COBB-DOUGLAS ANALOJİSİ İLE ANTEP FISTIĞI ÜRETİMİNİN YAŞAM DÖNGÜSÜ ENVANTER VERİLERİNİN ANALİZİ VE ARIMA MODELİ İLE TAHMİNİ

Öz

Antep fıstığı üretimi Türkiye için önemli bir ekonomik değerdir. Bu çalışmada, Cobb-Douglas üretim fonksiyonu kullanılarak Antep fıstığı üretiminin yaşam döngüsü envanteri (LCI) verileri analiz edilmiş ve insan emeği, makine, dizel yakıt, gübreler, kimyasallar ve hayvan gübresi girdileri ile Antep fıstığı üretim verileri arasındaki ilişkiyi anlamak için Cobb-Douglas fonksiyonundan yararlanılmıştır. Yaşam döngüsü değerlendirmesi (LCA), girdilerin Antep fıstığı üretim verimi üzerindeki etkilerinin kapsamlı olarak değerlendirmesine olanak sağlamıştır. Bununla beraber, 1961 ile 2022 yılları arasındaki yıllık Antep fıstığı üretim verileri kullanılarak zaman serisi analizine dayalı olarak 2023-2030 dönemi için Antep fıstığı üretimini tahmin etmek amacıyla ARIMA modeli kullanılmıştır. ARIMA modeli, Antep fıstığı üretiminin 2030 yılına kadar 270000 tonun üzerine çıkmasının beklendiğini ortaya koymuştur. Bu çalışmada elde edilen sonuçların Antep fıstığı üreticilerine ve politika belirleyicilere sürdürülebilir Antep fıstığı üretimi için karar almada rehberlik etmesi beklenmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Antep fıstığı
• Yaşam döngüsü analizi
• Cobb-Douglas fonksiyonu
• ARIMA modeli

Analysis of Life Cycle Inventory Data of Pistachio Production through Cobb-Douglas Analogy and Forecasting with ARIMA Model

Öz

Pistachio production holds significant economic importance for Türkiye. This study analyzes the life cycle inventory (LCI) data of pistachio production by using the Cobb-Douglas production function, and utilizes the Cobb-Douglas function to examine the relationship between inputs (human labor, machinery, diesel fuel, fertilizers, chemicals and manure) and pistachio production output. Fertilizers and diesel fuel are recognized as the two most energy-intensive inputs, accounting for 65.3% of total energy use. Total energy input for pistachio production yields a value of 24583.34 MJ ha-1. The regression analysis indicates high R² values of 0.9998 for the first set of variables (human labor, machinery and diesel fuel) and 0.9763 for the second set (fertilizers, chemicals and manure), demonstrating a very strong correlation between the inputs and pistachio output, and the Cobb-Douglas production function fits the data extremely well. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is employed to forecast pistachio production for the period 2023-2030, using annual pistachio production data from 1961 to 2022. The ARIMA(1, 2, 2) model is identified as the most suitable model for forecasting pistachio production in Türkiye, based on its optimal statistical performance. Forecasted pistachio production values generated using the ARIMA(1, 2, 2) model are in good agreement with historical trends for the pistachio production. The ARIMA(1, 2, 2) model predicts that pistachio production will exceed 270000 tons by 2030. The results of this study are expected to provide a guidance to pistachio producers and policymakers in making decisions for sustainable pistachio production.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Pistachio
• Life cycle inventory data analysis
• Cobb-Douglas function
• ARIMA model

Kaynakça

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