Identifying the climatic refugia of terebinth (Pistacia terebinthus L.) in Türkiye

Öz

Although non-wood forest products are of increasing importance for rural livelihoods, the future of the species yielding them under climate change often remains uncertain. This study modelled the current and future potential distribution of terebinth (Pistacia terebinthus L.), an economically and culturally valuable non-wood forest product species, in Türkiye. In total, 204 occurrence records obtained from GBIF and subjected to a cleaning protocol were used together with eight bioclimatic and seven topographic variables; modelling was carried out in biomod2 using an ensemble framework of eleven algorithms. Future projections were generated for 2071 - 2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) using the CHELSA v2.1 database and the UKESM1-0-LL general circulation model. Of the 310 models calibrated, 194 met the performance criteria and the final ensemble achieved high discriminatory power (AUC = 0.923; TSS = 0.707). Temperature-related variables were the strongest predictors of distribution (51.8%), whereas topographic variables accounted for 32.9% of the explanatory power. The suitable area, 125,290 km² (16.2% of the national territory) under current conditions, expanded by 18.0% and 19.6% under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 respectively, while net change remained negligible under SSP3-7.0 (-0.2%). This apparent stability conceals a high spatial turnover, with about one third of the currently suitable area shifting location. Differences among scenarios followed the ranking of precipitation rather than temperature, indicating that water availability is the primary constraint. Climatic refugia retaining suitability across all scenarios covered 74,106 km², clustered along the Aegean and Mediterranean coastal belt, and provide priority areas for in situ conservation.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Biomod2
• Climate change
• Non-wood forest products
• Ensemble modelling
• Species distribution model

Menengicin (Pistacia terebinthus L.) Türkiye’deki iklim sığınaklarının belirlenmesi

Öz

Odun dışı orman ürünleri kırsal geçim kaynakları açısından artan bir öneme sahip olmakla birlikte, bu ürünleri sağlayan türlerin iklim değişikliği karşısındaki geleceği çoğunlukla belirsizdir. Bu çalışmada, ekonomik ve kültürel değeri yüksek bir odun dışı orman ürünü türü olan menengicin (Pistacia terebinthus L.) Türkiye’deki güncel ve gelecekteki potansiyel yayılış alanları modellenmiştir. GBIF veri tabanından elde edilen ve temizleme protokolünden geçirilen 204 varlık kaydı ile sekiz biyoiklimsel ve yedi topografik değişken kullanılmıştır. Modelleme biomod2 ortamında 11 algoritmadan oluşan bir topluluk çerçevesiyle yürütülmüştür. Gelecek projeksiyonları, CHELSA v2.1 veri tabanı ve UKESM1-0-LL genel dolaşım modeli kullanılarak 2071 - 2100 dönemi için üç Ortak Sosyoekonomik Yol (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) altında üretilmiştir. Kurulan 310 modelin 194’ü performans ölçütlerini karşılamış ve nihai topluluk yüksek ayrım gücü sergilemiştir (AUC = 0,923; TSS = 0,707). Yayılışı en güçlü açıklayan değişkenler sıcaklık kökenli olmuş (%51,8), topografik değişkenler açıklayıcılığın %32,9’unu oluşturmuştur. Güncel koşullarda 125.290 km² (ülke yüzölçümünün %16,2’si) olan uygun alan, SSP1-2.6 ve SSP5-8.5 senaryolarında sırasıyla %18,0 ve %19,6 genişlemiş; SSP3-7.0 senaryosunda net değişim -%0,2 ile durağan kalmıştır. Ancak bu durağanlığın altında yüksek bir mekansal devir bulunmakta, güncel uygun alanın yaklaşık üçte biri yer değiştirmektedir. Senaryolar arasındaki farklılıkların sıcaklık değil yağış sıralamasını izlemesi, belirleyici kısıtın su rejimi olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Tüm senaryolarda uygunluğunu koruyan 74.106 km²’lik iklim sığınağı Ege ve Akdeniz kıyı kuşağında kümelenmekte ve yerinde koruma çalışmaları için öncelikli alanlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Biomod2
• İklim değişikliği
• Odun dışı orman ürünleri
• Topluluk modelleme
• Tür dağılım modeli

Etik Beyan

Etik kurul onayı gerekmemektedir.

Kaynakça

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