Öncü tarım ekonomilerinde tarımsal verimlilik perspektifi: Ticaret kapasitesi, büyüme, sermaye ve nüfus dinamikleri

Öz

Amaç: Bu araştırma, 1992-2023 döneminde öncü tarım ekonomisi ülkelerinde dış ticaret kapasitesi, ekonomik büyüme, sermaye ve nüfus dinamiklerinin tarımsal verimlilik üzerindeki etkisine odaklanmaktadır. Amaç bağlamında ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı, dış ticaret yoğunluğu, büyüme oranı, sabit sermaye birikimi, toplam nüfus, kırsal nüfus oranı ve tarımsal verimlilik arasındaki olası bağlantılar Çin, Hindistan, ABD, Avrupa Birliği-27, Brezilya, Endonezya, Türkiye, Rusya, Japonya ve Meksika örnekleminde irdelenmektedir.

Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Tarımsal verimliliğin itici faktörlerini belirleyebilmek amacıyla panel zaman serisi metodolojisi takip edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli denge ilişkisi belirlendikten sonra Moment Kantil Regresyon Yöntemi (MMQR) ve Panel Düzeltilmiş Standart Hatalar (PCSEs) tahmincileri aracılığıyla parametre tahminleri elde edilmiştir. Ayrıca nedensellik analizi ile değişkenler arasındaki ilişkilerin yönü belirlenmiştir.

Bulgular: MMQR ve PCSEs tahmincilerinden ulaşılan ortak bulgular; dış ticaret yoğunluğu, büyüme ve sermayenin tarımsal verimliliği artırdığını kanıtlamıştır. Aynı zamanda farklı kantil değerlerinde ihracatın ithalatı karşılama oranı ve toplam nüfusun verimlilik üzerinde olumsuz, buna karşılık kırsal nüfusun olumlu etkiler yarattığı raporlanmıştır. Nedensellik analizi bulguları ise amaç değişkeni dikkate alındığında dış ticaret yoğunluğu ve toplam nüfus değişkenleri ile tarımsal verimlilik arasında çift yönlü geri besleme etkili bağlantıları doğrulamıştır.

Özgünlük/Değer: Küresel tarımsal üretimin yaklaşık %75’ini oluşturan örneklem kümesindeki ülkelerde bu araştırmada kullanılan değişkenlerin tarımsal verimlilik üzerindeki bütünleşik etkilerini değerlendiren ampirik bir araştırmaya rastlanılmamış olması çalışmanın özgün değerine atfedilmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Dış ticaret kapasitesi
• moment kantil regresyon yöntemi
• nüfus dinamikleri
• sermaye birikimi
• tarımsal üretim değeri

Agricultural productivity perspective in leading agricultural economies: Trade capacity, growth, capital and population dynamics

Öz

Purpose: This research focuses on the impact of foreign trade capacity, economic growth, capital, and population dynamics on agricultural productivity in leading agricultural economy countries during the period 1992-2023. Within this context, the potential links between export-to-import ratio, foreign trade intensity, growth rate, fixed capital accumulation, total population, rural population ratio, and agricultural productivity are examined using samples from China, India, USA, European Union-27, Brazil, Indonesia, Türkiye, Russia, Japan, and Mexico.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Panel time series methodology was used to identify the driving factors of agricultural productivity. After determining the long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables, parameter estimates were obtained using Moment Quantile Regression (MMQR) and Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs) estimators. In addition, the direction of the relationships between the variables was determined through causality analysis.

Findings: The common findings from the MMQR and PCSEs estimators demonstrated that trade intensity, growth, and capital increase agricultural productivity. Simultaneously, it was reported that the export-to-import ratio and total population had negative effects on productivity at different quantile values, while rural population had a positive effect. The causality analysis findings confirmed that, when the objective variable is considered, the variables of foreign trade intensity and total population have a bidirectional feedback loop with agricultural productivity.

Originality/Value: The fact that no empirical research evaluating the integrated effects of the variables used in this study on agricultural productivity was found in the countries in the sample group, which accounts for approximately 75% of global agricultural production, is attributed to the originality of this study.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign trade capacity
• moment quantile regression method
• population dynamics
• capital accumulation
• agricultural production value

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