Entangling Alliances and Entrapment in the Middle East: Israel-Iran War

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 15 Sayı: 1 , 399 - 418 , 31.03.2026

Abdullah Erboğa

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1825478

https://izlik.org/JA63DK99DA

Öz

This study focuses on the concepts of entanglement and entrapment, and attempts to analyze the behavior of the super/great powers allied with the parties involved in the Israel-Iran War (2025). The research question of the study is: why did the US face the threat of entrapment by siding with its ally Israel, while Russia did not enter the war despite its alliance with Iran? It is crucial to reveal how the risks of entanglement and entrapment arise in alliance relations and how states respond when faced with these risks. In Middle Eastern alliance politics, the commitments of great powers to their allies influence the stability and instability of the region. Explaining the stance of the super/great powers in the Israel-Iran War will both reveal the extent of the systemic impact in the Middle East and help understand the causes of entanglement and entrapment in alliances. In addition, process tracing and case analysis, which are frequently used in qualitative research, were used in the study. It is important to note that the U.S., which has adopted an isolationist grand strategy, has been forced to entrap itself in war due to its entangling alliances with Israel. However, Russia, which has avoided defense commitments towards Iran, appears not to be being entrapped in war. This article attempts to explain the entrapment of states into war through the variables of polarity and alliance commitments. In conclusion, the study finds that structural conditions and the legal basis of alliances are decisive in the entrapment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Entangling Alliances , Entrapment , U.S. , Russia , Israel-Iran War.

Orta Doğu’da Karmaşık İttifaklar ve Sürüklenme: İsrail-İran Savaşı

https://izlik.org/JA63DK99DA

Öz

Bu çalışma, birbirine dolanan karmaşık ittifak ilişkilerinin (entanglement) ve savaşa sürüklenme (entrapment) riskinin nedenlerini inceleyerek İsrail-İran savaşında (2025) tarafların müttefikleri olan büyük güçlerin davranışlarını açıklamaya çalışmaktadır. Çalışmanın araştırma sorusu şudur: neden ABD, 2025 Haziran’ında müttefiki İsrail’in yanında yer alarak savaşa sürüklenirken, Rusya müttefiki İran’ın peşinden savaşa dahil olmadı?  İttifak ilişkilerinde karmaşıklık ve sürüklenme riskinin nasıl meydana geldiği ve devletlerin bu risklerle karşılaştığında nasıl davrandıklarının ortaya konulması ittifak teorilerinde sıkça tartışılan bir konu olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Özellikle büyük güçler ve zayıf devletler arasındaki ittifak ilişkileri üzerinde geniş bir literatür bulunmaktadır. Devletlerin ittifak siyasetlerine dair en sık çalışılan alanlardan birisi de şüphesiz Orta Doğu’dur. Orta Doğu ittifak politikalarında büyük güçlerin müttefiklerine olan taahhütlerinin bölgenin istikrar ve istikrarsızlığını doğrudan etkilediğini belirtmek gerekir. İsrail ve İran arasında Haziran 2025’te yaşanan ve on iki gün süren savaşta büyük güçlerin tutumunu açıklamak bir yandan Orta Doğu’daki sistemik etkinin boyutunu ortaya koymaya diğer taraftan ittifaklardaki karmaşıklığın ve sürüklenmenin sebeplerini anlamaya yardımcı olacaktır. Bununla birlikte çalışmada nitel araştırmalarda sıkça kullanılan süreç takibi ve vaka analizi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Son dönemde İzolasyonist grand stratejiye yönelmesine rağmen ABD, İsrail ile karmaşık ittifakı nedeniyle savaşa sürüklenirken, İran’a yönelik savunma taahhütlerinden kaçınan Rusya’nın savaşa sürüklenmediği görülmektedir. Bu çalışma, kutupluluk ve yükümlülük değişkenleri üzerinden devletlerin savaşa sürüklenmelerini açıklamaya çalışmaktadır. Uluslararası sistemin tek kutuplu, çift kutuplu ve çok kutuplu yapısının ittifak ortaklarının müttefiklerine yaklaşımlarını nasıl etkilediği ve böylelikle İsrail-İran savaşında tarafların müttefikleri olan ABD ve Rusya’nın savaşa neden dahil olup olmadıkları izah edilecektir. Neticede uluslararası sistemin yapısal şartlarının ve ittifak yükümlülüklerinin savaşa sürüklenmede belirleyici oldukları bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Karmaşık İttifaklar , Sürüklenme , ABD , Rusya , İsrail-İran Savaşı.

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