaların ihracat performansına etkisi: Farklı sektörlerdeki firmalar üzerine ampirik bir inceleme. Balkan and Near Eastern Journal of Social Sciences, 6(3), 67-78.