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Order, Disorder, Reorder: Can The Liberal International Order “Survive” the Sino-American Competition?

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 309 - 327, 26.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.14782/marmarasbd.1241924

Öz

The future of international politics today hinges on how the Sino-American rivalry unfolds. Views
vary from expectations of peaceful evolution to hegemonic transition, but many fail to recognize
the significant role the liberal international order (LIO) can play in shaping the course of events.
Thanks to its structure and adaptability, the LIO is more than the mere environment surrounding
this rivalry and may be the primary determinant of American and Chinese choices, steering relations
toward cooperation. The success of the LIO during the post-WWII era is notably the product of the
environment it has managed to create, characterized by mutual gains, as well as considerable costs in
the event of a revisionist disruption. Moreover, the LIO has a structural character that enables it to exert
influence on state behavior. This article, drawing on liberal internationalist theory, contends that the
LIO demonstrates the substantial potential to emerge as the ultimate “victor” amidst the intensifying
rivalry between the two major actors. By evaluating multiple arguments, the analysis concludes that a
reformed version of the LIO, which accommodates both American and Chinese aspirations, includes a
dual leadership mechanism in decision-making, and reflects the newly shaped power dynamics, offers
a viable solution to the Sino-American competition.

Kaynakça

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Düzen, Düzensizlik, Yeniden Düzen: Liberal Uluslararası düzen Çin-Amerikan Rekabetini “Atlatabilir” mi?

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 309 - 327, 26.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.14782/marmarasbd.1241924

Öz

Günümüzde uluslararası siyasetin geleceği, Çin-Amerikan rekabetinin nasıl şekilleneceğine bağlıdır. Bu
rekabete ilişkin beklentiler, barışçıl evrimden hegemonik bir güç geçişi olasılığına kadar uzanmaktadır,
ancak liberal uluslararası düzenin olayların seyrini şekillendirme olasılığının genelde göz ardı
edildiği görülmektedir. Yapısı ve uyum yeteneğine bağlı olarak söz konusu düzen, bu rekabetin içinde
cereyan ettiği ortamdan çok daha fazlasını ifade etmektedir. Amerikan ve Çin tercihlerinin önemli
bir belirleyicisi olma ve ilişkileri iş birliğine doğru yöneltme kapasitesine sahiptir. Liberal uluslararası
düzenin İkinci Dünya Savaşı sonrası dönemdeki başarısı, yaratmayı başardığı, karşılıklı kazanımların
yanı sıra revizyonist dönüşümlerde yüksek maliyet yaratma gücüne sahip olmasıyla tanımlanan ortamın
ürünüdür. Ayrıca bu düzen, devlet davranışı üzerinde etkili olmasını sağlayan yapısal bir karaktere
de sahiptir. Liberal uluslararasıcı teoriye dayanan bu makale, liberal uluslararası düzenin yoğunlaşan büyük güç rekabetinin sonuçta kazananı olma olasılığının yüksek olduğunu savunmaktadır. Çeşitli
argümanlara dayanan bu analiz, tarafların beklentilerine uygun, karar almaya ilişkin ikili bir liderlik
mekanizması içeren ve yeniden şekillenen güç dinamiklerini yansıtan bir biçimde dönüşecek liberal
uluslararası düzenin Çin-Amerikan çatışmasının çözümünde merkezi önemde olduğu sonucuna
varmaktadır.

Kaynakça

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  • Chow, G. C. (2003). Impact of Joining the WTO on China’s Economic, Legal, and Political Institutions. Pacific Economic Review, 8(2), 105–115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2003.00213.x
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  • Leonard, T. G. A., Ivan Krastev, Mark, Krastev, I., & Leonard, M. (2023, February 22). United West, Divided from the Rest: Global Public Opinion One year into Russia’s War on Ukraine. ECPR. Retrieved from https://ecfr.eu/publication/united-west-divided-from-the-rest-global-public-opinion-one-yearinto-russias-war-on-ukraine/
  • Li, A. H. F. (2017). China Facing the Trump Presidency: Opportunities for Global Power Projection? China Perspectives, 2017(2), 69–73. https://doi.org/10.4000/chinaperspectives.7357 Li, X. (2012). Understanding China’s Behavioral Change in the WTO Dispute Settlement System. Asian Survey, 52(6), 1111–1137. https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2012.52.6.1111 Lu, Y.-C. (2012). China and the Liberal International Order: Did China’s Accession to WTO Shape Its Behavior? SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2125559
  • Mead, W. R. (2014). The Return of Geopolitics: The Revenge of the Revisionist Powers. Foreign Affairs, 93(3), 69–79.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (2001). The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton.
  • Mearsheimer, J. J. (2019). Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order. International Security, 43(4), 7–50. https://doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00342 Mueller, J. E. (1996). Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence of Major War. New York: Basic Books. National Security Strategy of the United States of America. (2017). Retrieved from https://trumpwhitehouse. archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
  • Net trade in goods and services (BoP, current US$)—China | Data. (n.d.). World Bank. Retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BN.GSR.GNFS.CD?end=2020&locations=CN&start=2000
  • Nye, J. S. (2015). Is the American Century Over? Cambridge: Polity.
  • Organski, A. F. K. (1958). World Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
  • Paul, T. V. (2021). Globalization, Deglobalization and Reglobalization: Adapting Liberal International Order. International Affairs, 97(5), 1599–1620. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiab072
  • Pompeo, M. R. (2020, July 23). Communist China and the Free World’s Future. United States Department of State. Retrieved from https://2017-2021.state.gov/communist-china-and-the-free-worlds-future-2/ index.html
  • Powaski, R. E. (2019). Ideals, Interests, and U.S. Foreign Policy from George H. W. Bush to Donald Trump. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-97295-4
  • Qingguo, J. (2008). Learning to Live with the Hegemon: China’s Policy toward the U.S.A. Since the End of the Cold War. In S. Zhao (Ed.), China-U.S. Relations Transformed: Perspectives and Strategic Interactions (pp. 45–57). New York: Routledge.
  • Ray, A. (2002). The Chinese Economic Miracle: Lessons to Be Learnt. Economic and Political Weekly, 37(37), 3835–3848.
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  • Remarks by President Obama and President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China Before Bilateral Meeting. (2013, June 7). The White House. Retrieved from https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/ the-press-office/2013/06/07/remarks-president-obama-and-president-xi-jinping-peoples-republicchinaRice, C. (2005, March 19). Remarks at Sophia University. U.S. Department of State Archive Retrieved from https://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/rm/2005/43655.htm
  • Rose, G. (2015). What Obama Gets Right: Keep Calm and Carry the Liberal Order On. Foreign Affairs, 94(5), 2–12.
  • Rudolf, P. (2020). The Sino-American world conflict. SWP Research Paper, (3). https://doi. org/10.18449/2020RP03
  • Shambaugh, D. (2000). Sino-American Strategic Relations: From Partners to Competitors. Survival, 42(1), 97–115. https://doi.org/10.1080/713660152
  • Sharma, S. D. (2020). Trump and the End of an Era? The Liberal International Order in Perspective. The International Spectator, 55(3), 82–97. https://doi.org/10.1080/03932.729.2020.1786927
  • Stephen, M. D., & Skidmore, D. (2019). The AIIB in the Liberal International Order. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 12(1), 61–91. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjip/poy021
  • Sutter, R. G. (2010). U.S.-Chinese Relations: Perilous Past, Pragmatic Present. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. The 2018 National Defense Strategy. (2018). U.S. Department of Defense. Retrieved from https://www.hsdl. org/c/2018-national-defense-strategy/ The Longer Telegram: Toward a New American China Strategy. (2021, January 28). Atlantic Council. Retrieved from https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/atlantic-council-strategy-paperseries/the-longer-telegram/
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  • Thucydides. (1974). History of the Peloponnesian War (M. Finley, Ed.; R. Warner, Trans.). London: Penguin.
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  • Villepin: War is Acknowledgment of Failure. (2003, March 9). CNN Retrieved from https://edition.cnn. com/2003/WORLD/meast/03/07/villepin.transcript/
  • Whiting, A. S. (1995). Chinese Nationalism and Foreign Policy after Deng. The China Quarterly, (142), 295– 316. https://doi.org/10.1017/S030.574.1000034950.
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  • Wright, T. (2020, November 22). The Fraught Politics Facing Biden’s Foreign Policy. Brookings. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/11/23/the-fraught-politics-facingbidens-foreign-policy/
  • Wunderlich, U. (2022, April 5). Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: A Turning Point for European Integration? LSE Blogs. Retrieved from https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2022/04/05/russias-invasion-of-ukrainea-turning-point-for-european-integration/
  • Zakaria, F. (2011). The Post-American World: Release 2.0. New York: W.W. Norton.
  • Zhong, R., & Mozur, P. (2018, March 23). For the U.S. and China, a Technology Cold War That’s Freezing Over. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/23/technology/ trump-china-tariffs-tech-cold-war.html
  • Zoellick, R. B. (2005, September 21). Whither China: From Membership to Responsibility? Retrieved from https://2001-2009.state.gov/s/d/former/zoellick/rem/53682.htm
Toplam 95 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Uluslararası İlişkiler
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Can Donduran 0000-0003-2737-1410

Yayımlanma Tarihi 26 Eylül 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Donduran, C. (2023). Order, Disorder, Reorder: Can The Liberal International Order “Survive” the Sino-American Competition?. Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi, 11(2), 309-327. https://doi.org/10.14782/marmarasbd.1241924