الحقبة الجديدة في علاقات ترامب وبوتين في إطار البراغماتية والمصالح الإستراتيجية

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 14 Sayı: 2, 57 - 72, 01.06.2025

Mehmet Çağatay Güler

https://doi.org/10.36360/1560-014-002-004

Öz

تبدو طبيعة العلاقات بين الولايات المتحدة وروسيا غير معروفة خلال الولاية الرئاسية الثانية لترامب، ويعتمد مسار هذه العلاقات إلى حد كبير على التطورات المتعلقة بحرب أوكرانيا. يمكن أن يكون الوصول إلى وقف إطلاق نار مؤقت أو سلام دائم (وإن كان غير مرجح) بمثابة نجاح دبلوماسي واقتصادي لإدارة ترامب. قد يتصرف ترامب، في أثناء تعامله مع العلاقات بشكل براغماتي، بحيث تكون العقوبات والمساعدات المقدمة لأوكرانيا أداة للمساومة مع موسكو. إن احتمالات التعاون والصراع متشابكة. وتُعدّ عناصر الأرض النادرة، والتنافس على النفوذ مع الصين، والنقاش الدائر حول هيكل الأمن الأوروبي من بين العوامل الحاسمة. بالإضافة إلى ذلك، فإن للسياسات الداخلية الأمريكية والإستراتيجية الأمنية الروسية دورًا محوريًّا أيضًا في تشكيل الحسابات الإستراتيجية.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ترامب , بوتين , أمريكا , روسيا , أوكرانيا

The New Era in Trump-Putin Relations between Pragmatism and Strategic Interests

Öz

US-Russia relations seem to be uncertain during Trump’s second term as president, and the course of these relations largely depends on the developments related to Ukraine War. A temporary ceasefire or a lasting peace (although unlikely) can be conceptualized as a diplomatic and economic success by Trump Administration. Trump, while approaching relations pragmatically, may use the sanctions and aids to Ukraine as a bargaining tool vis-à-vis Moscow. The possibilities of cooperation and conflict are intertwined. Rare earth elements, power competition with China and the debate revolving around the European Security Architecture are among the determining factors. Moreover, US domestic politics and Russian security strategic are also pivotal shaping the strategic calculations.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Trump , Putin , America , Russia , Ukraine

Kaynakça

• Mehmet Çağatay Güler, “Washington's usual suspects: 2025 threat assessment report”, Daily Sabah, 4 Nisan 2025.
• “Trump speaks with Putin about ending war in Ukraine; John Roberts denounces Trump's call to impeach judge”, NBC News, 19 Mart 2025.
• Noah Keate, “Ukraine’s Brit allies cry ‘appeasement’ as Trump talks to Putin”, Politico, 13 Şubat 2025; Patrick Smith, “Joe Biden slams Trump for 'foolish' appeasement of Putin”, NBC News, 7 Mayıs 2025; Paul Dibb, “War and appeasement: why a deal with Putin will backfire”, The Strategist, 2 Aralık 2024, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/war-and-appeasement-why-a-deal-with-putin-will-backfire/ (Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2025).
• Christina Lu, “The Speech That Stunned Europe”, Foreign Policy, 18 Şubat 2025.
• Tennyson Dearing, “Europe must finally take charge of its security — starting in Ukraine”, The Kyiv Independent, 28 Şubat 2025.
• Tim Zadorozhnyy, “Trump calls Zelensky 'dictator,' warns of Ukraine's demise without elections”, The Kyiv Independent, 19 Şubat 2025; Rob Crilly, “JD Vance warns Zelensky he will regret ‘badmouthing’ Trump and condemns his ‘atrocious’ response to peace talks”, DailyMail, 19 Şubat 2025; Minho Kim, “Rubio Attacks Zelensky, Firmly Defending Trump and Vance”, The New York Times, 2 Mayıs 2025; Christopher Condon, “Bessent Calls Zelenskiy’s Stand at White House Unacceptable”, Bloomberg, 28 Şubat 2025; Jabed Ahmed ve Alicja Hagopian, “How Elon Musk weaponised X against Ukraine’s president Zelensky”, Independent, 12 Mart 2025.
• Andrea Shalal ve Joey Roulette, “Exclusive: US could cut Ukraine's access to Starlink internet services over minerals, say sources”, Reuters, 23 Şubat 2025.
• Patricia Zengerle, “US lawmakers look to boost Ukraine, sanction Russia, sources say”, Reuters, 14 Nisan 2025.
• Daniel Dale, “Fact check: It wasn’t ‘in jest.’ Here are 53 times Trump said he’d end Ukraine war within 24 hours or before taking Office”, CNN, 25 Nisan 2025.
• Alexandra Prokopenko, “Russia’s Economic Gamble: The Hidden Costs of War-Driven Growth”, Carnegie Politika, 20 Aralık 2024, https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/12/russia-economy-difficulties?lang=en (Erişim Tarihi: 09.05.2025).
• Choong-Koo Lee, “Putting the Screws on the Partnership Between North Korea and Russia”, War on the Rocks, 1 Nisan 2025, https://warontherocks.com/2025/04/putting-the-screws-on-the-partnership-between-north-korea-and-russia/ (Erişim Tarihi: 09.05.2025); Tom Balmforth ve Mariano Zafra, “Thousands of troops, millions of shells”, Reuters, 15 Nisan 2025; Tom O’Connor, “North Korea Is a Surprisingly Valuable Wartime Ally to Russia and Iran”, Newsweek, 7 Kasım 2024; Simone McCarthy, “As North Korea, Iran and China support Russia’s war, is a ‘new axis’ emerging?”, CNN, 24 Ekim 2024, Christopher S. Chivvis and Jack Keating, “Cooperation Between China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia: Current and Potential Future Threats to America”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 8 Ekim 2024, https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/cooperation-between-china-iran-north-korea-and-russia-current-and-potential-future-threats-to-america?lang=en (Erişim Tarihi: 09.05.2025).
• Camille Gijs, “Trump’s tariff war empowers Europe’s free traders”, Politico, 22 Nisan 2025; Jennifer Rankin ve Sam Jones, “EU suspends retaliatory 25% tariffs on US goods after Trump U-turn”, The Guardian, 10 Nisan 2025.
• Mehmet Çağatay Güler, “Security-seeking Europe should cooperate with Türkiye’s geopolitical axis”, Daily Sabah, 7 Mart 2025.