RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ

Abdurrahman Arslan; İmran Demir

doi:10.51763/uid.1576323

RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ

Öz

Bu çalışma, uluslararası ilişkilerde yaygın olarak kullanılan Rasyonel Aktör Modeli'nin, karar vericilerin bilişsel ve psikolojik sınırlamalarını hesaba katmaması nedeniyle uluslararası ilişkileri açıklamakta sınırlı kaldığını ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Yöntem olarak bilişsel ve psikolojik literatür üzerinden Rasyonel Aktör Modeli'nin temel varsayımları eleştirilmiş; bilişsel önyargılar, motivasyonel önyargılar, algılar, duygular ve inanç sistemlerinin karar verme sürecini nasıl etkilediği incelenmiştir. Bulgular, bireysel özelliklerin karar alma süreçlerinde önemli bir rol oynadığını ve tam rasyonelliğin mümkün olmadığını göstermektedir. Sonuç olarak, uluslararası ilişkilerin analizinde bireysel ve psikolojik faktörlerin dikkate alınmasının, Rasyonel Aktör Modeli'nin dayattığı rasyonel taslaktan daha gerçekçi ve faydalı açıklamalar sunacağı önerilmektedir. Bu bağlamda, bireye odaklanan Operasyonel Kod Analizi ve Verbs In Context System gibi yöntemlerin kullanılması tavsiye edilmekte ve bu yöntemler çalışmada tanıtılmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Allison, G. T. (1971) Essence of Decision. Little, Brown & Company. http://books.google.com.tr/books?id=aSk3ek0t54EC&hl=&source=gbs_api
Dougherty, J. E., ve Pfaltzgraff, R. L. (2001) Contending Theories of International Relations. Addison-Wesley Longman. http://books.google.com.tr/books?id=_0nDQgAACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
Dunning, D. (2001). On the Motives Underlying Social Cognition. In A. Tesser & N. Schwarz (Eds.), Blackwell Handbook of Social Psychology (pp. 348-374). Wiley-Blackwell. http://books.google.com.tr/books?id=lR-yvQEACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
East, M. A., ve Hermann, C. F. (1974). Do nation-types account for foreign policy behavior. In J. N. Rosenau (Ed.), Comparing foreign policies (pp. 269-303). Wiley New York.
Freud, A. (2018) The Ego and the Mechanisms of Defence. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429481550
Griffin, D. W., ve Ross, L. (1991). Subjective Construal, Social Inference, and Human Misunderstanding. In Advances in Experimental Social Psychology Volume 24 (pp. 319-359). https://doi.org/10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60333-0
Hudson, V. M., ve Day, B. S. (2019) Foreign Policy Analysis: Classic and Contemporary Theory. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=sCCmDwAAQBAJ
Jervis, R. (2017) Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton University Press. https://books.google.com.tr/books?id=nQUVvgAACAAJ

Jones, E. E., ve Nisbett, R. E. (1972). The actor and the observer: Divergent perceptions of the causes of behavior. In E. E. Jones (Ed.), Attribution: perceiving the causes of behavior (pp. 186). General Learning Press.
Jost, J. T., ve Sidanius, J. (2004). Introduction. In J. T. Jost & J. Sidanius (Eds.), Political Psychology (pp. 497). Psychology Press. http://books.google.com.tr/books?id=8qbSlYol80oC&hl=&source=gbs_api
Kahneman, D. (2011) Thinking, Fast and Slow. Macmillan. http://books.google.com.tr/books?id=SHvzzuCnuv8C&hl=&source=gbs_api
Kahneman, D., Slovic, S. P., Slovic, P., ve Tversky, A. (Eds.). (1982). Judgment Under Uncertainty. Cambridge University Press. http://books.google.com.tr/books?id=_0H8gwj4a1MC&hl=&source=gbs_api.
Levy, J. S. (2018). Political Decision‐Making. In C. J. Hewer & E. Lyons (Eds.), Political Psychology (pp. 168-188). John Wiley & Sons. http://books.google.com.tr/books?id=t6loDwAAQBAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
Levy, J. S. (2023). Foreign Policy Decision-Making: The Psychological Dimension. In L. Huddy, D. O. Sears, J. S. Levy, & J. Jerit (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of political psychology (3rd Edition ed., pp. 349-391). Oxford University Press.
Pieters, R. G. M., ve Raaij, W. F. v. (2010). The role of affect in economic behavior. In W. F. V. Raaij, G. M. v. Veldhoven, & K. E. Wärneryd (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Psychology (pp. 108-142). Springer. http://books.google.com.tr/books?id=7tFvcgAACAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api
Rokeach, M. (1989) Beliefs, attitudes and values: a theory of organization and change (9. print ed.). Jossey-Bass.
Ross, L. (1977). The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings: Distortions in the Attribution Process. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in Experimental Social Psychology Volume 10 (pp. 173-220). https://doi.org/10.1016/s0065-2601(08)60357-3
Schafer, M., ve Walker, S. G. (2006). Operational code analysis at a distance: The verbs in context system of content analysis. In M. Schafer & S. Walker (Eds.), Beliefs and leadership in world politics (pp. 25-51). Palgrave Macmillan.
Simon, H. A. (1964) Models of Man: Social and Rational (3. Baskı ed.). John Wiley & Sons.
Tversky, A., ve Kahneman, D. (1982). Introduction - Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. In D. Kahneman, S. P. Slovic, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment Under Uncertainty (pp. 3-20). Cambridge University Press. http://books.google.com.tr/books?id=_0H8gwj4a1MC&hl=&source=gbs_api
Walker, S. G., ve Schafer, M. (2006). Belief systems as causal mechanisms in world politics: An overview of operational code analysis. In S. G. Walker & M. Schafer (Eds.), Beliefs and leadership in world politics (pp. 3-22). Palgrave Macmillan.
Waltz, K. N. (1979) Theory of International Politics. Addison Wesley Publishing Company. http://books.google.com.tr/books?id=Z17uAAAAMAAJ&hl=&source=gbs_api Dergiler
Babcock, L., ve Loewenstein, G. (1997) Explaining Bargaining Impasse: The Role of Self-Serving Biases. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(1), 109-126. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.11.1.109
Burger, J. M. (1981) Motivational biases in the attribution of responsibility for an accident: A meta-analysis of the defensive-attribution hypothesis. Psychological Bulletin, 90(3), 496-512. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.90.3.496
Fischhoff, B. (1975) Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1(3), 288-299. https://doi.org/10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288
George, A. L. (1969) The" operational code": A neglected approach to the study of political leaders and decision-making. International Studies Quarterly, 13(2), 190-222. https://doi.org/10.2307/3013944
Jervis, R. (1988) War and Misperception. Journal of Interdisciplinary History, 18(4), 675. https://doi.org/10.2307/204820
Klaes, M., ve Sent, E.-M. (2005) A conceptual history of the emergence of bounded rationality. History of political economy, 37(1), 27-59. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-37-1-27
Kruglanski, A. W., ve Webster, D. (1996) Motivated closing of the mind: "seizing" and "freezing". Psychological Review, 103(2), 263-283. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.103.2.263
Kunda, Z. (1990) The case for motivated reasoning. Psychol Bull, 108(3), 480-498. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-2909.108.3.480 Lerner, J. S., Li, Y., Valdesolo, P., ve Kassam, K. S. (2015) Emotion and decision making. Annu Rev Psychol, 66, 799-823. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-010213-115043
Lerner, M. J. (1977) The justice motive: Some hypotheses as to its origins and forms1. Journal of Personality, 45(1), 1-52. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6494.1977.tb00591.x
Miller, D. T., ve Ross, M. (1975) Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction. Psychological Bulletin, 82(2), 213-225. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0076486
Nickerson, R. S. (1998) Confirmation Bias: A Ubiquitous Phenomenon in Many Guises. Review of General Psychology, 2, 175-220. https://doi.org/10.1037/1089-2680.2.2.175
Ross, M., ve Sicoly, F. (1979) Egocentric biases in availability and attribution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37(3), 322-336. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.37.3.322
Schafer, M., ve Lambert, J. E. (2022) Psychological Characteristics of Leaders (PsyCL): A New Data Set. Foreign Policy Analysis, 18(2), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1093/fpa/orac008
Sharot, T. (2011) The optimism bias. Curr Biol, 21(23), R941-945. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2011.10.030
Shaver, K. G. (1970) Defensive attribution: Effects of severity and relevance on the responsibility assigned for an accident. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 14(2), 101-113. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0028777
Simon, H. A. (1955) A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1), 99-118. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884852
Simon, H. A. (1957) Background of Decision Making. Naval War College Review, 10(3), 1-24. https://doi.org/10.2307/44640482
Simon, H. A. (1965) The Logic of Rational Decision. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 16(63), 169-186. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/xvi.63.169
Tetlock, P. E. (1998) Close-call counterfactuals and belief-system defenses: I was not almost wrong but I was almost right. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75(3), 639-652. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.75.3.639
Tversky, A., ve Kahneman, D. (1983) Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. Psychological Review, 90(4), 293-315. https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295x.90.4.293
Walker, S. G., Schafer, M., ve Young, M. D. (1999) Presidential operational codes and foreign policy conflicts in the post-cold war world. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 43(5), 610-625. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002799043005004
Walster, E. (1966) Assignment of responsibility for an accident. J Pers Soc Psychol, 3(1), 73-79. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0022733
Wason, P. C. (1960) On the Failure to Eliminate Hypotheses in a Conceptual Task. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 12(3), 129-140. https://doi.org/10.1080/17470216008416717
Webster, D. M., ve Kruglanski, A. W. (1994) Individual differences in need for cognitive closure. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(6), 1049-1062. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.67.6.1049
Levine, N., ve Young, M. (2014). Leadership Trait Analysis and Threat Assessment with Profiler Plus. Proceedings of ILC 2014 on 8th International Lisp Conference, New York, NY, USA.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Türkçe

Konular

Uluslararası İlişkiler (Diğer)

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Abdurrahman Arslan ^*
0000-0002-7789-1935
Türkiye

İmran Demir
0000-0003-1646-0311
Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi

30 Aralık 2024

Yayımlanma Tarihi

30 Aralık 2024

Gönderilme Tarihi

30 Ekim 2024

Kabul Tarihi

23 Kasım 2024

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2024 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.51763/uid.1576323

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA96WM59NN

Kaynak Göster

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Arslan, A., & Demir, İ. (2024). RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ. Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Diplomasi, 7(2), 18-39. https://doi.org/10.51763/uid.1576323

AMA

1.Arslan A, Demir İ. RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ. UİD/Jird. 2024;7(2):18-39. doi:10.51763/uid.1576323

Chicago

Arslan, Abdurrahman, ve İmran Demir. 2024. “RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ”. Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Diplomasi 7 (2): 18-39. https://doi.org/10.51763/uid.1576323.

EndNote

Arslan A, Demir İ (01 Aralık 2024) RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ. Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Diplomasi 7 2 18–39.

IEEE

[1]A. Arslan ve İ. Demir, “RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ”, UİD/Jird, c. 7, sy 2, ss. 18–39, Ara. 2024, doi: 10.51763/uid.1576323.

ISNAD

Arslan, Abdurrahman - Demir, İmran. “RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ”. Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Diplomasi 7/2 (01 Aralık 2024): 18-39. https://doi.org/10.51763/uid.1576323.

JAMA

1.Arslan A, Demir İ. RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ. UİD/Jird. 2024;7:18–39.

MLA

Arslan, Abdurrahman, ve İmran Demir. “RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ”. Uluslararası İlişkiler ve Diplomasi, c. 7, sy 2, Aralık 2024, ss. 18-39, doi:10.51763/uid.1576323.

Vancouver

1.Abdurrahman Arslan, İmran Demir. RASYONEL AKTÖR MODELİNİN ELEŞTİRİSİ, PSİKOLOJİK FAKTÖRLER VE OPERASYONEL KOD ANALİZİ. UİD/Jird. 01 Aralık 2024;7(2):18-39. doi:10.51763/uid.1576323