Politik Risk ve Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım Arasındaki İlişki: Kuzey Afrika Ülkeleri İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz

Öz

Bu çalışma, politik risk ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri arasındaki ilişkiyi dışa açıklık oranı, tüketici fiyat endeksi ve kişibaşı GSYH gibi bazı kontrol değişkenlerin yardımıyla tespit etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Kuzey Afrika ülkelerinde doğrudan yabancı yatırımların belirleyicileri üzerine az sayıda çalışma yapılmış olması nedeniyle 6 Kuzey Afrika ülkesine 1996-2014 döneminde gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerinde politik risklerin etkisi, yatay kesit bağımlılığı ve heterojen panel yapısı dikkate alınarak incelenmiştir. Pedroni (1999) ve Johansen-Fisher eşbütünleşme testleri ile uzun dönemde değişkenler arasında ilişki olduğu belirlenmiştir. FMOLS tahmincisi ile elde edilen sonuçlar ülke bazında farklılık gösterse de düşük düzeyde politik riskin doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri üzerinde pozitif etkisi olduğunu göstermiştir. Canning ve Pedroni (2008) nedensellik testine göre 4 ülkede (Cezayir, Libya, Tunus ve Mısır) politik risk ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişleri arasında nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir. Bu doğrultuda ilgili ülkelerde politik riskin doğrudan yabancı yatırımların önemli bir belirleyicisi olduğu ifade edilebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırım
• Politik Risk
• Kuzey Afrika Ülkeleri
• Panel Eşbütünleşme

The Nexus between Political Risks and Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Analysis for North African Countries

Öz

Drawing from the ICRG data set, this study aims to analyze the intricate linkage between political risks and foreign direct investment via a number of control variables including trade openness, the consumer price index and per capita GDP.  Since there has been a paucity of research on certain determinants of FDI in the North African context, we examine the impact of political risks on foreign direct investment inflows in six North African countries covering the period 1996-2014 accounting for the presence of possible cross- sectional dependence in the heterogeneous panel data. Whereas the results obtained from Pedroni (1999) and Johansen-Fisher co-integration tests show that there is a long-run co- integration relationship, coefficients obtained from the FM-OLS estimator indicate that a low level of political risks has a positive impact on the foreign direct investment inflows, albeit with some variation within select countries. The Canning and Pedroni (2008) causality test, on the other hand, finds evidence that there is a causal relationship between political risks and foreign direct investment for four countries (Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt) in the sample. Hence, the results suggest that political risks are significant determinants of foreign direct investment for an array of countries in North Africa.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Direct Investment
• Political Risks
• North African Countries
• Panel Co-integration

Teşekkür

Acknowledgement: An earlier version of this paper is presented at 6th International Conference on Social Thought and Theory in the MENA Region conference on December 14-15, 2017, Nicosia, Northern Cyprus. We are grateful to colleagues in the audience for offering insightful questions and comments.

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