Türkiye’nin doğusunda bulunan Muş havzası birçok aktif fay ve fay zonuna sahiptir. Ayrıca bölge tarihsel ve aletsel dönemde yıkıcı etkiye sahip orta ve büyük birçok depreme maruz kalmıştır. Bu çalışmada, Muş havzasında 2010-2023 yılları arasında meydana gelen ve büyüklükleri Mw≥4.0 olan depremler kullanılarak bölgenin tektonik gerilme durumu Coulomb gerilme analizi ile incelenmiştir. Derinlik ile birlikte statik gerilme değişimlerini modellemek için farklı derinlik seviyeleri içim Coulomb gerilme değişimi haritaları oluşturulmuştur. Özellikle, Muş havzasının kuzey batısında bulunan Karlıova üçlü birleşimi civarında bulunan Kuzey Anadolu Fay zonu ile ilişkili Kargapazarı ve Elmalı segmentleri ile Varto Fay zonu boyunca sığ derinliklerde pozitif Coulomb gerilme değerleri göze çarpmaktadır. Bunun aksine, Muş şehir merkezinin doğusunda bulunan Bulanık Fayı, Haçlıgölü Fayı ve Malazgirt Fayı civarında ise gerilme değişiminin daha durağan olduğu gözlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak, Muş şehir merkezinin özellikle kuzey doğusunda sığ derinliklerde sismik aktivite ihtimali diğer bölgelere göre daha yüksektir.
Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı. (2023). Odak Mekanizmaları Çözümü. T.C. İçişleri Bakanlığı, Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başlanlığı. https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/event-focal-mechanism
Akay, E., Erkan, E., & Ünay, E. (1989). Stratigraphy of the Muş Tertiary Basin. Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration, 109, 51. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/bulletinofmre/issue/3928/461435#article_cite
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Alkan, H., Büyüksaraç, A., Bektaş, Ö., & Işık, E. (2021). Coulomb stress change before and after 24.01. 2020 Sivrice (Elazığ) Earthquake (Mw=6.8) on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14 (23), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-09080-1
Alkan, H., & Bayrak, E. (2022). Coulomb stress changes and magnitude-frequency distribution for Lake Van region. Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration, 168 (168), 141–156. https://doi.org/10.19111/bulletinofmre.990666
Ansari, S. (2016). Co-seismic stress transfer and magnitude-frequency distribution due to the 2012 Varzaqan-Ahar earthquake doublets (Mw 6.5 and 6.4), NW Iran. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 132, 129–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2016.10.006
Bayrak, Y., Yadav, R.B.S., Kalafat, D., Tsapanos, T.M., Çınar, H., Singh, A. P., Bayrak, E., Yılmaz, Ş., Öcal, F., & Koravos, G. (2013). Seismogenesis and earthquake triggering during the Van (Turkey) 2011 seismic sequence. Tectonophysics, 601, 163–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2013.05.008
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Caskey, S.J., & Wesnousky, S.G. (1997). Static stress changes and earthquake triggering during the 1954 Fairview Peak and Dixie Valley earthquakes, central Nevada. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 87 (3), 521–527. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0870030521
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Dhont, D., & Chorowicz, J. (2006). Review of the neotectonics of the Eastern Turkish–Armenian Plateau by geomorphic analysis of digital elevation model imagery. International Journal of Earth Sciences, 95, 34–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-005-0020-3
Emre, O., Duman, T. Y., Ozalp, S., Saroglu, F., Olgun, S., Elmaci, H., & Can, T. (2018). Active fault database of Türkiye. Bullettin of Earthquake Engineering, 16, 3229–3275. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-0041-2
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Gomberg, J., Reasenberg, P. A., Bodin, P. L., & Harris, R. A. (2001). Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the Landers and Hector Mine earthquakes. Nature, 411 (6836), 462–466. https://doi.org/10.1038/35078053
Göncüoğlu, M.C., & Turhan, N. (1985). Bitlis Metamorfik kuşağı orta bölümünün temel jeolojisi (Rapor No. 7707). MTA. https://eticaret.mta.gov.tr/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=18225
Harris, R.A., & Simpson, R.W. (1998). Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: A comparison of Coulomb and rate‐and‐state failure. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 103 (B10), 24439–24451. https://doi.org/10.1029/98JB00793
Işık, E., Bozkurt, N., & Taşkın, V. (2017). Muş İli yapı stoğunun Kanada sismik tarama yöntemi ile incelenmesi ve bölgenin depremselliği. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 21 (2), 421–429. https://doi.org/10.19113/sdufbed.46538
Işık, E., Büyüksaraç, A., Ekinci, YL., Aydın, MC., & Harirchian, E. (2020). The effect of site-specific design spectrum on earthquake-building parameters: a case study from the Marmara region. Applied Sciences, 10 (20), 7247. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10207247
Işık, E., Harirchian, E., Büyüksaraç, A. & Ekinci, YL. (2021a). Seismic and structural analyses of the Eastern Anotolian Region (Turkey) using different probabilities of exceedance. Applied System Innovation, 4 (4), 89. https://doi.org/10.3390/asi4040089
Işık, E., Ekinci, Y.L., Sayıl, N., Büyüksaraç, A., & Aydın, MC. (2021b). Time-dependent model for earthquake occurrence and effects of design spectra on structural performance: a case study from the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 30 (2), 215–234. https://doi.org/10.3906/yer-2004-20
İlker, S., (1967). Erzurum-Muş bölgesinde Karaköse J-48 a4, d1 paftalarının 1/25.000 ölçekli detay petrol etüdü hakkında rapor (Rapor No. 4177). MTA. https://eticaret.mta.gov.tr/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=4177
Keskin, M. (2003). Magma generation by slab steepening and breakoff beneath a subduction–accretion complex: an alternative model for collision-related volcanism in Eastern Anatolia, Türkiye. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 8046. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018019
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An Assessment of Earthquake Hazard for Muş Province and Its Surrounding Areas After the Kahramanmaraş-Centered Earthquakes on February 6th
The Muş basin, located in eastern Turkey, has many active faults and fault zones. Also, the region has been exposed to many medium and large earthquakes with devastating effects in the historical and instrumental periods. In this study, the tectonic structure of the region was investigated by Coulomb stress analysis using earthquakes with magnitudes of Mw≥4.0 that occurred in the Muş basin between 2010-2023. Also, we produced the Coulomb stress variaiton maps for different depth levels. The positive Coulomb stress changes are observed at shallow depths along the Kargapazarı and Elmalı segments associated with the North Anatolian fault zone and along with the Varto Fault zone located around the Karlıova triple junction. On the contrary, the stable Coulomb stress changes are observed in and around the Bulanık Fault, Haçlıgölü Fault, and Malazgirt Fault, located in the east of Muş City. As a result, the probability of seismic activity is higher at shallow depths, especially in the northeast of Muş City centre, compared to other regions..
Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başkanlığı. (2023). Odak Mekanizmaları Çözümü. T.C. İçişleri Bakanlığı, Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Başlanlığı. https://deprem.afad.gov.tr/event-focal-mechanism
Akay, E., Erkan, E., & Ünay, E. (1989). Stratigraphy of the Muş Tertiary Basin. Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration, 109, 51. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/bulletinofmre/issue/3928/461435#article_cite
Alkan, H. (2022). Crustal structure in and around the East Anatolian volcanic belt by using receiver functions stacking. Journal of African Earth Sciences, 191, 104532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2022.104532
Alkan, H., Büyüksaraç, A., Bektaş, Ö., & Işık, E. (2021). Coulomb stress change before and after 24.01. 2020 Sivrice (Elazığ) Earthquake (Mw=6.8) on the East Anatolian Fault Zone. Arabian Journal of Geosciences, 14 (23), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-021-09080-1
Alkan, H., & Bayrak, E. (2022). Coulomb stress changes and magnitude-frequency distribution for Lake Van region. Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration, 168 (168), 141–156. https://doi.org/10.19111/bulletinofmre.990666
Ansari, S. (2016). Co-seismic stress transfer and magnitude-frequency distribution due to the 2012 Varzaqan-Ahar earthquake doublets (Mw 6.5 and 6.4), NW Iran. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 132, 129–137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2016.10.006
Bayrak, Y., Yadav, R.B.S., Kalafat, D., Tsapanos, T.M., Çınar, H., Singh, A. P., Bayrak, E., Yılmaz, Ş., Öcal, F., & Koravos, G. (2013). Seismogenesis and earthquake triggering during the Van (Turkey) 2011 seismic sequence. Tectonophysics, 601, 163–176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2013.05.008
Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Kandilli Rasathanesi ve Deprem Araştırma Enstitüsü. (2023). Kandilli Rasathanesi BDTİM Deprem Sorgulama Sistemi. Boğaziçi Üniversitesi. http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/sismo/zeqdb/
Bozkurt, E. (2001). Neotectonics of Türkiye-a synthesis. Geodinamica Acta, 14 (1–3), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/09853111.2001.11432432
Caskey, S.J., & Wesnousky, S.G. (1997). Static stress changes and earthquake triggering during the 1954 Fairview Peak and Dixie Valley earthquakes, central Nevada. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 87 (3), 521–527. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0870030521
Demirtaşlı, E., & Pisoni, C. (1965). Ahlat-Adilcevaz bölgesinin jeolojisi (Van gölü kuzeyi). Bulletin of the Mineral Research and Exploration, 64 (64), 22–43. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/bulletinofmre/issue/3890/51943
Dhont, D., & Chorowicz, J. (2006). Review of the neotectonics of the Eastern Turkish–Armenian Plateau by geomorphic analysis of digital elevation model imagery. International Journal of Earth Sciences, 95, 34–49. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00531-005-0020-3
Emre, O., Duman, T. Y., Ozalp, S., Saroglu, F., Olgun, S., Elmaci, H., & Can, T. (2018). Active fault database of Türkiye. Bullettin of Earthquake Engineering, 16, 3229–3275. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-016-0041-2
Elnaif, S. (1969). Muş kuzey sahasının petrol etüdü raporu (1: 25 000 ölçekli Erzurum-J47d4 Muş-K47a. a; K47b3 b4; K47a3; K46a3 b3, b4; K47d2; K48a4 d1 paftaları) (Rapor No.714296). MTA. https://eticaret.mta.gov.tr/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=4296
Freund, R., Garfunkel, Z., Zak, I., Goldberg, M., Weissbrod, T., Derin, B., Bender, F., Wellings, F.E., & Girdler, R.W. (1970). The shear along the Dead Sea rift. Philosophical Transactions for the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, 267, 107–130. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.1970.0027
Gomberg, J., Reasenberg, P. A., Bodin, P. L., & Harris, R. A. (2001). Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the Landers and Hector Mine earthquakes. Nature, 411 (6836), 462–466. https://doi.org/10.1038/35078053
Göncüoğlu, M.C., & Turhan, N. (1985). Bitlis Metamorfik kuşağı orta bölümünün temel jeolojisi (Rapor No. 7707). MTA. https://eticaret.mta.gov.tr/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=18225
Harris, R.A., & Simpson, R.W. (1998). Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: A comparison of Coulomb and rate‐and‐state failure. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 103 (B10), 24439–24451. https://doi.org/10.1029/98JB00793
Işık, E., Bozkurt, N., & Taşkın, V. (2017). Muş İli yapı stoğunun Kanada sismik tarama yöntemi ile incelenmesi ve bölgenin depremselliği. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi, 21 (2), 421–429. https://doi.org/10.19113/sdufbed.46538
Işık, E., Büyüksaraç, A., Ekinci, YL., Aydın, MC., & Harirchian, E. (2020). The effect of site-specific design spectrum on earthquake-building parameters: a case study from the Marmara region. Applied Sciences, 10 (20), 7247. https://doi.org/10.3390/app10207247
Işık, E., Harirchian, E., Büyüksaraç, A. & Ekinci, YL. (2021a). Seismic and structural analyses of the Eastern Anotolian Region (Turkey) using different probabilities of exceedance. Applied System Innovation, 4 (4), 89. https://doi.org/10.3390/asi4040089
Işık, E., Ekinci, Y.L., Sayıl, N., Büyüksaraç, A., & Aydın, MC. (2021b). Time-dependent model for earthquake occurrence and effects of design spectra on structural performance: a case study from the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey. Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences, 30 (2), 215–234. https://doi.org/10.3906/yer-2004-20
İlker, S., (1967). Erzurum-Muş bölgesinde Karaköse J-48 a4, d1 paftalarının 1/25.000 ölçekli detay petrol etüdü hakkında rapor (Rapor No. 4177). MTA. https://eticaret.mta.gov.tr/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=4177
Keskin, M. (2003). Magma generation by slab steepening and breakoff beneath a subduction–accretion complex: an alternative model for collision-related volcanism in Eastern Anatolia, Türkiye. Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 8046. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL018019
King, G. C., Stein, R. S., & Lin, J. (1994). Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (3), 935–953. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0840030935
Koçyiğit, A., Yılmaz, A., Adamia, S., & Kuloshvili, S. (2001). Neotectonics of East Anatolian plateau (Turkey) and lesser Caucasus: implication for transition from thrusting to strike-slip faulting. Geodinamica Acta, 14, 177–195. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0985-3111(00)01064-0
Mallman, E.P., & Zoback, M.D. (2007). Assessing elastic Coulomb stress transfer models using seismicity rates in southern California and southwestern Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 112, B03304. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004076
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