THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND TRADE OPENNESS: THE CASE OF SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION COUNTRIES

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 25, 393 - 416, 29.06.2022

Hamza Çeştepe Bersu Bahtiyar

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2022.017

Öz

This paper aims to analyze the relationship between energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth for the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that have started to follow open foreign trade policies with the transition to market economy since the early 1990s. The study examines validity and aspect of the relationship between variables for the eight countries studied covering the period of 1990-2018 by using panel causality, panel cointegration and panel vector error correction model methods. According to the results of the study, there is a causal relationship among three variables mentioned. While there is a bidirectional causality between economic growth and trade openness and economic growth and energy consumption; there is unilateral causality between energy consumption and trade openness from trade openness to energy consumption. The results support long-term equilibrium among the variables, but the direction and validity of the relationship are different in the short term. Therefore, periodic differences need to be taken into consideration when determining the energy policies that will be implemented in the economic growth process by these countries’ policymakers.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic growth, energy consumption, Shanghai cooperation organization

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH, ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND TRADE OPENNESS: THE CASE OF SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION COUNTRIES

Öz

Bu çalışmada, çoğu 1990’ların başından itibaren piyasa ekonomisine geçişle birlikte dışa açık ticaret politikaları izlemeye başlayan Şanghay İşbirliği Örgütü ülkeleri için enerji tüketimi, ticari açıklık ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki dinamik ilişkinin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. 1990-2018 dönemini kapsayan çalışmada panel nedensellik, panel eşbütünleşme ve panel vektör hata düzeltme modeli yöntemi kullanılarak, çalışmaya konu olan sekiz ülke için değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin geçerliliği ve yönü incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, söz konusu üç değişken arasında nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Ekonomik büyüme ve ticari açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme ve enerji tüketimi arasında çift yönlü bir nedensellik varken; enerji tüketimi ve ticari açıklık arasında yalnızca ticari açıklıktan enerji tüketimine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Sonuçlar, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemde dengenin varlığını desteklemekte, ilişkinin yönü ve geçerliliği ise kısa dönemde farklılaşmaktadır. Bu nedenle, adı geçen ülkelerin ekonomik büyüme sürecinde uygulayacakları enerji politikalarını belirlerken, dönemsel farklılıkları göz önünde bulundurmaları gerekmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ekonomik büyüme, enerji tüketimi, Şanghay işbirliği örgütü

Kaynakça

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