THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOREIGN TRADE, EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KYRGYZSTAN AND KAZAKHSTAN

Yıl 2016, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 3, 89 - 101, 01.07.2016

Junus Ganiyev

Öz

The purpose of this paper is to study and comparatively analyze the relationships between exchange rate, import, export and GDP in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, with ARDL cointegration approach. The results showed that foreign trade has positive impact on economic growth in Kyrgyzstan, both in the short and in the long term, whereas Kazakhstan imports play a greater role in economic growth. On the other hand, it revealed that export in Kyrgyzstan in the short term depends on the GDP and imports; in the long term re-export is coming to the fore. Also, it turned out that volatility of exchange rates in Kyrgyzstan, increasing uncertainties and risks, have a negative impact on economic growth, while devaluation in Kazakhstan reduce imports in the short and long run

Anahtar Kelimeler

export, import, gross domestic product, ARDL cointegration approach, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan

Kırgızistan ve Kazakistan’da Dış Ticaret, Döviz Kuru ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki

Öz

Bu çalışmada Kırgızistan ve Kazakistan’da döviz kuru, ithalat, ihracat ve GSYİH ilişkileri ARDL koentegrasyon testi yaklaşımıyla incelenerek iki ülke arasında mukayeseli analiz yapılması amaçlanmıştır. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, Kırgızistan’da hem kısa hem uzun dönemde dış ticaretin ekonomik büyümeyi olumlu etkilediği; Kazakistan’da ise büyümede ithalatın daha büyük rolünün olduğu ortaya çıkmıştır. Ayrıca, Kırgızistan’ın ihracatı kısa dönemde GSYİH ile ithalattan etkilenirken, uzun dönemde reeksportun öneminin arttığı görülmüştür. Son olarak, döviz kurundaki değişmelerin Kırgızistan’da belirsizlikleri artırarak kısa dönemde ekonomik büyümeyi olumsuz etkilediği; Kazakistan’da ise devalüasyonların hem kısa hem de uzun dönemde ithalatı caydırdığı tespit edilmiştir

Anahtar Kelimeler

ihracat, ithalat, Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla, ARDL koentegrasyon yaklaşımı, Kırgızistan, Kazakistan

Kaynakça

• Abbas, Shujaat (2012). “Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Investigating Suitable Trade Policy for Pakistan”. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics 5 (10): 91-98.
• Arize, Augustine C., Thomas Osang and Daniel J. Slottje (2000). “Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence From Thirteen LDC's”. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 18 (1): 10-17.
• Brada, Josef C., Ali M. Kutan and Su Zhou (1997). “The Exchange Rate and the Balance of Trade: the Turkish Experience”. The Journal of Development Studies 33 (5): 675-692.
• Ganiev, J. and Baygonushova D. (2014). “Bajı birimdigi ölkölöründö jana Kırgızstanda tışkı sooda menen İDP baylanışı” (Kırgızca). Vestnik KEU 2(29): 69-71.
• Gül, Ekrem, Ahmet Kamacı ve Serkan Konya (2013). “Dış Ticaretin Büyüme Üzerine Etkileri: Türk Cumhuriyetleri ve Türkiye Örneği”. Akademik Bakış Dergisi (E-dergi) 35: 1-12.
• Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich and Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah. “Exchange Rate Risk and Trade Flows: the Case of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine”. Working paper No 11/09E. Economics Education and Research Consortium Working Paper Series.
• Hatemi-j, Abdulnasser (2002). “Export Performance and Economic Growth Nexus in Japan: a Bootstrap Approach”. Japan and the World Economy 14 (1): 25-33.
• Jouini, Jamel (2015). “Linkage between International Trade and Economic Growth in GCC Countries: Empirical Evidence from PMG Estimation Approach”. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development 24 (3): 341–372.
• Lee, Jong-Wha (1995), “Capital Goods Imports and Long-Run Growth”. Journal of Development Economics 48 (1): 91-110.
• Narayan, Paresh Kumar (2005). “The Saving and Investment Nexus for China: Evidence from Cointegration Tests”. Applied Economics 37 (17): 1979-1990.
• Pesaran, Hashem M. and Shin Yongcheol (1995). “Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”. DAE Working Paper Series No. 9514. Cambridge: Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge.
• Pesaran, Hashem M. and Shin Yongcheol (1999). “Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis”. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Pesaran, Hashem M., Shin Yongcheol and Smith Richard J. (2001). “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16: 289-326.
• Ramos, Francisco F. Ribeiro (2001). “Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in Portugal: Evidence from Causality and Cointegration Analysis”. Economic Modelling 18: 613-623.
• Saraç, Taha Bahadır (2013). “İhracat ve İthalatın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”. Ege Akademik Bakış 13 (2): 181-194.
• Talantuly, Nurmaganbet E., Nakisheva Makhabbat K. and Daribayeva Meruyert Zh. (2012). “Modern Foreign Trade Activities of Kazakhstan Republic”. World Applied Sciences Journal 18 (Special Issue of Economics): 111-117.
• Thornton, John (1997). “Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from 19th Century Europe”. Economic Letters 55 (2): 235-240.
• Tuncer, İsmail (2002). “Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat ve Büyüme: Toda-Yamamoto Yöntemiyle Granger Nedensellik Analizleri (1980-2000)”. Çukurova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 9 (9): 89-107.
• Zhang, Xiaoming and Heng-fu Zou (1995), “Foreign Technology Imports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries”. The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper, No: 1412, Washington. Erişim Tarihi: 26.04.2016; http://www-wds.worldbank.org/.