Enerji İthalat Bağımlılığı, Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı ve İhracat Performansı: Türkiye ve OECD Ülkeleri Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi

Öz

Küresel ticaret hacminin genişlemesiyle birlikte ülkelerin dış ticaret performansları; enerji arz güvenliği ve finansal piyasa istikrarı gibi makroekonomik dinamiklerden giderek daha fazla etkilenmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, enerji ithalat bağımlılığı ve döviz kuru oynaklığının ihracat performansı üzerindeki etkilerini Türkiye ve Ekonomik Kalkınma ve İş Birliği Örgütü ülkeleri kapsamında karşılaştırmalı olarak incelemektir. Çalışmada 2000-2024 dönemine ait yıllık panel veri seti kullanılmış; ihracat performansı, enerji ithalat bağımlılığı, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar, gayrisafi yurt içi hasıla, reel efektif döviz kuru ve kur oynaklığı değişkenleriyle modellenmiştir. Yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve eğim heterojenliği dikkate alınarak CIPS birim kök testi, Westerlund panel eşbütünleşme testi, Driscoll-Kraay dirençli standart hatalar, Mean Group tahmincisi ve Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Bulgular, ekonomik büyüklüğün ihracatın temel belirleyicisi olduğunu; reel kur ve kur oynaklığının ihracat üzerinde negatif etki yarattığını göstermektedir. OECD genelinde enerji ithalat bağımlılığı ihracatı destekleyen bir girdi niteliği taşırken, Türkiye’de maliyet baskısı oluşturarak ihracat performansını sınırlamaktadır. Sonuç olarak, sürdürülebilir ihracat artışı için enerji ithalat bağımlılığını azaltan, enerji verimliliğini artıran ve kur oynaklığını sınırlayan yapısal politikalara ihtiyaç bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İhracat Performansı
• Enerji İthalat Bağımlılığı
• Döviz Kuru Oynaklığı
• Panel Veri Analizi
• OECD ve Türkiye

Energy Import Dependency, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Export Performance: A Panel Data Analysis on Türkiye and OECD Countries

Öz

With the expansion of global trade volume, countries’ foreign trade performance is increasingly affected by macroeconomic dynamics such as energy supply security and financial market stability. This study aims to comparatively examine the effects of energy import dependency and exchange rate volatility on export performance in Türkiye and the countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The study uses an annual panel dataset covering the 2000–2024 period. Export performance is modeled through energy import dependency, foreign direct investment, gross domestic product, the real effective exchange rate, and exchange rate volatility. To account for cross-sectional dependence and slope heterogeneity, the CIPS panel unit root test, Westerlund panel cointegration test, Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors, Mean Group estimator, and Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test are applied. The findings demonstrate that economic size is the main determinant of exports, while the real exchange rate and exchange rate volatility negatively affect export performance. While energy import dependency generally functions as an input supporting exports across OECD countries, it limits export performance in Türkiye by creating cost pressure. Consequently, sustainable export growth requires structural policies that reduce energy import dependency, enhance energy efficiency, and limit exchange rate volatility.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Export Performance
• Energy Import Dependency
• Exchange Rate Volatility
• Panel Data Analysis
• OECD and Turkey

Kaynakça

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