THE IMPACT OF THE CURRENCY PROTECTED DEPOSIT POLICY ON THE GROWTH PERFORMANCE OF THE BANKING SECTOR: AN ANALYSIS OF THE 2019-2024 PERIOD

Öz

The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the Currency Protected Deposit (KKM) policy on the growth performance of the Turkish banking sector. For this purpose, the growth rates of loans, assets, deposits, equity, net interest income, non-interest income, and net profit in the pre-KKM period (2019–2021) and post-KKM period (2022–2024) were compared. Initially, based on the distributional characteristics of the variables, both parametric (T-Test) and non-parametric (Mann–Whitney U Test) methods were applied. In addition, the Difference-in-Differences (DiD) method was employed to evaluate the causal impact of the policy in a more robust econometric framework. The results from classical statistical tests revealed significant increases in loan, deposit, net profit, and net interest income growth rates during the post-KKM period. These findings suggest that the KKM policy created short-term positive effects on banks’ funding capacity, lending activities, and profitability. However, regression results obtained from the DiD method indicate that the KKM policy had a statistically significant and positive effect only on deposit and equity growth rates, while its effects on loans, net profit, and interest income growth were not statistically significant. This divergence implies that the effects of the KKM policy vary across growth indicators and may remain limited in some areas.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Banking Sector
• Currency Protected Deposits
• T-Test
• Mann–Whitney U Test
• Difference-in-Differences (DiD)

KUR KORUMALI MEVDUAT POLİTİKASININ BANKACILIK SEKTÖRÜNÜN BÜYÜME PERFORMANSI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: 2019-2024 DÖNEMİ ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de Kur Korumalı Mevduat (KKM) politikasının bankacılık sektörünün büyüme performansı üzerindeki etkisinin analiz edilmesidir. Bu doğrultuda, KKM öncesi dönem (2019-2021) ile KKM sonrası dönem (2022-2024) kredi, aktif, mevduat, özkaynak, net faiz geliri, faiz dışı gelir ve net kâr büyüme oranları açısından karşılaştırılmıştır. Öncelikle, değişkenlerin dağılım özelliklerine göre parametrik (T-Testi) ve parametrik olmayan (Mann-Whitney U) testler uygulanmıştır. Bununla birlikte, politika etkisinin daha sağlam bir nedensellik çerçevesinde analiz edilebilmesi amacıyla Farkların-Farkı (Difference-in-Difference, DiD) yöntemi de kullanılmıştır. Gerçekleştirilen analizler sonucunda, klasik istatistiksel testler KKM sonrası dönemde kredi, mevduat, net kâr ve net faiz geliri büyüme oranlarında anlamlı artışlar olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Bu sonuçlar, KKM uygulamasının bankaların fon toplama gücü, kredi verme kapasitesi ve kârlılığı üzerinde kısa vadeli pozitif etkiler yarattığını göstermektedir. Ancak DiD yöntemiyle yapılan regresyon analizleri, yalnızca mevduat ve özkaynak büyüme oranlarında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif etki tespit etmiş; kredi, net kâr ve faiz gelirleri üzerindeki etkileri ise anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Bu durum, KKM uygulamasının etkilerinin büyüme göstergeleri arasında farklılaştığını ve bazı alanlarda sınırlı kalabildiğini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bankacılık Sektörü
• Kur Korumalı Mevduat
• T-Testi
• Mann-Whitney U Testi
• Difference-in-Differences (DiD)

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