The Impacts of Tourism Revenues on Economic Growth: Unit Root and Cointegration Tests with Structural Break for Turkey

Öz

Tourism sector has become one of the rapidly developing and expanding sectors of the world economy since the second half of the twentieth century. In addition to its foreign exchange-earning effect, tourism is an alternative source of growth for national economies with its significant contributions to national income, employment and balance of payments. With its versatile characteristics, the sector affects not only the economy but also the social and cultural life. Tourism is very important as a development factor in particular for developing countries including Turkey. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between international tourism revenues and economic performance, using data from Turkey 1987-2018. With this purpose, structural break unit root and cointegration tests was used. Cointegration relation among the series was observed based on cointegration test results. According to the long-term estimation results, tourism revenues have a positive impact on economic performance. According to the results of the error correction model, a significant relationship was found between tourism and all other variables. Therefore, according to the both short and long short run estimation results, tourism revenues have a significant impact on economic growth.   

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tourism
• Economic Performance
• ARDL Model

Turizm Gelirlerinin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Yapısal Kırılmalı Birim Kök ve Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Öz

Turizm sektörü yirminci yüzyılın ikinci yarısından itibaren dünya ekonomisinin en hızlı gelişen ve genişleyen sektörlerinden biri haline gelmiştir. Turizm, döviz kazandırıcı etkisinin yanı sıra milli gelire, istihdama ve ödemeler dengesine olan önemli katkılarıyla ülke ekonomileri açısından alternatif bir büyüme kaynağıdır. Sektör çok yönlü özelliği ile sadece ekonomiyi değil aynı zamanda sosyal ve kültürel hayatı da etkilemektedir. Özellikle Türkiye'nin de içinde bulunduğu gelişmekte olan ülkeler açısından turizm, bir kalkınma faktörü olarak son derece önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin 1987-2018 dönemi verilerini kullanarak uluslararası turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik performans arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu amaçla yapısal kırılmalı birim kök ve eşbütünleşme testleri kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme testi sonuçlarına göre seriler arasında eşbütünleşme ilişkisi görülmektedir. Uzun vadeli tahmin sonuçlarına göre, turizm gelirlerinin ekonomik performans üzerinde pozitif bir etkisi vardır. Hata düzeltme modelinin sonuçlarına göre turizm değişkeni ile diğer tüm değişkenler arasında anlamlı bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. Dolayısıyla kısa ve uzun dönem tahmin sonuçlarına göre turizm gelirleri ekonomik büyüme üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahiptir.  

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Turizm
• Ekonomik Performans
• ARDL Model

Kaynakça

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