DAHA AZ DENEME GERÇEKLEŞTİRMEK MÜMKÜN MÜ: BAYESIAN YAKLAŞIMLA YÜKSEK BASINÇ İŞLEMLERİ İÇİN BAKTERİYEL HAYATTA KALMA/ÖLÜM OLASILIĞININ TAHMİNİ?

Öz

Mevcut çalışmada, farklı koşullar altında yüksek hidrostatik basınç işlemine tabi tutulan bakterilerin hayatta kalma/ölüm olasılığını tahmin etmek için Bayesian Logistic Regression'a (BLR) dayalı bir model geliştirilmiştir. Bu amaçla Listeria monocytogenes (fosfatla tamponlanmış tuzlu su çözeltisi içinde) ve Cronobacter sakazakii (triptik soya broth ve bebek maması formülasyonu) bakterileri için daha önce yayımlanmış verilerden faydalanılmış olup, proses değişkenleri basınç, sıcaklık, ortamın pH değeri, ilk aşılama ve işlem süresidir. BLR kullanım olasılığının yanı sıra, veri bölme oranları değiştirilerek örneklem büyüklüğünün ve verilerdeki vaka sıklığının etkileri değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak BLR model tahminlerinin hem deneysel verilerle hem de frekansçı lojistik regresyon modelleriyle tutarlı olduğu gözlenmiştir. Örneklem boyutu küçüldükçe bazı aşırı uyum sorunları ortaya çıksa da, BLR, frekansçı yaklaşımının gerektirdiğinden daha az sayıda deneysel veriye ile (yaklaşık 50 deneysel örnek) güvenilir olasılık modelleri üretebilmektedir. Dahası BLR, nokta tahminleri yerine parametreler ve kestirimler için sonsal dağılımlar sunmaktadır. Bu nedenle mevcut çalışmada, BLR'nin frekansçı yaklaşıma göre daha az deneysel veri gereksinimiyle mikroorganizmaların uygulanan yüksek basınç işlemlerinden sonra hayatta kalma/ölme olasılık kestirimleri için yararlı bir araç olabileceği, eksik gözlemleri ve dengesiz veri setlerini yönetme kabiliyetine sahip olduğu gösterilmiştir. Bu sonuçların ışığında, BLR yaklaşımına uygun yeni deneme tasarımları ile, deneysel çalışmalarda zamandan ve maliyetten tasarruf sağlanması ve gıda endüstrisi için daha ayrıntılı güvenlik riski değerlendirmesi mümkün olabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yüksek hidrostatik basınç
• Öngörücü mikrobiyoloji
• Lojistik regresyon
• Listeria monocytogenes
• Cronobacter sakazakii

IS IT POSSIBLE TO MAKE FEWER EXPERIMENTS: PREDICTION OF BACTERIAL SURVIVAL/DEATH PROBABILITY FOR HIGH-PRESSURE PROCESSING WITH THE BAYESIAN APPROACH?

Öz

In the present study, a model based on Bayesian Logistic Regression (BLR) was developed to predict the probability of bacterial survival/death treated with high-hydrostatic pressure under different conditions. Previously published data for Listeria monocytogenes in phosphate-buffered saline and Cronobacter sakazakii in trypticase soy broth and infant formula were used where the process variables were pressure, temperature, medium pH, initial inoculum and processing time. Along with the using possibility of BLR, effects of introduced sampling size by changing data split ratio and case prevalence were assessed. The BLR model predictions were consistent with both experimental data and the frequentist logistic regression models. Although some overfitting problems arise as the sampling size decrease, BLR can produce reliable probability models with a smaller number of experimental data (about 50 experimental samples) than the frequentist approach requires. Moreover, instead of a point estimate, BLR offers a posterior distribution for parameters and predictions. So the present study has indicated that BLR can be a useful tool to describe the survival/death of microorganisms after high-pressure processes with less experimental data requirement than the frequentist approach and also with the ability to handle missing observation and imbalanced dataset. In the light of these outcomes, the design of new experiments according to BLR, save on time and costs for experimental studies and more detailed safety risk assessment may be feasible for the food industry.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• High hydrostatic pressure
• Predictive microbiology
• Logistic regression
• Listeria monocytogenes
• Cronobacter sakazakii

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